Of bruised deceased equines, Barry Bonds, labor law and Godwin's law and thee.   more »

The body is not yet cold. Now what do I do?

A week ago I wrote "The Toronto Blue Jays are fatally flawed. I think it may be time to run up the white flag." Toronto was 14 games out and was finishing up what would be a miserable 2-4 west coast trip. Since then, the Jays swept the Orioles and took two of three from the Yankees while the Rays have lost seven straight.

Now the Blue Jays are 8.5 back at the break.

A.J. Burnett was masterful today on three days rest: 8.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER 1 BB 8 K on less than 100 pitches--it was the sort of completely unexpected effort that gives fans hope that better days are ahead; all the more so since Roy Halladay was even better on Friday (9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER 0 BB 8 K ).

Yes, despite taking two of three from the Yankees the Jays did all their scoring in the first two innings over the weekend with four runs in the first inning on Saturday and four in the second frame today before reverting to their usual getting men into scoring position and leaving them there the rest of the way.

Still, it’s a better outcome than I thought would happen this weekend. I figured after Halladay, since Gaston’s initial plan of having Jesse Litsch go Saturday and lefty reliever Brian Tallet on Sunday (in what would be a Charlie Wholestaff game) would mean two losses. After all, Litsch hasn’t been pitching well of late and the Bronx Bombers always hit him hard and the Wholestaff game versus Andy Pettitte looked to be a foregone conclusion.

I had guessed that Cito figured with Litsch starting, Saturday would be the game where the bullpen would be needed for a lot of innings and opted to see what Burnett could do on three days rest. Well, Litsch delivered as expected and couldn’t hold a three-run cushion for 30 pitches (although he did throw the inning ending pitch that was booted by Marcos Scutaro) and A.J. did the unexpected and probably made his best start of 2008.

The Jays are 12-9 under Gaston and are so despite the struggles of Litsch (1-5, 5.56 ERA over his last eight starts), Dustin McGowan (1-3, 5.81 ERA over his final five starts before being shelved) and Burnett (4-3, 6.91 ERA over his previous seven starts prior to today), not having Shaun Marcum available, Vernon Wells getting hurt recently, Alex Rios away for the series (to be with his wife during delivery), Scott Rolen batting .111/.238/.139 in July (before today), Gregg Zaun hitting .087/.250/.087 over the previous nine games, Rod Barajas doing no better (.167/.167/.333) over his last nine, Matt Stairs batting .205/.333/.325 since mid May and of course not having Aaron Hill.

Still, the Jays have gotten it done.

Amazing.

It’s still a longshot to think the Jays will be in it come September but Adam Lind is hitting well since his recall (.350/.369/.633), Alex Rios is .338/.370/.506 since Cito took over the Jays, Joe Inglett .339/.383/.482 likewise, have hit into just nine double plays over their last 15 games and there’s a player on the market (or soon to be) who hit .260/.363/.512 on the road and kills lefties .344/.423/.623 this year. He's hitting .350/.435/.500 in Toronto this year and is a career .316/.397/.565 hitter at the Dome and he‘d cost the pro-rated minimum.

I speak of course of Richie Sexson.

He’s not the saviour to be sure but he’d be a very useful bat and a source of pop--especially against lefties of whom the Jays are batting just .244/.323/.335 this year.

Considering he costs chump change and a roster spot (such as Kevin Mench or Brad Wilkerson’s cadaverric .182/.325/.212 the last month) it strikes me as a no-brainer--he’d be the team leader in home runs right from the get-go.

At the very least, the post All Star break will quickly settle whether the Jays will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline--they cannot ask for a better schedule to get back into things: they have four against the Orioles, three against the Mariners and six against the Rays. If they go 9-4 with at least four wins against the Rays (preferably five) and I think they have a half-decent shot. In the “dare to dream” department--two sweeps could conceivably have them within three games of the Rays with the Red Sox in their sights as well.

I said it was a dream.

One week ago I was ready to officially run up the white flag--well, the Jays have been given an extension until the end of July before I start looking to 2009 in earnest.

Best Regards

John

P.S.

Free Wayne McMahon!!

Follow the links and read up to the saga of a Rogers Centre institution. Thanks to the good folks at Drunk Jays Fans word is getting out about the firing of a legendary suds-salesman. If you’re at the Dome raise a cheer and show your support in getting Wayne his job back.

All you have to yell is: ICE. COLD. BEEEEEEEERRR!!!

The Toronto Blue Jays are fatally flawed. I think it may be time to run up the white flag. Here's the thing, it's pretty common knowledge that the offense struggles in big moments. We documented yesterday how the 2008 Blue Jays' hitters struggle once a runner reaches third base:

Team        BA  OBP  SLG  2B 3B  HR  BB
Royals    .311/.384/.422  15  0   5  32
Blue Jays .206/.328/.304  15  0   6  61
Angels    .295/.400/.421  18  1   8  50
Mariners  .272/.369/.356  19  0   4  42

Just for fun, earlier this week on The Hardball Times I charted Dave Winfield’s totals with (at least) runners on third in 1992:

Sit.         BA    OBP   SLG
--3         .448  .541  .828
1-3         .500  .593  .955
-23         .400  .444  .933
123         .455  .462 1.000
3, lt 2 out .475  .538  .775
 3 2 out    .432  .512 1.054   

(sigh)

But I digress.

I went through the box scores to see how many times the Jays hit below the “Mendoza Line” with RISP this year and in 87 games, they hit less than .200 in 39 of them including 13 0-fers. They are 12-21 in one run games, 18-28 in two run games and at home, they are 0-5 in extra innings. Speaking of which--in 14 extra innings at the Rogers Centre, the Jays are batting .278. However, with RISP in drops to .105 and when they’ve had RISP and less than two out they’re hitting .111 and have stranded 21 base runners.

It has been too long to be considered a fluke and even if it is and they rebound, the team has yet another fatal flaw in the clutch--relief pitching. In my weekly MSN Canada column I discussed how, despite a solid ERA, the Jays’ bullpen loses it when things get tough.

For example, here is the bullpen’s line at home in extra innings:

W-L   ERA  IP  ER   H  BB   K  WHIP
0-5  7.07  14  11  15  15  14  2.14 

So the hitters haven’t been the only problem in extras. Now before you go all sample size on me, rest assured, this is only the tip of the iceberg and there’s a lot more data to come.

The game has evolved in that the starting pitcher’s role has simply become to keep his team in the game through at least six innings. In this regard, the Jays’ starting staff has held up its end of the bargain. It’s up to the bats and the bullpen to bring the game home. For the most part, the relievers’ job begins in the 7-8th innings. Since we’re talking about clutch ability among the bullpen, let’s see how the Jays’ staff stacks up in tie games in the late innings--when they’re needed most:

Team        W-L  ERA   T7   T8   T9
Blue Jays  4-17 3.12  5-7  4-7  4-11

The 3.12 ERA, as I documented on MSN, hasn’t been really useful. How do they stack up against the rest of the AL?

Team       W-L   ERA   T7   T8   T9
White Sox 15-9  2.71  7-8 10-6  6-4
Blue Jays  4-17 3.12  5-7  4-7  4-11
Rays      16-8  3.16 10-4  9-2  6-4
Orioles   15-14 3.23  6-9  6-7  3-6
Athletics 13-9  3.38  4-6  2-5  6-3
Twins     16-10 3.45  6-4  7-4  3-4
Yankees   12-11 3.53  5-6  5-6  3-5
Mariners  10-13 3.74  3-7  4-7  6-1
Royals     9-11 3.89  5-4  4-2  2-4
Angels     8-11 4.02  9-3  7-5  4-5
Red Sox   13-15 4.08  6-5  4-5  4-2
Tigers    14-13 4.35  4-7  6-4  4-5
Rangers   18-18 5.03  7-6  5-4  6-4
Indians    8-16 5.03  4-9  3-12 2-8

Take out the ERA component and the team most resembling the Blue Jays are the Indians who definitely have the worst bullpen in MLB.

Team        W-L    T7   T8   T9
Blue Jays  4-17   5-7  4-7  4-11
Indians    8-16   4-9  3-12 2-8

Is this another statistical fluke, a simple random variation or an anomaly? If it is--then that’s two flukes working against the Jays. What are the odds that a team with an upper-echelon bullpen (insofar as ERA goes) and a slightly worse than league average OPS+ (the Angels have a far worse OPS+) can so vastly underachieve in not just one, but two major clutch categories?

Maybe it’s not an anomaly at all and simply a poorly constructed team that is far worse than the sum of its parts. If you were too look at the players on an individual basis it would be easy to conclude that’s it is a competitive club. However, as a collective unit they’re simply not up to the task. Here is a team that the raw numbers informs us is two BB out of second place in the AL in walks drawn, second in relief ERA and fifth in starter’s ERA (3.75) and not far from second place in the league (Angels: 3.62 ERA) but has the 11th best record in a 14 team league.

The Jays have won 23 of their 41 games by three or more runs, but when the game gets close the Jays generally come up short: 12-21 in one-run games, 18-28 in two run (or less) games, 3-7 in extra innings (0-5 at the Rogers Centre).  

Again, the starting pitching has done its job but they’re rarely around in the crucial late innings. Once the starters are gone and the clutch situations that often decide games arise, the Jays’ roster shows its true colours. Yes, some of it is certainly on the players but it’s up to the organization to create an environment where the players can succeed. Clearly there is an expectation of failure that has crept into the club that manifests itself time and again. You won’t find it in the numbers (save the standings) but you’ll see it on the field.

That falls to the club’s architect--J.P. Ricciardi.

Best Regards

John

The Jays are giving the AL a primer on how to suck.

The Jays have had 415 PA with (at least) a man on third base; they're hitting .206/.328/.304. They have struck out as many times as they have hit (69 H/69 K...symbolic--n'est-ce pas?); they have walked almost as often as they have hit (61 BB). In 415 PA they have just 21 extra base hits with a man on third.

The Mariners have had 348 PA with (at least) a man on third and are batting .272/.369/.356 and despite almost 70 fewer PA they have six more hit with two more for extra bases.

The Royals have had 319 PA with (at least) a man on third and are hitting .311/.384/.422 with 20 extra base hits despite almost 100 fewer PA.

The Angels, like the Mariners, have had 348 PA with (at least) a man on third and are batting .295/.400/.421 with 27 extra base hits (8 HR).

These are the four lowest scoring teams in the AL (11. Royals, 12. Blue Jays, 13. Angels, 14. Mariners)--even among the lightweights of the AL the Jays offense in clutch situations is abysmal.

Team        BA  OBP  SLG  2B 3B  HR  BB
Royals    .311/.384/.422  15  0   5  32
Blue Jays .206/.328/.304  15  0   6  61
Angels    .295/.400/.421  18  1   8  50
Mariners  .272/.369/.356  19  0   4  42

David Eckstein is on the trading block and with men on third he’s hitting .308/.379/.384--absent the X-Factor, the team is batting .197/.324/.298 in that situation. Dear God, if they deal Eckstein we may see a team intentionally load the bases in the ninth inning with nobody out and a one-run lead to better their chances of closing out the game. 

Don’t you wish you could make them go stand in the corner or something? I think Paul Godfrey might be missing out on a classic marketing opportunity--"This Blue Jays’ man on third situation is brought to you by Depends. For those times when you know you’re about to wet yourself in public."

"If I hit like that--I’d wear a dress."--Mickey Mantle

Well, at least J.P. Ricciardi is giving Jays’ fans a taste of what being a Leafs fan feels like.

Best Regards

John

I am convinced that Bud Selig ran the Montreal Expos better than J.P. Ricciardi is running the Blue Jays. Yup...after a burst of optimistic posts, cruel reality insists on intruding again.

Again, the Jays lost 2-of-3 to the Mariners; the Jays have scored two or fewer runs in four of their last six and are batting .181 with runners in scoring position over the last eight games. In six games against Seattle, the Jays have held them to an average of less than three runs per game and lost four times.

The Jays bats are reverting to form and the Jays have to look to a general manager who thinks the offense is sufficient to compete. I’m sure he adds under his breath “for last place.” I guess he wanted the Red Sox GM job and thought he could serve Boston’s interests best by staying in Toronto.  

Once again, I am convinced that Bud Selig ran the Montreal Expos better than J.P. Ricciardi is running the Blue Jays.  

The Jays are closing in on the century mark in hitting into double plays and have a ten twin-killing cushion over the Boston Red Sox--the number two team in MLB in make-an-out, take-a-friend philosophy. I’m surprised it was Ed Wade that was thrown to the ground--I’m sure among most of the pitching staff, it’s their number two fantasy (number one involving males).  

As of this writing whining, the Jays are eighth in the AL or worse (and below league average) in six lineup spots: first and second base, all three outfield spots and DH. Obviously, little can be done as Aaron Hill is on the DL, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios ain’t going anywhere and Adam Lind will address the problem in left (.333/.367/.704; 3 HR 10 RBI since his call-up … 27 AB).

What about DH?

Look, I love Matt Stairs as much as the next guy however he hits righties .281/.361/.448 which is just 50 OPS points above league average--and that’s for his best platoon split and is batting just .214/.322/.320 overall since mid-May. He’s again making good contact and getting on base but has just six extra base hits since the beginning of June.

Bottom line--the Jays have an opening for a big bat.

I’m not holding my breath that J.P. Ricciardi will do much about it--perhaps a little sinus excavation, mixed with some navel gazing, digitally-aided gluteal itch-relief while mulling whether to go to a podiatrist or a orthodontist to alleviate the embarrassment of his next public statement.    

Perhaps he’ll be thinking about a career change--certainly Ringling Bros can find use for a contortionist act where the performer manages to stick his foot in his mouth while suffering from inverse cranial-rectal syndrome.

(sigh)

After all, most teams need southpaw relievers and the Jays have more lefties than the NDP (a Canadian socialist party for you Yanks) and J.P. cannot parlay that into … anything?

I’m trying really hard not to give up on this season; the Phillies bats are booming again (ah the sound of maple hitting hide with authority--remember when we used to hear that up here?) and I wonder if I should make that my main focus and watch Jays games solely to see if Shaun Marcum and Roy Halladay can contend for the Cy Young, or watch Adam Lind go from prospect to major league slugger or even see if Brandon League can harness his electric arm and become Duane Ward redux. However, I would measure wins and losses by their progress rather than the numbers on the score board and prayerfully count down to what I hope is the end of J.P. Ricciardi’s reign of error and look forward to the day when he has to listen to my order because dammit--I want my fries supersized!

I’m so close to bailing and I know I’m not the only one. I’m sure the front office is worried about ticket sales in the second half and if I might offer a suggestion--how about winning some ballgames? You know, make a few calls, pick up a big bat, clear the outfield wall a few times with runners on board and watch the profits roll in!

If J.P. cannot do that then find someone who can--I vote for the latter idea. He’s had seven years and he’s the weakest link.

Oh … and could you supersize my Coke while you’re at it? Thanks much big guy--nice to see you finally found something you’re good at.

Hey! These fries are limp!

Why am I not surprised?

Best Regards

John

Many bemoan the new wave of stats espoused by Bill James, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times etc. However, the light ...   more »

Well, the Jays made that one unnecessarily tense. A five run lead in the eighth became a one run lead. A four run lead in the ninth became two men on, full count on Ruben Gotay with Chipper Jones (.394/.485/.630; 16 HR) on deck and a red-hot Mark Teixeira (also with 16 HR plus a double, two HR, 5 RBI and 3 BB thus far in the series) in the hole.

Sheesh.

Ah well … all’s well that ends well but I came up with new cuss words with Brian Tallet’s generosity (4 ER in the eighth) making it look like another late inning heartbreak.

A lot has been made about the Jays newfound success hitting being accomplished against mediocre pitching. In two of their last three games they’ve roughed up Edinson Volquez (4.1 IP 7 R 5 ER) and Tim Hudson (5 IP 6 ER) which is certainly cause for optimism in Toronto.

After consecutive David Purcey debacles resulting in 7.1 IP 9 ER and 11 BB over two starts it was nice to see a solid spot start with one of the fab five unavailable. I feel a little better about Shaun Marcum being out until after the All Star break with John Parrish’s solid 6 IP 1 ER 2 BB 4 K of work. If he logs another decent turn or two perhaps a spot on the roster can be made available and maybe seeing what Jason Frasor or Brian Tallet could fetch in a trade.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s done some solid work for the Jays but Tallet reminds me of a right handed version of Frasor--a good arm and ulcer-inducing results even when they succeed. While B.J. Ryan is good for getting the ol’ stomach acids percolating he generally comes through. Tom Henke was like that at times--he’d make ninth innings interesting before finally putting the game away.

Over the last six games, which included a 4-0 three hit loss Friday night, Toronto is batting .357/.444/.595 and .364 with runners in scoring position. Obviously that won’t stay up there but it provides reasons for hope at any rate. Yes, the newfound Jays aggressiveness will be noted by advanced scouts but let’s give Cito Gaston a little credit. He knows this will happen and will have the batters prepared to make adjustments again

The Jays have a deep hole from which they have to extricate themselves and 80 games to do it in. The Jays need to go 50-30 to finish 89-73 which, while difficult I do not think is unattainable if the pitching holds up. The thing is, what the Jays need is something they have already enjoyed this year--a major hot streak. The Twins have reeled off 10 in-a-row and 13-of-15, the Tigers have won 15-of-19 and Toronto had a 14-4 run in May. There’s no reason with improved hitting that the Jays cannot get hot again. If they do that they’re right back in the wild card hunt.

They’re taking the right approach--just trying to win series one at a time. Winning 2-of-3 is a .667 winning percentage and they need to play .625 ball in the second half to reach 89 wins. They have the right man at the helm in keeping an even keel, there is enough talent in the lineup for a league average or better offense--even with RISP and more than enough pitching if it remains healthy.

I will say this however, they cannot afford another cold streak like they just came off of and Toronto already has a seven and six game losing streak. One more losing streak of that nature and it becomes time to look towards 2009. The 2006 Cardinals had a seven and an eight game losing streak and made the post season in a weak division--the Jays are already trying to buck recent history. Rarely does a pair of losing streaks that length happen to a team that reached the post season.

Finally…

This week on THT I’ve discussed some concerns I have about sabermetrics in the articles I was born a ramblin’ man and A conversation with Bill Baer. Anyway, on Ball-Hype a poster named Bob R. made an excellent point on the science of sabermetrics that I thought I’d mention here: “Perhaps a minor point in the discussion you are having, but I think there is an error in identifying sabermetrics as science. More accurate would be to call it social science. Like economics or sociology et al, it may use a scientific method and rely on statistics, clinical research, model building and the like, but it always remains subject to the vagaries of human behaviour.

That is in no way meant to demean sabermetrics. Polling, for example, has become very reliable since "Dewey Defeats Truman", but it is still less certain than physics or chemistry. If we keep that distinction in mind, we may remain more modest in our assertions and less prone to dogmatism in our pronouncements.”       

Wise words indeed and something for all of us to keep in mind.

Best Regards

John

How long can the Halos keep this up?

They're 23-10 over their last 33 games despite batting .252/.315/.373--they have played 20 games where the difference in score has been two runs or less and won 17 of those games. In 2008, they have a team OPS+ of just 91 and an ERA+ of 107. The Halos bullpen has an ERA of 4.10--10th best in the AL. They only strong unit is the starting pitching where they are tied with the White Sox for second in the loop at 3.75.

To give you an idea of how anomalous the Angels’ year is, check this out:

Team  Pytha W-L  OPS+  ERA+  ERA (SP)  ERA (RP)   W-L
Jays    42-36     97   114    3.83       2.95    37-41
Angels  41-27     91   107    3.75       4.10    48-30 

That’s amazing.

Granted, over their last 33 games they have a staff ERA of 3.15 and are averaging a smidge over four runs per game. Still, that’s a staggering tribute to their consistency as regards run distribution. They also had 24 games prior to May 18 decided by two runs or less and went 14-10. Of their 78 games played, 44 have been decided by two runs or less and the LAA of A are 31-13 … a .705 winning percentage and that with a below league average bullpen no less!

The Jays, with one of the best relief corps in the league and a better overall offense (2.95 ERA) have played 43 games decided by two runs or less and are 17-26 (a .395 winning percentage). Interestingly, the Jays’ bullpen has an AL worst winning percentage (.211) with a 4-15 mark.

Ouch.

Other oddities include the Angels 15 comeback wins despite an anemic lineup (the Jays have 10); the Angels have blown 14 leads but the Jays’ superior bullpen and equally pathetic offense have blown 16 leads. The Halos are 5-3 in walk off games, the Jays 0-6.

To state the obvious--the Angels have been far more effective hitting with runners in scoring position. Is that the only reason for the discrepancy?

If any Angels’ fans wish to weigh in on whether it’s something in the water or what--be my guest. The games I’ve watched them play (against Toronto) are too painful to contemplate.

Regardless, both the Jays and Halos appear to be major aberrations. It will bear watching to see how the second half (yes, we’re almost there) will shake out with both clubs--one has been severely overachieving (I think--feel free to set me straight LAA of A fans), one badly underachieving.

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts--I think that Gary Denbo was the problem with the Jays’ hitters. No, I don’t expect the Jays to crank out 22 hits a night but it’s almost like the power switch has been turned on insofar as the offense goes. I do know the Gaston stresses building on what hitters do well rather than impose a certain one-size-fits-all philosophy as regards hitting.

I do think if the offense does become more consistent in putting up runs that it will improve the pitching staff since they won’t feel like they’re walking a tightrope every night. Just look at how well A.J. Burnett pitched with a lot of runs to work with--it’s just one start but these things have to start somewhere.

Finally, as regards my THT column today I would like to re-iterate that I am not anti-stats, or anti-sabermetrics although some did get that impression. What I am saying is that a lot happens in the game that defies statistical explanation. Baseball is unmatched as a game of variables and to capture it all statistically is like trying to build a sandcastle in the surf--it’s too unstable to build anything on with absolute certainty.

The only way knowledge can increase is by an admission of ignorance and limitation however there is a segment of the sabermetric community that feel they are the way, the truth and the life and nobody understands baseball except through them. These are the ones that will cause knowledge to stagnate. Once these ones can predict league standings and won-loss records with absolute certainty on an annual basis then they can state that they are the final authority on the sport. Until then, the best we can do is making educated guesses and we should treat them as just that. Each game is unique and will have its own particular fingerprint and require its own particular set of decisions.

Yes, there are some solid guidelines that can be referenced but these are not the last word on the subject. A valuable data point? Absolutely. However, as long as human beings are on the field of play the only correct answer is the one that wins a particular game. It may not be the correct answer yesterday or tomorrow but one game is already forever in the guide and the other is yet to be played and whatever decision wins that game will be the correct one.

Best Regards

John