Even though he’s no longer a Phillie, I can’t help but root for Gavin Floyd. Sure, he was mediocre in his 110-ish innings in Philadelphia, but then again, what Phillies pitcher wasn’t between 2004 and 2006 besides, perhaps, Brett Myers? Besides, I really want the egg on the faces of the Phillies’ front office people because of how awful that Freddy Garcia deal turned out (they didn’t bother to have him get a physical despite obvious warning flags). Snarkiness aside, I think we all need to hesitate before crowning Floyd as The Next Big Thing. He is not, as a SportsCenter (or was it Baseball Tonight?) anchor claimed, “Growing up before our eyes.”
There’s no question he’s pitched beautifully so far this season, and he may very well have the prettiest curveball in baseball, and he’s oh-so-close to finally getting a no-hitter… but his BABIP is a lush .174, his strikeout rate (4.3 per nine) is alarmingly low for someone with as many out pitches as he has, and his walk rate is too high (4.1 per nine, and the reason why he managed to allow a run while maintaining a no-hitter last night against the Twins).
An average BABIP is in the .300 area, so Floyd’s .174 is just screaming for a regression to the mean. Despite a huge increase in fly balls (career average 40.5%; 53.4% in ’08), his HR/FB rate has actually managed to drop to 6.3% compared to his career average 14.2%. Additionally, among pitchers who have allowed 45% or more fly balls, Floyd has the lowest BABIP. The only other pitchers under .200 are Scott Olsen (.197) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (.189).
Another point to consider is that Floyd’s first two starts were against the Detroit Tigers before their offense started clicking (remember, they started 2-10 and scored 33 runs in those 12 games). Similarly, his two most recent starts have been against the offensively-challenged Minnesota Twins, who average a paltry 4.03 runs per game; he also faced the Orioles and their second-worst offense at 3.94 RPG, and the Yankees’ 8th-best offense at 4.44 RPG.
Enjoy what Floyd is doing and hope for more, but don’t be disappointed when he crashes down to Earth and starts putting up production more closely aligned with his 2007 season. There’s nothing in Floyd’s repertoire that signifies that this is a new Gavin: his pitch speeds are the same and there’s very little variance in the amount he’s using particular pitches. Fortunately for the White Sox, they don’t need to rely solely on Floyd to succeed in the surprisingly weak AL Central.