Well, the Jays made that one unnecessarily tense. A five run lead in the eighth became a one run lead. A four run lead in the ninth became two men on, full count on Ruben Gotay with Chipper Jones (.394/.485/.630; 16 HR) on deck and a red-hot Mark Teixeira (also with 16 HR plus a double, two HR, 5 RBI and 3 BB thus far in the series) in the hole.

Sheesh.

Ah well … all’s well that ends well but I came up with new cuss words with Brian Tallet’s generosity (4 ER in the eighth) making it look like another late inning heartbreak.

A lot has been made about the Jays newfound success hitting being accomplished against mediocre pitching. In two of their last three games they’ve roughed up Edinson Volquez (4.1 IP 7 R 5 ER) and Tim Hudson (5 IP 6 ER) which is certainly cause for optimism in Toronto.

After consecutive David Purcey debacles resulting in 7.1 IP 9 ER and 11 BB over two starts it was nice to see a solid spot start with one of the fab five unavailable. I feel a little better about Shaun Marcum being out until after the All Star break with John Parrish’s solid 6 IP 1 ER 2 BB 4 K of work. If he logs another decent turn or two perhaps a spot on the roster can be made available and maybe seeing what Jason Frasor or Brian Tallet could fetch in a trade.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s done some solid work for the Jays but Tallet reminds me of a right handed version of Frasor--a good arm and ulcer-inducing results even when they succeed. While B.J. Ryan is good for getting the ol’ stomach acids percolating he generally comes through. Tom Henke was like that at times--he’d make ninth innings interesting before finally putting the game away.

Over the last six games, which included a 4-0 three hit loss Friday night, Toronto is batting .357/.444/.595 and .364 with runners in scoring position. Obviously that won’t stay up there but it provides reasons for hope at any rate. Yes, the newfound Jays aggressiveness will be noted by advanced scouts but let’s give Cito Gaston a little credit. He knows this will happen and will have the batters prepared to make adjustments again

The Jays have a deep hole from which they have to extricate themselves and 80 games to do it in. The Jays need to go 50-30 to finish 89-73 which, while difficult I do not think is unattainable if the pitching holds up. The thing is, what the Jays need is something they have already enjoyed this year--a major hot streak. The Twins have reeled off 10 in-a-row and 13-of-15, the Tigers have won 15-of-19 and Toronto had a 14-4 run in May. There’s no reason with improved hitting that the Jays cannot get hot again. If they do that they’re right back in the wild card hunt.

They’re taking the right approach--just trying to win series one at a time. Winning 2-of-3 is a .667 winning percentage and they need to play .625 ball in the second half to reach 89 wins. They have the right man at the helm in keeping an even keel, there is enough talent in the lineup for a league average or better offense--even with RISP and more than enough pitching if it remains healthy.

I will say this however, they cannot afford another cold streak like they just came off of and Toronto already has a seven and six game losing streak. One more losing streak of that nature and it becomes time to look towards 2009. The 2006 Cardinals had a seven and an eight game losing streak and made the post season in a weak division--the Jays are already trying to buck recent history. Rarely does a pair of losing streaks that length happen to a team that reached the post season.

Finally…

This week on THT I’ve discussed some concerns I have about sabermetrics in the articles I was born a ramblin’ man and A conversation with Bill Baer. Anyway, on Ball-Hype a poster named Bob R. made an excellent point on the science of sabermetrics that I thought I’d mention here: “Perhaps a minor point in the discussion you are having, but I think there is an error in identifying sabermetrics as science. More accurate would be to call it social science. Like economics or sociology et al, it may use a scientific method and rely on statistics, clinical research, model building and the like, but it always remains subject to the vagaries of human behaviour.

That is in no way meant to demean sabermetrics. Polling, for example, has become very reliable since "Dewey Defeats Truman", but it is still less certain than physics or chemistry. If we keep that distinction in mind, we may remain more modest in our assertions and less prone to dogmatism in our pronouncements.”       

Wise words indeed and something for all of us to keep in mind.

Best Regards

John

How long can the Halos keep this up?

They're 23-10 over their last 33 games despite batting .252/.315/.373--they have played 20 games where the difference in score has been two runs or less and won 17 of those games. In 2008, they have a team OPS+ of just 91 and an ERA+ of 107. The Halos bullpen has an ERA of 4.10--10th best in the AL. They only strong unit is the starting pitching where they are tied with the White Sox for second in the loop at 3.75.

To give you an idea of how anomalous the Angels’ year is, check this out:

Team  Pytha W-L  OPS+  ERA+  ERA (SP)  ERA (RP)   W-L
Jays    42-36     97   114    3.83       2.95    37-41
Angels  41-27     91   107    3.75       4.10    48-30 

That’s amazing.

Granted, over their last 33 games they have a staff ERA of 3.15 and are averaging a smidge over four runs per game. Still, that’s a staggering tribute to their consistency as regards run distribution. They also had 24 games prior to May 18 decided by two runs or less and went 14-10. Of their 78 games played, 44 have been decided by two runs or less and the LAA of A are 31-13 … a .705 winning percentage and that with a below league average bullpen no less!

The Jays, with one of the best relief corps in the league and a better overall offense (2.95 ERA) have played 43 games decided by two runs or less and are 17-26 (a .395 winning percentage). Interestingly, the Jays’ bullpen has an AL worst winning percentage (.211) with a 4-15 mark.

Ouch.

Other oddities include the Angels 15 comeback wins despite an anemic lineup (the Jays have 10); the Angels have blown 14 leads but the Jays’ superior bullpen and equally pathetic offense have blown 16 leads. The Halos are 5-3 in walk off games, the Jays 0-6.

To state the obvious--the Angels have been far more effective hitting with runners in scoring position. Is that the only reason for the discrepancy?

If any Angels’ fans wish to weigh in on whether it’s something in the water or what--be my guest. The games I’ve watched them play (against Toronto) are too painful to contemplate.

Regardless, both the Jays and Halos appear to be major aberrations. It will bear watching to see how the second half (yes, we’re almost there) will shake out with both clubs--one has been severely overachieving (I think--feel free to set me straight LAA of A fans), one badly underachieving.

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts--I think that Gary Denbo was the problem with the Jays’ hitters. No, I don’t expect the Jays to crank out 22 hits a night but it’s almost like the power switch has been turned on insofar as the offense goes. I do know the Gaston stresses building on what hitters do well rather than impose a certain one-size-fits-all philosophy as regards hitting.

I do think if the offense does become more consistent in putting up runs that it will improve the pitching staff since they won’t feel like they’re walking a tightrope every night. Just look at how well A.J. Burnett pitched with a lot of runs to work with--it’s just one start but these things have to start somewhere.

Finally, as regards my THT column today I would like to re-iterate that I am not anti-stats, or anti-sabermetrics although some did get that impression. What I am saying is that a lot happens in the game that defies statistical explanation. Baseball is unmatched as a game of variables and to capture it all statistically is like trying to build a sandcastle in the surf--it’s too unstable to build anything on with absolute certainty.

The only way knowledge can increase is by an admission of ignorance and limitation however there is a segment of the sabermetric community that feel they are the way, the truth and the life and nobody understands baseball except through them. These are the ones that will cause knowledge to stagnate. Once these ones can predict league standings and won-loss records with absolute certainty on an annual basis then they can state that they are the final authority on the sport. Until then, the best we can do is making educated guesses and we should treat them as just that. Each game is unique and will have its own particular fingerprint and require its own particular set of decisions.

Yes, there are some solid guidelines that can be referenced but these are not the last word on the subject. A valuable data point? Absolutely. However, as long as human beings are on the field of play the only correct answer is the one that wins a particular game. It may not be the correct answer yesterday or tomorrow but one game is already forever in the guide and the other is yet to be played and whatever decision wins that game will be the correct one.

Best Regards

John  

Was Gary Denbo the cause of the Jays limp lumber?

I agree with the Drunks and enjoy Mike Wilner's take on the Blue Jays. I do not always agree with him but that has never been a prerequisite for my being a fan of somebody's work.

If you don't know who Wilner is--he hosts JaysTalk on the FAN 590 and is part of the Blue Jays’ criminally underrated radio team that includes Jerry Howarth and Alan Ashby. Before Ashby, there was the unforgettable Tom Cheek (RIP) who uttered the memorable call “Touch ‘em all Joe! You’ll never hit a bigger home run in your life!!”

We miss you Tom. I had the privilege of meeting both he and Jerry Howarth (albeit on separate occasions) once and one day I may to a post about it. Suffice it to say, Cheek was a towering figure--at least 6’6” and maybe 6’7”.

But I’m digressing ... again.  

Obviously, I read Wilner’s blog and in the comments section I founding this gem (I have added a bit):

Year     BA   OBP  SLG
1996:   .288/.360/.436   5.38 R/G   100 OPS+
1997:   .287/.362/.436   5.50 R/G   108 OPS+
1998:   .288/.362/.460   5.96 R/G   117 OPS+
1999:   .282/.364/.453   5.56 R/G   110 OPS+
2000:   .277/.354/.450   5.41 R/G   104 OPS+
2001:   .267/.334/.435   4.99 R/G   100 OPS+
2002:   .275/.354/.455   5.57 R/G   114 OPS+
2003:   .271/.356/.453   5.38 R/G   115 OPS+
2004:   .268/.353/.458   5.54 R/G   112 OPS+
2005:   .276/.355/.450   5.47 R/G   115 OPS+
2006:   .285/.363/.461   5.74 R/G   112 OPS+
2007:   .290/.366/.463   5.98 R/G   118 OPS+

These are the offensive totals for the New York Yankees. Now find the year with the lowest SLG, the lowest R/G, the lowest BA/OBP and the lowest OPS+.

Found it? Yup--all came in 2001.

While they won the pennant that year, league average for hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) was .268/.351/.421 the Yankees went .255/.337/.412.

O.K. so what’s the big deal about 2001 anyway? Well, the Bronx Bombers hired Gary Denbo as their hitting coach that year. It was his only year in that role with the Yankees.

Also of note, when Denbo was the minor league hitting coordinator (beginning in 1997), in 1999 the Yankees hit 193 HR, in 2000 they hit 205 HR, the year he was with the parent club they hit 203 HR and he was gone. After that the Yankees hit 223, 230, 242 and 229 HR from 2002-2005. I’m not sure whether this is a legitimate data point but it is food for thought.

On THT last week I wrote an article that showed how far below league norms most of the regulars were hitting--especially with RISP. I stated:

The Blue Jays are getting .258/.328/.359; 4 HR 29 RBI production out their No. 3 hitters (the AL average is .264/.350/.430; 10 HR 41 RBI) and are receiving .272/.344/.416; 7 HR 34 RBI production from the cleanup spot (AL: .275/.352/.445; 10 HR 41 RBI). How bad is that? Well, a league-average eight-hole hitter hits about as well as a Blue Jays three-hole (hitter) and an AL average 6-7 hitter (somewhere between those two averages) is what the Jays are getting from their cleanup spot. Put another way, take two hitters from the bottom third of an AL average team and that’s what Toronto is using 3-4 in the lineup.

Getting back to the analogy used at the beginning—several people dying within a short time period may be coincidence, but when it keeps happening it becomes obvious something else is at play. Random variations in things like hitting with RISP/clutch hitting and the like happen at times. However, what are the odds that almost the entire lineup suffers from the same malady at precisely the same time? ... In big situations the Jays strike out, hit ground balls at infielders, lazy fly balls and pop ups. To use one example, the Blue Jays are hitting .215/.256/.446 with the bases loaded, while the other 13 teams in the AL are batting .300/.362/.467. With RISP the Jays are hitting .233/.327/.325 with 32 GIDP; the other 13 AL teams are batting .269/.365/.412 averaging about 20 GIDP.

That’s not a slump—that’s a disease. A disease of collective ineptitude.

In the article I used the analogy of a well with poisonous water. Something that affected pretty much everyone. When something like that occurs it’s generally not a coincidence but there’s a root cause behind it. Yes, it could be that the Yankees sub par (by their standards) offensive season between 1996-2007, not to mention being below league average in hitting with RISP with Denbo as hitting coach is a coincidence, but what if it happens again?

The Jays’ offense underachieved in 2007 and most felt it would rebound a bit this year with Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay healthy coupled with Alex Rios and Aaron Hill’s continued progress. However it completely bottomed out this year--the same year that Denbo became hitting coach.

That’s too much of a coincidence.

Getting back to Wilner for a moment, he’s skeptical that a batting coach can have that much influence on a team but obviously I disagree. Two teams underachieve offensively, two teams below league average with RISP, both teams were the only ones to employ Denbo as a major league hitting coach … is there a pattern?

I’m guessing yes.

Best Regards

John  

I still believe!

I can't believe I still believe.

Almost two weeks ago, I wrote while preparing for a radio show in Tigers' territory "The thing is, despite being ten games back I really don't think the Tigers are dead yet."

Well, since then, the Tigers are 9-2 and have climbed to within five games of the AL Central lead. At one point this month they were 12 games below .500 and ripped off 12 wins in 15 games and are very much alive at 36-39.

Is it any wonder I wrote in May that "I'm pretty sure that they feel I'm a good luck charm since I first predicted that the Tigers were dangerous in spring, 2006. They had me on after their 0-7 start and the Tabbies went 14-8 and were 1.5 games out in the AL Central curled up in second place.”

The Tigers opened the season with a seven game losing streak and after that had a run where they lost 20 of 30 but they’re still very much alive.

The Jays are in trouble but it’s not only the Tigers resurgence that gives me hope.

I had the following dropped in my mailbox from a reliable source that wishes to remain anonymous:

Incidentally, here are the [percentage] of swings at pitches in the strike zone on hitter's ... League average is about 62.5% Hmmm....all-OBP, no power Overbay the #1 offender among the starters? Whodathunkit!

McDonald, John    23.8%
Mench, Kevin     40.3%
Eckstein, David    43.8%
Overbay, Lyle    51.1%
Inglett, Joe   54.6%
Zaun, Gregg    55.1%
Stewart, Shannon    55.4%
Wilkerson, Brad    59.2%
Wells, Vernon    59.4%
Rolen, Scott    59.8%
Stairs, Matt    60.1%
Scutaro, Marco    62.5%
Barajas, Rod    63.1%
Rios, Alex    66.2%
Hill, Aaron    68.8%

I have been stating all season that the Jays have been too passive at the plate and they’re appear to be looking to walk rather than hit--especially with runners in scoring position.

Well, the comments from some Jays’ players  after the firing of hitting coach Gary Denbo tells me that the pathetic offense had a root cause. A poor approach at the plate where players were trying to adjust to a philosophy that some were ill suited to execute would explain why they were so tentative.

When I had the privilege of interviewing Cito Gaston he discussed his philosophy of hitting which is endorsed by new batting coach Gene Tenace--that you work with what a player does well rather than worry about areas that they struggle (something that should generally be addressed in the minor leagues)--unless it’s a major obstacle to success.

This means that Jays hitters will be allowed to be themselves--to use their strengths. Further, there will be a focus on being more aggressive within the strike zone (see numbers above)--especially with runners in scoring position. Don’t worry those of you non-Blue Jays fans who never watch the team (except when they’re playing your club) who would prefer the Jays lose with a high OBP than win by swinging the bat to demonstrate the acumen of the front office--Tenace averaged 103 BB from 1973-1980. There will be walks offered up on the altar of “If you walk, you win--even if you lose.”

There may be problems with it from a sabermetric standpoint but OBP without SLG is like pizza without the sauce. Walks are nice in accumulating baserunners but sooner of later you’ve gotta to swing the bat with some authority or …

…or you become the 2008 version of the Toronto Blue Jays--tied for first in the AL in walks drawn--12th in runs scored.

Now there are men running things on the field that feel that swinging at fat pitches and pulling the ball is O.K. even if they never hear the melodious, orgasm inducing sound of “BALL FOUR!”

I can see the Jays returning the mean, I can see a league average offense (or even a touch better) in the near future. Shaun Marcum has strained ligaments and nothing more and can start throwing Saturday. I believe the Jays offense will not be an embarrassment all season long and the pitching will loosen up knowing that they won’t have to protect one-run leads for innings on end.

I can see the Jays having runs of 8-2, 12-3, 15-5 etc.

I can see the Jays getting back into this--there will be some pains along the way as the hitters readjust but I think they will be short lived.

The ultimate irony in all this is that Cito Gaston may again be in the right place at the right time. 

Best Regards

John

Coffee tea or cyanide?

Where to start?

On May 18 last year, I wrote an article on the Hardball Times entitled Autopsy of a Losing Skid that dealt with a miserable 5-15 run that was largely the result of injuries to the club. Well, the Jays may do one better with their current 4-14 run. They might manage to fall lower than the nadir of 2007 with a loss tonight.

Let's do a quick and dirty breakdown of the two skids:

2007: .244/.318/.410; 24 HR, 19 GiDP, 5.74 ERA

2008: .237/.324/.361; 12 HR, 20 GiDP, 4.43 ERA

Just a sidebar note, at this time last year the Jays hit into 55 double plays and are sitting at 86 this year.

What’s scary about the hitting is that in 2007 the Jays gave a lot of at bats to Royce Clayton, John McDonald and Jason Smith (as well as a struggling Adam Lind) whereas the ’08 club is missing only Aaron Hill.

EEP!

What makes this particularly galling is that many will tell you that walk off losses have minimal effect on a team’s mindset yet the Jays were 20-9 in May going into the last game of the month. They are 4-14 since and have gone from red hot to ice cold and yet the demarcation point was the back to back walk off losses to the Angels on May 31-June 1.

You can give me all the numbers you want on this phenomenon but the Jays have been a different team. Before the losses to Anaheim, Toronto was hitting .275/.340/.397 and had a 2.91 ERA--the hitting and slugging dropped almost 40 points and the ERA rose by a run-and-a-half with no physical reason as to why.

Adding to this, it was said that June would be a good month for the Jays due to a soft schedule.

If you haven’t watched the Jays (lucky you) then I strongly suggest you take whatever numbers you have (regarding the effects of walk off wins and losses) with a grain of salt since observation does count. Over the last 18 games, the Jays have scored four runs or less 12 times, and three or fewer 10 times, left 10 or more runners on base eight times (146 in all), hit into 20 double plays and struck out 116 times. They’re hitting .184 with RISP, slugging just .272 and if you take away the ninth inning of the third game of the series in Milwaukee (where they scored six runs on a two-run HR and a grand slam) those totals drop to .170 (BA) and .220 (SLG). Added into all this are six losses in the other team’s final at bat--if you don’t think that doesn’t make the pitching staff think “It doesn’t matter how well we pitch--it won’t be enough” then clearly you think that the game has been segregated with only cyborgs and automatons allowed in MLB with home sapiens being denied entry (call it the "epidermis line").

It’s called a snowball effect where one group’s poor performance becomes contagious.

A final note on this offensive ineptitude--the Jays had 24 PA with the bases loaded and batted .190/.292/.429 with 12 runs scored. That might not sound so bad but most of that damage occurred over just two innings: the seventh inning of the game against the Yankees on June 3 (two doubles, a walk, a sac fly for six runs) and the Joe Inglett’s grand slam in the ninth inning on June 19 in Milwaukee. This left the Jays with one hit and two walks in the 19 other bases-loaded situations during this streak giving them a .058/.158/.058 line and two runs scored.

EEP!

My feelings on the whole John Gibbons’ firing/Cito Gaston hiring can be read on Monday on MSN Canada. While I think it’s a cheap P.R. stunt to give J.P. Ricciardi (the guy who should‘ve gotten canned) a chance to extract his foot from his mouth after making a dunnass of himself I think it may pay some dividends. To wit:

If there’s a team that’s too patient at the plate it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. ESPN Insider’s “Inside Edge” (subscription) has charted that the Jays have swung at the fewest pitches in the AL both in total and in hitter’s counts (thanks to our own Jon Hale and owner of the web's most criminally underrated blog: “The Mockingbird“ for pointing this out). Most hitters view 2-0 and 3-1 counts or the first pitch of an at bat with multiple runners on base as opportunities to get a fat pitch to drive. Jays’ batters view them as opportunities to get the count to 3-0, walk, or hope the pitcher misses with the fastball so they can get ahead 1-0 in order to draw a walk with runners on base with 2-0 and 3-1 counts as stops along the way.    

Gaston believes in intelligent aggression at the plate--that when you get into hitter’s counts you look for a ball to turn on rather than trying to get one ball closer to a walk. It may well be just the tweak the Jays need at the plate.

Their approach has put them into position where they cannot get productive outs with a man on third and less than two out, even worse, Toronto is hitting .254./.309/.373 with a man on third and less than two out and the other 13 teams average .351/.442/.521.

Still, Ricciardi needs to upgrade the offense, the Jays have the worst combination of left fielders in the AL (.225/.306/.302 batting/on base/slugging average with two HR--second worst is Cleveland: .258/.327/.387 with six HR) plus the DH have the second-worst batting average (.214) and third worst slugging average (.370) in the league--positions managers count on to provide offense. Brad Wilkerson

Final thoughts: I won’t exhale regarding Roy Halladay until I see him dealing again so get better Roy! I’ve heard that Adam Lind has been promoted to the big club yet haven’t seen any official confirmation--but here’s hoping and of course best wishes to John Gibbons and thanks for giving us his very best--he deserves another shot, preferably a team with a competent GM. He exited with class and I do not blame him for the Jays’ woes. Of course, welcome back Cito--I was a vocal critic of his at the end of his tenure with the Jays but I am a huge fan of the man himself. He gets a clean slate and my best wishes as the Blue Birds’ new/old skipper.  

Best Regards

John 

As per usual, it is time to get ready for my weekly segment on ESPN 1450's Mike Gill Show. Today we toss around the following...   more »

After witnessing the Toronto Blue Jays lose their 12th game this year in the opposing team's final at bat I was looking for something to do. I went to Google maps to see if there was a clock tower near the Rogers Center so I could...anyway, a message appeared in my inbox from WMKT 1270 AM in Petoskey Michigan asking if I’d like to talk about the Tigers recent misfortunes.

Well, it was easier to get to Baseball Reference than it was to find a high-powered rifle so I closed Google maps and went to Sean Forman’s magnum opus to commiserate with my fellow hard luck fans rather than do the housecleaning that Paul Godfrey and/or J.P. Ricciardi are reluctant to do.

Mmmmm …  magnum (shakes head).

Um, back to reality--which sucks by the way. I guess I’ll put some Tigers information together while sulking about the Blue Jays. The biggest problem the Tigers have is the pitching, they have the second worst starting staff in the AL (5.00 ERA) and the third worst bullpen (4.33 ERA).

The last week or so has been quite busy for the Tabbies: they optioned Dontrelle Willis to Single-A Lakeland, reinstated Clay Rapada from the 15-day disabled list. They had to place Jeremy Bonderman on the 15-day disabled list due to a blood clot of the auxiliary vein and is probably done for the year. Clete Thomas is on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 4, with a sprained right ankle; Aquilino Lopez is on the bereavement list and they‘ve purchased the contract of INF Michael Hollimon from Triple-A Toledo and recalled OF Brent Clevlen from Triple-A Toledo. Other recent moves include putting Ramon Santiago on the 15-day disabled list with a separated left shoulder, reinstating Denny Bautista from the disabled list and purchasing the contract of LHP Casey Fossum from Triple-A Toledo.

It was also announced that Brandon Inge would share catching duties with Pudge Rodriguez.

There are a few bright spots for the Tigers--despite his 1-3 record over his last five starts, Justin Verlander has an ERA of 3.00 in 33 IP. Kenny Rogers has put together three solid starts pitching seven innings in each with a 1.29 ERA. Other than the first start of the season, Nate Robertson has pitched into the sixth inning in the rest of his outings and after cooling a bit after a hot start Armando Galarraga has won his last two starts giving up four earned runs in 14 IP.

The thing is, the pitching hasn’t been that bad of late. Over the last 19 games the staff has a deceptive 4.29 ERA that is the result of three bad games. On May 23 they gave up nine runs to the Twins, Back on the fourth Oakland dinged them for 10 and of course there was the Willis game where they coughed up eight. In the other 16 games Detroit pitchers have a very decent 3.54 ERA. 

I discussed Willis yesterday on the Mike Gill Show and said the following:

Q. Dontrelle Willis was sent to Class A, can he ever regain his form or did the Marlins know he was shot when they traded him.

I don’t think any team views a 26-year old lefty with stuff as shot unless he’s carrying his pitching arm around in a paper bag. This is the Marlins--he was dealt for monetary reasons. Most other teams would continue to try to get him straightened out.

I think Willis needs to reinvent himself as a pitcher. He may simply not have the flexibility to throw the way he did years ago. The talent is there, the velocity is there, and he’s just 26 years old--maybe it’s time to rework his mechanics from the ground up as the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay in 2000-2001. Halladay was 23-24 years old when this occurred so there’s plenty of time for the D-Train to get himself back on track.

A lefty with his stuff at that age is too valuable to give up on. The Tigers and Willis have absolutely nothing to lose at this point. Heck, Dave Dombrowski should put in a call to Milwaukee and talk to Gord Ash about how they went about getting Halladay back on track.

Obviously losing Bonderman hurts big time as well as Ramon Santiago from the bench. Getting Bautista and Rapada back into the mix in the bullpen should help a bit as well. The thing is, despite being ten games back I really don’t think the Tigers are dead yet. The White Sox are playing a bit over their head and will fall back to earth. The Tribe should heat up at some point to give the pitching some help and of course the Tigers will not be this inconsistent all year. Given their runs scored, runs allowed they should be just 30-34 so they have simply had some bad luck thus far. They’re 4-10 in one-run games for example and have been dinged by four walk-off losses. The Tigers are 4-14 when tied in the 7-9 innings and 0-3 in extras.

The Tigers are fourth in AL in runs scored (second in Central), sixth in OBP (second in Central), fifth in slugging (second in Central) and seventh in HR (second in Central). If the pitching continues to come around then there’s some hope.

Getting back to the Jays to wrap up--the Jays haven’t had a walk-off win yet this year and since May 31, they’ve lost five games in the opposing team’s final at bat. I detailed some of the carnage here at THT. What I am about to say is not logical--it is nonsensical. However since the Jays play in 2008 is neither logical or makes any sense it may work.

Blue Jays fans will soon be giving up on the season. Twelve losses--more than a third--have come in the other team’s final at bat. They’re 0-4 at home in extra innings and in those four extra-inning losses at home, 11 times they had man at third, fewer than two out and were left stranded. They’re 4-for-25 in hitting with RISP and less than two out in extra innings with zero extra base hits and three GIDP. They have had many opportunities to win games without needing a hit--just a deep fly ball or slow rolling ground ball would score the winning run and failed.

This is a team that cannot even make a productive out in a key situation for God’s sakes.

If a major addition isn’t made then somebody’s head needs to roll--now. Either Paul Godfrey or J.P. Ricciardi needs to drop the axe on a sacrificial lamb. The fans need to know that the organization is aware that there is an expectation that this team has a pattern of choking and that they’re addressing the situation. Talk is cheap, reassuring words tell us that they have confidence in a team that invents new ways of losing winnable ballgames on a nightly basis; that they’re O.K. with the knowledge that the other team doesn’t consider the Blue Jays loading the bases with none out to be a jam that the pitcher needs to work out of since there are nine guys on the other side of the field willing and able to help him out.

The dynamic needs to change. Right now, the articles about how Barry Bonds would poison the clubhouse atmosphere seem laughable because the clubhouse atmosphere is one of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Jays have had some brilliant starting pitchers who rack up one brilliant performance after another only to see them go for naught by players whose genitalia invert in big situations after dampening the soil in the batter’s box.

The Jays’ regular starting five have an ERA of 3.55 in a league where 4.35 is average. The bullpen has the third best ERA in the AL (3.17) but are 4-14 because they have no margin for error due to the utter incompetence of the lineup’s situational hitting. A major change has to be made simply for the sake of change--anything that breaks up the status quo because this is a team that is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy because if it’s late and tied they will lose--there are no walk-off wins here. If they’re behind after eight innings the Jays are 0-25, if it’s tied in the ninth they’re 4-7, if it goes past the 11th may as well run up the white flag.

I’m a diehard fan of the Toronto Blue Jays since 1977--I have never been so close to giving up on a team this early in the season.

Best Regards

John

As per usual, it is time to get ready for my weekly segment on ESPN 1450's Mike Gill Show. Today we toss around the following...

Q. Dontrelle Willis was sent to Class A, can he ever regain his form or did the Marlins know he was shot when they traded him.

I don’t think any team views a 26-year old lefty with stuff as shot unless he’s carrying his pitching arm around in a paper bag. This is the Marlins--he was dealt for monetary reasons. Most other teams would continue to try to get him straightened out.

I think Willis needs to reinvent himself as a pitcher. He may simply not have the flexibility to throw the way he did years ago. The talent is there, the velocity is there, and again, he’s just 26 years old--maybe it’s time to rework his mechanics from the ground up as the Blue Jays did with Roy Halladay in 2000-2001. Halladay was 23-24 years old when this occurred so there’s plenty of time for the D-Train to get himself back on track.

A lefty with his stuff at that age is too valuable to give up on. The Tigers and Willis have absolutely nothing to lose at this point. Heck, Dave Dombrowski should put in a call to Milwaukee and talk to Gord Ash about how they went about getting Halladay back into working order.  

Q. Tom Glavine is hurt now, should he hang them up?

I’d hold off until the MRI results are in--his command has been terrible of late and Glavine stated that his elbow has been bothering him for awhile so the events may be connected. If there’s little structural damage and rest and rehab fix the problem and he returns to throwing strikes he could still be useful to the Braves. Barring a top-shelf season, I’m guessing this is his farewell tour and there’s no point cutting it short unless he needs major surgery.

Q. Is there a team that hasn’t been playing the way many thought they would set to make a run to get back in a playoff race?

Well, I can’t see the Mets or Yankees remaining where they are. However, it will come down to whether Omar Minaya and Brian Cashman decide to play the cards they’re dealt or try to upgrade. The Yankees need another starting pitcher and to shore up the bullpen whereas with Mets need a starter as well and if Carlos Delgado is rounding into form (.317/.380/.571 over the last 18 games) all the only position they need to address in left field.

Both clubs have too much talent to punt on the season but cannot rely on the status quo to get it done. 

Q. Is there a team that is set to run away with a division yet or are they all still up for grabs?

The only team really in any kind of position to run away and hide at this point are the White Sox. They’ve won 18 of 25 with a seven and an eight game winning streak. They have outstanding pitching but their offense is being powered by Joe Crede and Carlos Quentin having atypical years. Now Quentin could just be coming into his own but this is way above anything Crede has done before.

I can’t see both Cleveland and Detroit being this dormant all year either. Bottom  line, I don’t think anybody will run away with anything this year.  

Q. John Brattain’s divinely inspired weekly power rankings

4. Boston Red Sox
3. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Philadelphia Phillies
T1. Chicago White Sox/Chicago Cubs

Best Regards

John