A while ago, I mockingly noted Ryan Howard's poor start to the season and noted his high total of strikeouts, putting him on pace to obliterate his own record for most K's in a season. Additionally, I laughed at the fact that teammate and pitcher Brett Myers had allowed more home runs than Howard had hit.

Howard's OPS was consistently at sub-.700 levels until about May 21 when it crossed that threshold for good. There's no significance to it, other than that it seems like it was when he turned things around. He still wasn't at his peak level, though. That may have come on June 27 when the Phillies were in Texas, as that was the start of a 13-game hitting streak that is still alive today. In those 13 games, Howard has a 1.255 OPS, 8 homers, and 18 RBI to go along with 7 walks and 16 strikeouts.

His current OPS of .835 would be fine for a lot of Major League players, but Howard has already established himself as one of the most fearsome hitters around and is more familiar with that OPS being around 1.000 than .800. So what have been the reasons for the offensive depression?

Looking at his OBP in previous years, starting in 2005 -- .356, .425, .392, .325 -- something sticks out, and unsurprisingly, it's this year's OBP of .325. That's a below league-average (.343) OBP. In 403 plate apparances, Howard has drawn 47 walks, 9 of them intentionally. In 648 plate appearances last season, he drew 107 walks, 35 of them intentionally. If we prorate Howard's current totals over 650 PA, he's on pace to only walk 76 times, 15 of them intentionally. He's missing about 30 less walks, about 70% of which should be intentional. If Howard was as fearsome to opposing managers this year as he was last year, he would have 96 walks, only 11 less than last year, and his OBP would be .398.

Howard's percentage of unintentional walks is higher this season (80%) than last season (67%). He's on pace for 66 unintentional walks this season as opposed to the 72 he drew last season. His batting eye so to speak, is relatively the same, at least in this instance.

Why isn't Howard a fearsome hitter anymore? He is on pace for 218 strikeouts, which might play into the reluctance to give him a free pass anymore, since he's the easiest player in the Majors to goad into swinging and missing.

Howard's batting average is also only .234, and before his 13-game hitting streak, it was .213. His expected BABIP based on his line drive rate (20.1%) is .321, but it is really only .272.  In 2006, Howard posted a similar LD% (21.9%) but had a .356 BABIP, higher than the expected BABIP of .339. Howard has been a bit unlucky so far this season, especially by his own standards, which is why his batting average is low.

Combine early-season decisions to pitch to Howard that yielded positive results for opposing managers with Howard's bad luck, and other managers see less and less of a reason to put him on first base intentionally.

If he was getting intentionally walked more, and if he had a little less bad luck on balls in play, Howard would be mentioned with Lance Berkman, teammate Chase Utley, and Chipper Jones in potential NL MVP talks.

Back on May 24, I commented on the volume of claims made within the first two months of the season attributing a lack of home run hitting and run scoring to stricter drug testing. The article I cited was written by Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post, who wrote:


Even further back, on May 9, I talked extensively about the lack of offense. I noted:


I included this handy-dandy screenshot of my Excel spreadsheet that organized the information:



Here's an updated look:



AL run-scoring and NL run-scoring have both regressed to the mean a bit: the AL run-scoring average went up; the NL run-scoring average went down.

It looks like the warmer temperatures, as expected, had at least some effect on the increase in offense. We still have the warmth of the next three weeks of July and the month of August for the offense to pick up even more.

The AL is on pace to score 706 less runs; the NL is on pace to score 590 less.
The AL is on pace to hit 105 less HR; the NL is on pace to hit 86 less.
The AL is on pace to walk 23 less times; the NL is on pace to walk 369 more times.

Even though the 2008 offenses still aren't up to par with '07, it isn't at all significant enough to signal some kind of effect from anything, especially MLB's drug policies; it's simple randomness.

It looks like those who were lauding the sport's tougher drug policies and crediting them with the drop in offense were hasty in jumping to such a conclusion, which isn't really a surprise. Too bad we won't see any, "Sorry, we were wrong" articles. The media has a hard time admitting fault!

Now that the C.C. Sabathia trade is official, teams that were squashed in the bidding by the Milwaukee Brewers' Minor League depth may feel like they still have to make a big move. Erik Bedard, a left-hander that the Seattle Mariners paid a hefty price for in the off-season, is heavily rumored to be available, and despite his sub-par 2008 season, he is probably the #1 target on a lot of shopping lists.

Proceed with caution with Bedard. Due to a decent 2006 season and an elite '07 season, his value is still extremely high despite not showing anything too impressive in '04, '05, or this season. Last season is aberrant, especially if you take a look at his K/9 rates. Going into '07, Bedard had never put up a K/9 above 8, yet in '07, he skyrocketed it to 10.93. That's nearly a 33% increase!

This season, his numbers are more in line with his career averages, even though he's pitched more than half of his starts in the most spacious ballpark in baseball, Safeco Field. In fact, there is a huge disparity in his home/road splits: Bedard has a 2.35 ERA at home in Seattle, and a 5.73 ERA on the road.

Bedard is having a mediocre season despite a BABIP at its lowest point in his six-year career. There's nothing abnormal with his peripherals other than his sudden conversion to fly ball proneness. In '07, 47.9% of batted balls off of Bedard were of the ground ball variety and 34.8% were fly balls; this season, only 40.3% are ground balls and 42.9% are fly balls. I think it's safe to assume that Bedard altered his pitching style to suit the large area in his home ballpark, and this is why his BABIP is so low -- the expected BABIP on ground balls is a bit higher than on fly balls.

The team believed to be behind the Brewers in the bidding for Sabathia was the Philadelphia Phillies, but it is a widely held notion that they don't even come close to the Brewers in Minor League depth. The Indians were considering taking "a larger volume of talent" from the Phillies, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.

It's likely that the Mariners would entertain the same offers from the Phillies for Bedard, since they appear to be heading into rebuilding mode anyway. The Phillies' talent is mostly at the lower levels, which suits the Mariners just fine. Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson would almost have to be locks in the deal, and that's far too high a price to pay. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, also finalists in the Sabathia bidding, have better Minor League depth than the Phillies and might be even more susceptible to overpay for the overrated left-hander, since the Rays have a lot of competition in the AL East and the Dodgers could run away with the mediocre NL West.

The most alarming aspect of Bedard's season thus far is not the sudden change in batted ball tendencies, or the non-11 K-rate; it's his inability to pitch past the fifth inning. He's only pitched more than 5 innings seven times in his 15 starts in '08. He averages nearly 17 pitches per inning and, as a result, he's usually close to 100 by the time the end of the fifth inning rolls around. Bedard taxes the bullpen. The Mariners have three pitchers in the top-15 among American League relief pitchers in innings pitched: Sean Green (5th, 48 IP), Ryan Rowland-Smith (12th, 40.2 IP), and Mark Lowe (14th, 40.1 IP).

For teams like the Phillies, Rays, and Dodgers -- teams who have had great bullpen performances thus far -- it would be a frivolous burden on the bullpen to acquire a pitcher who is so obviously unlikely to take you past the fifth inning.

When all is said and done, it's a better decision to go after someone cheaper, like the Phillies did with Kyle Lohse last season. As Nick Underhill of I'm Writing Sports pointed out, the big trading deadline pitching acquisitions usually don't pan out too well anyway:

I'm a bit late on this, but you'll have to forgive me. Being the clumsy mess that I am, I was writing this yesterday and accidentally clicked that big, fat, red X at the top-right corner of my browser window and lost all of my work with that split-second mistake. "Idiot" is fine, if you want to refer to me in the comments.

Click here to view my pre-season predictions. I'll refer to them as I list my first-half nominees. Most statistics do not account for Tuesday night's games.

Most Valuable Player

American League: Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees

Looking good so far, as A-Rod was my pre-season pick. Once again, his OPS rests in quadruple figures at 1.006 and he is fourth-best among qualified AL third basemen in RZR.

Runners-up: Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton.

National League: Lance Berkman, Houston Astros

He's a Triple Crown threat: second in batting average (.364), third in home runs (22), and tied for first in RBI (68). Berkman's got the leather, too, as he is the best-fielding first baseman in the National League.

I picked Chase Utley to win this award.

Runners-up: Chase Utley, Chipper Jones.

Cy Young

American League: Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians

Justin Duchscherer of the Oakland Athletics is a close contender, but there's such a disparity between his current ERA (1.91) and his ERA when you account for his defense (FIP: 3.19).

Lee isn't getting too much help from his defense, as his 2.34 ERA is only four points lower than his 2.38 FIP. Additionally, he has the American League's third-lowest WHIP (1.04). Last night, he went eight innings and gave up only one earned run on six hits and a walk, nothing abnormal there.

My pre-season pick was Roy Halladay, who isn't having a bad season, but he is pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays, whose offense is anemic. Pitchers, unfortunately, are still graded on wins and losses, and Halladay won't get too many wins, as I noted earlier this season.

Runners-up: Justin Duchscherer, Shaun Marcum.

National League: Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds

This is a close one, but Volquez gets the nod just ahead of Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has pitched just over ten more innings than Volquez, which counts for something, but Volquez has a better ERA and better K/9 and HR/9 rates. Neither play for contenders, so that isn't an issue (and shouldn't be one anyway).

I predict that Lincecum ends up winning it at the end of the season anyway.

My pre-season pick for this award was Aaron Harang. I got the team right, but Harang isn't having a great year, as his 100 ERA+ indicates.

Runners-up: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren

Rookie of the Year

American League: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays

My pre-season pick to win the award hasn't disappointed. Since his first game on April 12, Longoria has been an important part of the Rays' first run at the division title in franchise history. He hasn't been shabby with the glove (though it could use improvement), but has been potent with the bat, as his .341 OBP and .523 SLG indicate.

Runners-up: Jacoby Ellsbury.

National League: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs

My pre-season pick was Cameron Maybin, but the Florida Marlins have decided that he's not quite ready for the Major Leagues. Better luck next year.

The clear winner of this award in the NL is Geovany Soto, and he may be the first catcher to win it since Mike Piazza with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1993. Soto's .371 OBP and .517 SLG are part of why the Cubs have the league's best offense and why the club has its best chance to win a World Series since... that incident.

Runners-up: Joey Votto.

Manager of the Year

American League: Joe Maddon, Tampa Bay Rays.

Another correct pick for me (I pat myself on the back as I type this, while carefully avoiding accidentally clicking that X in the top-right corner). Honestly, I don't think managers have a huge impact on how successful their teams are, but since this award is handed out, Maddon gets credit for the Rays actually being good for the first time in eleven years.

Runners-up: Bob Geren, Ron Gardenhire.

National League: Fredi Gonzalez, Florida Marlins.

I had predicted that Clint Hurdle would lead the Colorado Rockies to their first division title in franchise history. How's that working out?

Gonzalez gets the award for taking the league's worst-run franchise and putting them in definite contention for a division title despite having an extremely low payroll (relatively speaking, of course). Only the Pittsburgh Pirates (26.7) have a roster with a lower average age than the Marlins (26.8).

Runners-up: Tony LaRussa, Lou Piniella

Comeback Player of the Year

American League: Jason Giambi, New York Yankees

After missing about half of the 2007 season and putting up an abysmal .236/.356/.433 line, Giambi has rebounded, playing in most of his team's game and putting up a line of .263/.398/.548 and should start the All-Star Game at first base in New York. Maybe it's the thong.

I had picked Kenny Rogers to win the award, and though he's come back, he hasn't been that effective.

National League: Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs

In a few days, Kerry Wood will have pitched more innings this season than he had in 2006 and '07 combined (44). Oh yeah, and he's kind of one of the top closers in the Majors. His 11.2 K/9, 2.43 ERA, and 0.861 WHIP are making other teams wish they'd taken a chance on him and his injury history.

Home Run Leaders

American League: Carlos Quentin, Josh Hamilton, and Grady Sizemore (19).

The trio are on pace for 38, 37, and 37, respectively. The AL home run leader hasn't had fewer than 40 HR since 1989 (Fred McGriff, 36).

I had picked A-Rod to finish with 51 dingers. His current total of 16 puts him on pace for 31.

National League: Chase Utley, Dan Uggla (22).

Who would have thought that, past the halfway point in the schedule, two second basemen would be tied for the Major League lead in home runs? Both are on pace for 43. The NL leader in home runs hasn't had 43 or fewer since 1995 (Dante Bichette, 40).

I had picked Ryan Howard to finish with 54 dingers. His current total of 20 puts him on pace for 39.

Most Overrated

American League: Subjective.

My choice, Erik Bedard, certainly has been overrated. After putting up a 146 ERA+, 1.088 WHIP, and 10.9 K/9 last season, Bedard has regressed to a 103 ERA+, 1.303 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 despite moving to baseball's most spacious ballpark in Seattle.

National League: Subjective.

I picked Aaron Rowand, especially since he hadn't done much to warrant the five-year, $60 million contract he got from the San Francisco Giants besides have two above-average seasons and bust his face in the center field fence at Citizens Bank Park.

However, I was wrong about Rowand. Despite moving to a more spacious ballpark, Rowand has put up a 117 ERA+ and has been the best-fielding center fielder in the National League.

Most Underrated

American League: Subjective.

I picked Brian Bannister, and while he had a good start -- a 2.48 ERA in his first five starts -- he has been below-average as a starter. He's averaging fewer than 5 strikeouts per nine innings, but the rest of his peripherals look all right: the walks and home runs are down.

National League: Subjective.

During the off-season, I ranted a lot about how badly people were underrating Brad Lidge. I'm proud to say that I was 100% right about that, at least thus far.

Lidge has been one of the best closers in the Majors, notching all 19 of his save opportunities and giving up earned runs in just three of his 32 appearances (9%), which is why his ERA is so low at 0.84. His 11.8 K/9 is amazing and he's yet to allow a home run (take that, everyone who thought he was mentally wracked about that Albert Pujols home run).

Breakout Player

American League: Josh Hamilton.

Like Lance Berkman, he's a Triple Crown threat: 10th in batting average (.312), tied for first in home runs (19), and first in RBI (80).

Cliff Lee gets a nod here, but since I already nominated him for the Cy Young and gave the MVP to A-Rod, Josh Hamilton gets some hardware here.

I had picked Jeremy Guthrie and I wasn't too far off, since he's having a decent season.

National League: Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Ryan Ludwick.

This is a triple-nominee. Volquez should win it, but again, since he already has some hardware, I'm making him share it.

McLouth and Ludwick should be starting in the outfield in the All-Star Game, but unfortunately, the fan voting is out of control and the less deserving Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Ken Griffey, Jr. will start.

Andre Ethier was my pre-season pick here but he's only put up a 97 OPS+.

Surprise Team

American League: Tampa Bay Rays

I win again.

National League: Florida Marlins

I had picked the Atlanta Braves, but they're three games under .500 while the Marlins are four games over .500 and only a half-game behind the first-place Philadelphia Phillies. Hardly anyone saw the Marlins contending after dumping Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis off in Detroit.

Disappointing Team

American League: Seattle Mariners

They're in last place and they've already fired their general manager and manager. That's the textbook definition of disappointing. My pick, the Toronto Blue Jays, are also in last place, and they should probably follow suit and fire GM J.P. Ricciardi and manager John Gibbons.

National League: Colorado Rockies

Last year's National League representative in the World Series currently sits in last place, 19 games under .500 and 10 games behind the division leader.

I picked the Milwaukee Brewers to disappoint, but they're in third place, 6 games over .500 and 5.5 games out of first place.

If the season ended today...

...here's what the playoff match-ups would look like.

Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies

I selected two AL teams correctly (Red Sox, Angels) and two NL teams correctly (Cubs, Phillies).

Feel free to voice your opinion on my pre-season predictions, my current award selections, or list your own in the comments.