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Sunday, June 29
by
Geoff Young
on Sun 29 Jun 2008 11:16 AM EDT
Have you noticed how well the Royals are playing? Saturday's loss notwithstanding, they've been on fire. Well, not literally, of course; that would be bad. But before last night, they'd won six straight and 11 out of 12. They even managed to extricate themselves from last place for a moment.
Sure, they got to play the Giants and Rockies during that stretch, but they've also had to face a tough St. Louis club, winning four of five against the Cardinals so far. The pitching staff is starting to Meche (sorry, couldn't resist!) and the bats have warmed up this month: Apr: .259/.316/.364, 3.70 R/G May: .258/.309/.358, 3.48 R/G Jun: .270/.323/.447, 5.12 R/G In particular, David DeJesus (.361/.426/.608), Jose Guillen (.353/.374/.647), and everyone's favorite savior Mike Aviles (.333/.360/.580) have provided a serious spark. No, it may not be enough to get the Royals into contention (although as of this writing they're only 8 1/2 games out of first place), but it could be enough to keep them out of the cellar. That may not seem like much, but for a team that has finished each of the past four seasons in last place, it's a start. Baby steps... Thursday, June 26
by
Geoff Young
on Thu 26 Jun 2008 10:49 AM EDT
Seems the Washington Nationals have offered shortstop Cristian Guzman a two-year extension. Yes, that Cristian Guzman, the 30-year-old switch-batter with the career .267/.304/.382 line.
Remember yesterday when I was carrying on about guys with 600 or more plate appearances in a season and 20 or fewer walks? Guzman was on that list. He did it in 2002. Of the 28 players who have accomplished the feat since 1961, only nine had a lower OPS+ than Guzman. He's right there with guys like Angel Berroa, Corey Patterson, and Neifi Perez. Check out Guzman's list of comparables through age 29 at Baseball-Reference and you'll find names like Jack Wilson, Royce Clayton, and the aforementioned Perez. With a bat like that, his defense had better be some kind of special. Is it? From what I can tell (just going by various metrics and Tom Tango's Scouting Report), and without much in the way of first-hand observation, Guzman appears to be an average or slightly above average fielder. I'm not sure that's enough to offset his generally lackluster offensive performance (this season's shiny .311 batting average notwithstanding). I guess my issue is this: The Nats have the worst record in the National League as of this writing. They are one of probably four NL franchises that should be looking for ways right now to build a team that can contend at some point. How does locking up a mediocre thirtysomething middle infielder -- a stopgap (and not a terribly scarce commodity) -- help achieve that goal? Wednesday, June 25
by
Geoff Young
on Wed 25 Jun 2008 02:15 PM EDT
While looking for something else (related to Jose Guillen, naturally) I found myself wondering if there had been any players in recent history who drew 20 or fewer walks in a season (minimum 600 PA) and still managed to be productive. As it happens, there have been a few since 1961. Six players have managed to post an OPS+ of 100 or better while meeting our criteria -- two have done it twice. In descending order of effectiveness, here are the Hacktastic Six: A complete list can be found at Baseball-Reference.
Rivers was amazing. He misses a third season (1977) by 6 plate appearances. He drew 18 walks that year and had an OPS+ of 115. In his case, this evidently was a repeatable skill. Rivers finished third in the AL MVP voting in '76, behind George Brett and winner Thurman Munson. Cantu, of course, is enjoying a resurgence in Miami this year. He's also drawn 23 walks already and we haven't even reached the All-Star break. Easy there, buddy. Templeton broke the 30-walk barrier four times in his 16-year career, topping out at 42 in 1987. Sadly, he never again reached the 100 OPS+ mark after age 24, although he came close in 1981 (98) and again in 1985 (99). Grissom was 36 when he accomplished the feat. His main weapon when he was younger had been speed, and much of that had disappeared by now. Never a terribly patient hitter, in '03 he completely abandoned any pretense of selectivity and got good results. Actually, he'd first tried the strategy in 2001 and it didn't work. Sure, he hit 21 homers that year, but with a .250 OBP. Way to stick with the plan. Davis played before my time, so I can't offer much in the way of commentary there. As for Garvey, this is just one of many reasons I never understood arguments in favor of sticking him in the Hall of Fame. I grew up bleeding Dodger blue, but let's get real. Garvey was a pretty good player, but so were Al Oliver, Dave Parker, and Rusty Staub. You don't induct a guy because he was a pretty good player, you induct him because he was great. Garvey wasn't great. Anyway, Guillen is on pace to join this list. I guess if that happens I'll have to come up with a snappy new moniker to slap on these guys, probably something really clever... like the Hacktastic Seven... Saturday, June 21
by
Geoff Young
on Sat 21 Jun 2008 11:26 AM EDT
A funny thing happened on the way to Tony Pena Jr.'s pursuit of Bill Bergen. Some guy named Mike Aviles came up from Omaha and started tearing the cover off the ball.
Aviles is the kind of player that usually doesn't get a chance to show what he's got. Then again, Pena is the kind of player that usually doesn't have a starting job in the big leagues. In 2006, Aviles hit .264/.307/.373 at Triple-A while playing mostly third base. He was 25 years old. The next year, still at Omaha, he hit .296/.332/.463 while splitting time between second, third, and shortstop. There's improvement, but he was repeating a level, so maybe we shouldn't be too surprised. This season, Aviles got off to a blistering .336/.370/.631 start at Triple-A while playing second base and shortstop. In 15 games since his recall, he's hit .309/.339/.618. He has twice as many extra-base hits as Pena in roughly a third as many plate appearances. Pena still amazes me, though. His OPS+ is currently -2 (yes, that's a minus sign). Ross Gload and Joey Gathright can be grateful for his presence; Pena makes them look great by comparison. Just for grins (or grimaces), here's what you get when you stick their three lines this year together:
Wait, why isn't this team winning games? Wednesday, June 18
by
Geoff Young
on Wed 18 Jun 2008 09:41 AM EDT
I'm still thinking about Hank Steinbrenner and his opinion of the National League. I'd rather not be, but I am.
Genius, that. Steinbrenner and the Yankees generally aren't on my radar. People sometimes ask me whether I prefer the Red Sox or Yankees. My stock answer is, whichever is playing one of the Padres' division rivals -- oh, the looks I get. Anyway, the point is that I'm thinking about Steinbrenner because of his goofy comments. And even if I weren't thinking about him, I'd be bombarded by media coverage (I know, I'm part of the problem). It doesn't matter how goofy Steinbrenner's comments are, he's got the sports world talking about him and the Yankees. Even guys like me, who just don't care about his team. Having no shame can be a tremendous asset if you understand how to make it work for you. Hank learned from the best, and now he's applying what he knows: It's not important what we think of the Yankees, as long as we think something. Tuesday, June 17
by
Geoff Young
on Tue 17 Jun 2008 12:22 PM EDT
I try to avoid the New York/Boston baseball scene as much as possible. Too much noise, not enough signal for my taste. Every now and then, though, something happens that makes it difficult for me to ignore. Recently it's been Billy Wagner taking shots at anyone in his locker room, but today we've got the double whammy.
Mets Fire Peterson Joe's got the dirt on Willie Randolph, but what's the story with pitching coach Rick Peterson? I thought he was supposed to be the new Leo Mazzone, the guy who can do anything with a pitching staff. What happened to that? Peterson is replaced by Dan Warthen, who has been pitching coach for some pretty lousy staffs over the years: Sea '92: 64-98, 87 ERA+ SD '96: 91-71, 108 SD '97: 76-86, 78 Det '99: 69-92, 94 Det '00: 79-83, 99 Det '01: 66-96, 85 Det '02: 55-106, 86 On the bright side, Warthen managed to get more out of Steve Sparks than anyone else ever did. So maybe if the Mets can find themselves a knuckleballer in his mid-30s, they'll be in good shape. For the record, here are the five best individual starting pitching performances under Warthen's watch, in order of appearance: Dave Fleming '92: 17-10, 117 ERA+ Fernando Valenzuela '96: 13-8, 111 Dave Mlicki '99: 14-12, 107 Jeff Weaver '00: 11-15, 108 Sparks '01: 14-9, 117 I can think of better endorsements... Wang Out for a Long, Long Time Meanwhile, over in the Bronx, we've got Hank Steinbrenner doing a nice impersonation of his dad. Seems right-hander Chien-Ming Wang injured himself while running the bases in an interleague game on Sunday and may miss the remainder of the 2008 season. Steinbrenner naturally places the blame on the National League: My only message is simple: The National League needs to join the 21st century. They need to grow up and join the 21st century. I've got my pitchers running the bases, and one of them gets hurt. He's going to be out. I don't like that, and it's about time they address it. That was a rule from the 1800s.One of the beautiful things about being a team owner is that you get to say pretty much anything, no matter how ill-informed or nonsensical it may be. Seriously, I want that job. Here's another crazy rule from the 1800s still in effect: four bases. What's up with that? Just simplify the game and say anything between the infield and outfield is a single, over the outfielder's head is a double, and over the fence is a home run. Sure, this eliminates triples, but those are boring anyway and besides, isn't it worth the cost to keep everyone (not just pitchers) from getting hurt on the bases? Pitchers can still get hurt throwing the ball, of course. They've been doing that since the 19th century as well, although not always overhand. Two possible solutions to this problem would be to use a) a batting tee (little kids do it, why not big men?) or b) a pitching machine. And then to eliminate potential injury to fielders, give each position a pre-defined range and put up those invisible fences that people use to keep dogs from wandering off somewhere. Leave a little gap between the infield and outfield for singles, and between outfielders and over their heads for doubles, and you're good to go. No more injuries, no more long-term contracts to pitchers. Just think of the savings! Cha-ching...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Tue 17 Jun 2008 12:57 AM EDT
For those of you unfamiliar with Alderson (and yes, you should be ashamed of yourself!), here's a little bit from Geoff's intro...
Now...stop...and go read Chatting with Sandy Alderson (Part 1) Friday, June 13
by
Geoff Young
on Fri 13 Jun 2008 03:21 AM EDT
I don't really have any words to accompany this... Miguel Cabrera: .278/.354/.461, 9 HR, $11.3 million Let's not even talk about Dontrelle Willis... |
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This is what my teachers would call required reading! Our very own Geoff Young kicked off a 3-part interview today with the great Sandy Alderson over at his own site,