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Tuesday, November 27

TPoSGD: November 27, 2007 - "Rock" solid doing the Tango...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Tue 27 Nov 2007 11:01 AM EST
Awesome.
I just received an e-mail from a gentleman best known as “Tango Tiger.” He wanted to let me know that he is starting a Tim Raines for the Hall of Fame site. He gave me a preview of it and it is going to be terrific. Check it out for yourself but don't bother clicking any of the links on the left--they're not live yet.
Perfect timing too.
I am currently working on an MSN Canada column dealing with Raines’ candidacy. The biggest problem with him is perception. Bill James once wrote that as time went on players would become known more by their stats than anything. There is nothing wrong with his numbers but the current offensive environment makes his totals look less than impressive.
Raines also suffers from a lack of milestones; he didn’t get 3000 hits, or 900 stolen bases, or 1500 walks etc. He was the prototypical underrated player; he did a lot of things very well but not one thing extremely well. He is overshadowed by players in most traditional categories--even stolen bases. Although he is fourth all-time in modern major league history in that department, he never topped 100 thefts in a season constantly being overshadowed by Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman’s 100+ SB years.
Often it is said that if you have to make a Hall of Fame case for a player, he probably doesn’t belong since HOF talent is relatively easy to spot. Alex Rodriguez is a Hall of Famer while Troy Glaus probably is not. Like most guidelines, there are exceptions. After time passes and memories fade with players’ final seasons hanging on being the freshest of them, people forget how incredible certain players actually were--especially if they played in smaller media markets. In recent years we have seen articles about whether Frank Thomas, Craig Biggio, Roberto Alomar etc. are Hall-worthy.
How soon they forget.
In such cases, you’re not so much making a case as much as you are reminding people just how special they were back in the day. This is the situation with Tim Raines; I watched “Rock’s” career in its entirety and there was never any doubt about what I was witnessing. Just to give you a small preview of coming columns at MSN and the Hardball Times, consider the following: While it seems odd now, there was a time when Raines was compared to Rickey Henderson. It may seem silly now when you look at Rickey’s 3055 hits, 2295 runs scored, 2190 BB, 1406 stolen bases or for that matter, 297 HR and 1115 RBI--a fine career for a three-hole hitter yet alone a leadoff batter. However back in the 1980’s when both of them were still young pups in their 20’s it wasn’t so absurd. From 1983-89: Player BA OBP SLG Runs SB SB% Rickey .290 .401 .449 803 552 84.6 Raines .308 .398 .456 710 429 87.1
Obviously, Henderson is, and will always be the hallmark against which all other leadoff men will be measured against. Regardless, it’s interesting to note that while Henderson was the more prolific base stealer, Raines was the better overall hitter and the difference widens a bit more when you compare their totals against their respective league averages.
Henderson played over three more full seasons worth of games than Raines and had “Rock” managed to play that long, he may have gotten to 3000 hits himself as well as 200+ HR and possibly 1700 runs scored. As it is… Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ Rickey .279 .401 .419 127 Raines .294 .385 .425 123
No, I’m not saying that Raines is in Rickey’s league. What I am implying is that Raines is a lot better than most people remember. For example, Lou Brock--the modern NL stolen base king and member of the 3000-hit club is well qualified for the Hall of Fame, but consider: Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ SB SB% PA TOB* Brock .293 .343 .410 109 938 75 11235 3833 Raines .294 .385 .425 123 808 84 10359 3977
*Times On Base
Despite almost 1000 fewer plate appearances, "Rock" reached base almost 150 times more. Once he got there he stole bases far more efficiently. That puts Raines somewhere between Lou Brock and Rickey Henderson as far as a discussion of the greatest leadoff men of all time--easily Hall of Fame territory.
So bookmark Tango’s site (or use the link provided at the top of the list) and I’ll keep you posted on when other Raines’ columns come out from yours truly and Mr. Tango.
Best Regards
John
Friday, November 23

TPoSGD: November 23, 2007 - Baseball's fiscal succubi...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Fri 23 Nov 2007 11:08 AM EST
Guess what? Marlins may play in Puerto Rico in '08
Where have I seen this before? Yup, MLB’s Ren and Stimpy are at it again--brand new crap, same old sphincter(s). Jeffrey Loria and David “can’t see the lawn for the blades of grass” Samson are taking their second club to Puerto Rico (what is it about Loria and RICO anyway?) as a ploy to get into the pants of the politicos in South Florida. Get those naughty (and frankly disturbing) thoughts out of your head--I was talking about reaching for the wallet and not the change purse.
At any rate, here is the Coles Notes version of recent events. In 2004, there was a $30 million funding gap between the team and the region’s combined funding and the proposed cost of a new stadium for the Marlins. By 2006, the difference had risen to $60 million or as I had written last August the cost of signing Kevin Millwood or Paul Konerko for five years service.
Come earlier this month after it was known college football was leaving the historic Orange Bowl, the $50 million tabbed to renovate the stadium was no longer needed. $50 million worth of free money is available to close the gap. It is sooooooo close--can’t you just taste it?
As usual, the only thing tasted was the back of MLB’s hand. Bob Dupuy was so full of beans over the revelation he allowed them to digest somewhat so he could release a cheek-vibrating bit of synaptic flatulence to South Florida:
"The last thing you want to do is build a brand-new ballpark down there and have the team fail. Everybody recognizes that. The level of contribution the team makes has to be commensurate with what they believe they're going to be able to generate from a new ballpark and be viable."
A few of weeks after allowing the stench of this proclamation to dissipate it was announced that the Marlins were taking their bats and balls to Puerto Rico.
If a team can’t survive in the Miami market, it is not because its size (around top 12-15 of MLB marketplaces), it’s not because of the stadium, or the product (two World Series champions), or the weather. It is because it has dealt with some of the most inept, corrupt, purulent, incompetent obnoxious management this side of Enron.
They are so far into overdraft in their goodwill account in South Florida it will take years to get it into the black. Back around the 2005 All Star break, Bud Selig was in rare form about the Marlins (a riff from a THT notes column):
Bud on the Marlins: “They keep saying they still think they're going to get something done, they need to get something done…If they're optimistic and hopeful, I am, too…I'm always concerned about teams that need new stadiums, and it's obvious they do. That's not a secret somehow there has to be the political will and the private-sector will to get a stadium built. I mean, they are struggling mightily.''
Well, the Marlins are five games out of the wild card. Guess what? Is it possible that maybe the fire sales (real and threatened), the threat of moving the team to Las Vegas, the bad mouthing of the team and stadium, the broken promises (“We‘ll build our own stadium!”), the lies (“We’re losing our shirts! Our accountants say so!”), the sleaze (taking away the All-Star Game), and the insulting of the fan base (“Miami will never be major league until they cough up several hundred million in corporate welfare”) might have something to do with those struggles? Do you think that trying to rip-off the taxpayers with yet another boondoggle will build up any goodwill?
Bud on a Marlins’ move: “There isn't anybody at the front of the line for moving. There isn't anybody moving anywhere right now.”
Translation: Wanted—city willing to pork over a half-billion dollars in corporate welfare. Must be willing be bend over a table and like it. Must not be overly concerned with pennant races, playoff baseball, and championships, while giving priority to luxury suites, club seating and high ticket prices. Must be willing to provide references from the citizenry in Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Colorado. Intelligent people and discerning consumers need not apply.
If MLB hadn’t been so obsessed with squeezing every last dollar out of South Florida, the Marlins would be in a new ballpark right now. However Selig and Co. are still threatening that if the Liaria and Sam(son of a)… have to put too much of their own money into the pork, er park, they wouldn’t have enough left over to field a competitive club. Yup, on one hand, baseball’s revenues are over $6 billion, the Marlins receive revenue sharing that outstrips their payroll expenses, plus the exploding revenues from MLBAM and they’re still demanding to be allowed to grab South Florida by their ankles and shake them until every last penny comes tumbling out. Therefore, it’s off to Puerto Rico in search of money that would be devoted to schools and public services but Selig thinks should be earmarked for the wealthy.
Rotting Fish… Other than a rousing game of limbo… The Bible, David, Samson vs. natural selection Is Larry Beinfest History’s Greatest Monster? Please Stop Hitting The Hot Button WTF?! Battered Fish Dumb And Dumber Blackmail Black Knights and Black Humor
R.I.P. Joe Kennedy and condolences to his family and his year old son. Your daddy was a big leaguer. You'll be proud of him. Become a man your father could be as equally proud. That's the finest way to honour his memory.
Best Regards
John
Sunday, November 18

TPoSGD: November 18, 2007 - How the mighty have fallen...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Sun 18 Nov 2007 11:12 AM EST
Schadenfreude is not something of which I like to partake. Lord knows I have screwed up on numerous occasions and loath the idea that my misfortune has made somebody’s day. With that being the case, I strive to be empathetic whenever possible. I figure if I wish for folks to be in my corner when my fortunes are in a bear market that I am obligated to act likewise.
At the same time, I have made no secret of my dislike of Scott Boras’s modus operandi. He is a showman who has never shied from the spotlight even if it hurts the people that pay his salary. Agents ideally should be like umpires in that if they’re doing a good job you do not even notice they are there. A number of reports indicate that players that hire Boras must understand that he needs complete freedom to handle negotiations in whatever manner he sees fit.
Finally, it appears, some players are beginning to feel that they feel that they’re working for the agent and not the other way around. How hard would it have been for Boras to get $300 million guaranteed from the New York Yankees? Had Boras used the full 10 day period prior to when a decision on Alex Rodriguez’s opt out needed to be made, chances are the Yankees would’ve offered an extension that totalled $300 million when added to the final three years of A-Rod’s pre-existing deal.
It’s obvious that Rodriguez wished to remain in pinstripes so why all the drama and ill feelings?
I guess it was about Scott Boras wishing to hit another financial grand slam as he did seven years ago. I have no doubts that he was confident he could get at least a $350 million contract and probably felt that $400 million was within reach. As we discussed a couple of days ago, Boras gunned for a quarter billion dollars in 2000 and got it. I can’t see him thinking that his $350 million baseline meant he was actually looking for $275 million. He saw the revenues in baseball and he had one of the game’s great players in his stable and still young enough to produce. Boras thinks he is so much more cunning than every GM and owner in the game that he could easily get the bidding up to the levels he envisioned.
It begs the question though, suppose the bidding got up around the $350 million mark without the Yankees part of the process. I’m inclined to think that he would convince his client to take the offer even though he wanted to remain with the Bronx Bombers.
That’s the problem. Who is working for whom here? Kenny Rogers stated quite clearly that he wished to stay in Detroit. Where did all this ‘return to Texas’ and shopping the Tigers’ offer come from? In both cases, Boras would look for top dollar and hoped his client would take it despite his preferences.
Who is the MLBPA working for nowadays--the agents or the players? It’s easy to understand why Marvin Miller thinks little of Boras. He is getting to the point where free agent players and draft picks are more about his career as an agent than the players he represents. Shouldn’t the union be telling Boras to back off a bit? They won’t do that of course because Don Fehr and Gene Orza care more about the salary bar and their own ideologies than what the players may wish for their careers. Suppose for a moment that a club went nuts as Tom Hicks and put a mind-blowing offer on the table … say 10 years/$400 million. Let’s say that team is the Washington Nationals. Will Boras and Fehr recommend that A-Rod take the Nats offer or maybe see if he can return to New York?
Sadly, we know the outcome of that situation--and it is pathetic. The players need another Marvin Miller. The MLBPA and certain player agents have become the new team owners and GM’s of the post Messersmith/McNally era--they have too much control over where free agents decide to play and that is so very wrong. Soon a salary cap will come to baseball and quite possibly NFL-type non-guaranteed contracts unless the union pulls itself together. It is time for other players to stand up and take their careers back from servitude to the salary bar.
Bottom line … yeah, it looks good on Scott Boras and I hope it is not his last indignity. He may be enriching his clients over the short term but over the long term, it is going to cost the players plenty.
On to other matters ….
Probably the number one problem Barry Bonds will have in trying to prove he never knowingly ingested anabolic steroids is this: His physique and bodily changes indicate long term usage. It is one thing to claim that he thought Greg Anderson gave him flaxseed oil under his tongue and to rub on his leg. It is quite another to state that it happened multiple times over several years. A couple of cycles of THG and or hGH will not produce the long term effect observed on Bonds hence it’s pretty obvious he will have a difficult time explaining how he unknowingly ingested steroids so many times over an extended period.
All of us notice when our body changes. Our old clothes don’t fit as well either being too loose or too tight, we have trouble squeezing our frame into certain situations where we never had problems before. In Bonds’ case, it would be a stretch to think that your hat is too tight despite the fact you are no longer sporting hair to be a little bit odd. I am about the same age as Barry Bonds and when these changes happen, I, like most, look for reasons why. Am I eating properly, am I burning fewer calories? Do I need to exercise more? Is it I’m just getting older? Is there anything I can do about this? We rarely just shrug our shoulder and say ‘Oh well, c’est la vie’ especially if our body is the primary tool of our trade.
Bonds underwent an extreme bodily change above and beyond the extra weight we tend to add as we age. It’s very difficult to believe that a professional athlete undergoing such a metamorphosis would not stop and think ‘Just what have I been taking anyway?’
Bottom line, despite his lawyer’s rhetoric, he will probably suggest Bonds cut a deal and not take a chance on a jury trial. The deal you make for yourself is generally less onerous than the deal forced upon you should you choose to fight a very difficult battle. Had Pete Rose walked into Bart Giamatti’s office and said ‘Mr. Commissioner, I have a problem and I desperately need help, here is what has happened …’ chances are he would be in the Hall of Fame and working in some capacity in MLB. In that scenario, Rose would serve a suspension of probably less than five years, be vilified by members of the press for a short time but be ultimately forgiven. Now he is a pariah.
If Barry Bonds admits guilt, cuts a deal and explains that his ego and desire to be the best got the better of him. While it doesn’t excuse what he did, a lot of players were juicing. Therefore, to regain his status as the best player in baseball he felt he needed to level the playing field. In time, chances are he would be viewed much like the hero of a Greek Tragedy. A god brought down by his own hubris only to find redemption and forgiveness in humility. We don’t want our heroes to be gods, we wish them to be just like us since it means that we all have potential greatness within our mortal coils. That’s why we’re so forgiving to the truly repentant, it assures us that indeed we are not unlike those to whom we look up.
Will Barry Bonds learn from the past? Doubtful, another human trait is that we feel that our own circumstances are somehow unique and past lessons simply don’t apply. It is Einstein’s very definition of insanity--doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. Barry Bonds lives in the same insane world we all do.
Best Regards
John
Saturday, November 17

TPoSGD: November 17, 2007 - No Fehr for Barry Bonds?...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Sat 17 Nov 2007 11:19 AM EST
A lot of folks are bemoaning the timing of Barry Bonds’ indictment. They say ‘Why couldn’t this happen before he broke Hank Aaron’s record?’ The thing is, it may well have come at the worst possible time for one Barry Lamar Bonds. Here is the thing, there has been a lot written about how his career is not just over, so are his Hall of Fame chances. Initially I thought the first part was likely if for no other reason than by the time all these legal procedures have run their course, Bonds may be too old and rusty to play. I thought the whole ‘Barry Bonds will be banned for life a la Pete Rose and ‘Shoeless Joe’ was little more than overwrought rhetoric.
Then it hit me.
Bonds filed for free agency. This means he is not employed by major league baseball. I assume this also means he is not under the protection of the MLBPA--a private citizen as it were. Unless I am misunderstanding, the fact that he is not under contract, ergo not subject to the collective bargaining agreement means if Bud Selig were to ban him for life then Bonds would have to seek legal redress rather than arbitration.
Of course, perhaps a player has to file retirement papers with both the league and the union before he is outside the umbrella of the MLBPA. I will have to touch base with some folks and find out what is what in this regard. If Bonds is not covered by the CBA, he will have to fight a permanently ineligible ruling in court.
So maybe the whole ‘blew his chance for the Hall of Fame’ has some legs.
To me, it is absurd. I always laugh when people talk about the clause in HOF voting about character, integrity and sportsmanship. Allow me an analogy, up to very recently certain statistical baselines generally guaranteed a spot in the Heroes Gallery whether it is 3000 hits, 500 HR or 300 wins. So then, what is the baseline for ‘character, integrity and sportsmanship’? Ty Cobb was not only a charter member of the Hall of Fame he was also the number one vote getter … so there ya go.
Heh.
The thing that bothers me about all this is the fact that a lot of tremendous players have been nasty to the media. The BBWAA members realize that to not vote for players like Eddie Murray, Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton, Rod Carew etc. would reveal them as small and petty. Barry Bonds has given them an out to deny a player honours due to his prickly personality--and its steroids and a grand jury indictment. This is something tangible they can point to as why they voted no when in reality they went thumbs-down because Bonds acted like the south end of a north bound mule blowing kisses into their faces.
Of course, Bonds could fight an attempted Selig banishment on antitrust grounds that may obligate them to settle out of court on a finite suspension. The Mitchell Report may prove that Bonds was simply one of a vast number of juiced players in which case the media may hold their noses and vote from him or risk looking like total hypocrites.
The Bonds Market...
Switching gears for a moment…
I have got to go waaaaay off-topic. At Baseball Think Factory (my cyber clubhouse), a primate (AKA a poster) named Gaelan made a terrific point about sample sizes. I’ll post it without editorial comment but I want it here so I can always find and reference it:
Everyone here knows the power of sample size. The larger the sample size the more reliable your statistics. It is because of sample size that things like MLE work. The problem with any sample is that it is based upon the assumption that for any sample that is drawn from events across time, the thing that is being measured (in this case ability) has not changed. In many cases this assumption turns out to be valid which is why statistics have any use at all. The problem is that there is no way of knowing, on the basis of statistics alone, whether this assumption is valid. Which is another way of saying that statistics are not self-grounding. It stands to reason then that an intelligent observer would want to ground those statistics in meaningful first hand observations.
For example there are many instances that we know, without a shadow of a doubt, that a player's ability has changed. For instance:
1) when a player is young and developing their skills 2) when a player is old and losing skills 3) when a player is injured 4) when a pitcher learns a new pitch
In all of these cases the assumption that underlies statistical analysis is not reasonable. Circumstances have intruded and disrupted the sample size that gives statistics its power. Moreover if you are making a decision worth millions of dollars you don't have the luxury to wait and let the player build a new sample size. You need to make a decision now and the sample size you have is not reliable.
This should be obvious. It's well known that pitcher projections are much less reliable than the projections for hitters. The hard core stat bias is to say that this is due to luck. A more reasonable explanation is that the "true" ability that is being measured has actual variance (dead arm, hurt arm, new pitches, etc.). A smart man will send someone to watch that pitcher and not rely on unreliable projections. Finally, my recent columns are up (oh no, not again!) although I have still got a couple in the hopper at MSN. The Hardball Times piece is the culmination of my search for baseball’s 100/100/100 men that I entitled The 300 Club. I was actually disappointed in the final result (the column itself); the research was fun and all but I couldn’t give it the oomph (oomph? Who says oomph anymore away from the loo?) I had hoped.
The MSN column was dealing with the Bonds indictment and how Barry Bonds made himself Baseball's Fall Guy for the steroid era. I also did one on the A-Rod negotiation where I can finally give the man some props away from the diamond. I have ranted here often about what has happened to free agency and I am thrilled that Mr. Rodriguez had the epiphany that he could go wherever he wanted on whatever terms he found satisfactory. Read the Wall Street Journal’s account of Mr. Rodriguez taking the reins from Scott Boras and deciding for himself where he wished to play in 2008 and beyond. Again, all I can say is--well done.
Best Regards
John
Saturday, November 3

TPoSGD: November 3, 2007 - Borashole
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Sat 03 Nov 2007 11:27 AM EDT
Well, I have spent the last couple of hours checking out various remarks and fallout from Scott Boras and Alex Rodriguez’s decision to opt out of the remainder of his ten-year contract signed back in 2001. The most entertaining of these, without a doubt, come from the horse’s er … um, ahhh mouth (or the orifice at the opposite end of the equine spectrum).
Of course, I love Boras’s claims that "I would say that state of flux is a grand issue, we're talking about a long-term contract here, and to make that decision is difficult, knowing there are that many issues up in the air" and "Without Pettitte, Rivera and Posada, it's not the same team, he's held accountable for being on a playoff team and winning in the playoffs."
Heh, nice job there in giving the Yankees less than zero seconds into the off-season to resolve these issues.
Another reason he gave for opting out was in discussing the 2008 season, Hank Steinbrenner had used the words “transition” and “patience” to this Boras said: “I’ve known George for 25 years and I’ve never heard him use those words, I don’t know what those words mean. I do know I have a player who is held accountable for winning in the postseason and there’s concern that the direction of the New York Yankees has changed.”
They are opening up a $1 billion ballpark soon and he is afraid the Yankees are going to inaugurate it with a rebuilding effort? When Buster Olney broke the news that Boras told the Yankees that it would take a $350 million opening bid to get them to the table, Boras stated the perfectly vague “I’ve had no discussions with the Yankees about economics.”
What, the stock market, the value of the dollar, Bill Gates latest development, Alan Greenspan’s latest statement ... what?
Of course, Boras has already sent his head medium into the closest cemetery to Wall Street to enlist help in resurrecting ‘phantom offers.’ Again, Boras is suitably vague: "There's great interest, because teams involved understand what the revenues in the game are, and a player like Alex pays for itself.” You’ll note that no price levels have been discussed. Every team would be interested in a third baseman capable of mashing 50 HR but I think the asking price might be off-putting. Then, in typical Boras style "There are the teams that you'd assume would be interested, and there are surprises. But I'm not going to acknowledge what teams are interested or involved. If they want to acknowledge it, that's fine, but it won't come from me."
This is his usual schtick to get teams to bid against themselves. Boras tells his marks that there is a team with an offer on the table that is on par with theirs both in years and total package. He just never informs them that the particular team is the one they own.
Boras insists that “Mr. Opt-ober” (I can’t take credit for this--but it’s pretty good) is that special player with I.P.N. (Iconic magnetism, historic Performance, and Network value). He calculates that, A-Rod’s I.P.N. adds up to $80 million to his next team’s annual cash flow, thereby justifying a 10-year/$400 million deal.
Sports economist Andrew Zimbalist feels Boras’ claim is asinine: “A-Rod does have some iconic value, I guess, but he didn’t do himself a financial favor by opting out of his Yankees contract.”
That’s for sure, I wonder if Boras has heard of the internet? He has managed to draw yet another target on his client’s forehead, a bigger and better one than before. If folks thought the fallout in 2001 post-252 was ugly, wait until 2008. The loathing seeping through my modem is incredible. I have read numerous comparisons to Terrell Owens--ouch. The thing is, Scott Boras is one of the most hated men in sports and has made A-Rod his psychic Siamese-twin; when you think Alex Rodriguez you think Scott Boras and vice-versa and the other way in reverse (quoting that one-time Oscar winning rabbit).
A-Rod’s historic performance is a function of his durability; in his 14 seasons he has led the league in OPS+ twice (same as Jason Giambi, Travis Hafner, Don Mattingly, Joe Morgan, Willie Stargell, Dick Allen and Mike Piazza) and is seventh among active players (in career adjusted OPS). Here are a few others (not a comprehensive list): Frank Thomas has topped the league leader board three times, Mark McGwire four, Mike Schmidt six, and Barry Bonds nine times (four pre-BALCO). Schmidt and Bonds both had five consecutive years where they led their league in that department.
As I mentioned at the Hardball Times this week: “After Rodriguez’s monster year, his career OPS+ is 147. Ten players are right around that—five above and five below. The five in front are Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vladmir Guerrero and Jason Giambi. The five just behind him are Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield. In the cases of Thomas, Ramirez, Thome and Giambi, this includes a good chunk of their decline phase—something Rodriguez has yet to begin.”
Yes, he’s on pace to top the all-time home run record but he’s an icon at Baseball Reference, the general public still need more than Boras’s opinion before he can put in the same class as Mike Schmidt. Schmidt's career OPS+ is the same as Rodriguez's and includes his decline phase. There's also those 10 Gold Gloves and while his post-season résumé is unimpressive, he does have a ring and hit .381/.462/.714 with two HR, six runs scored and seven RBI in that particular World Series.
Getting back to Zimbalist: the Yankees play on baseball’s biggest stage and in its biggest (and most lucrative) market. Their new digs that will open in 2009, will goose yearly revenue by about another $50 million (according to Zimbalist) from tickets and premium seating. They want to open it with a bang and to alienate a potential bidder like that is quite frankly, stupid.
Other Boras wisdom: He views Rodriguez’s ‘current’ salary (or the baseline for negotiations) as $32 million because of escalator clauses for 2009 and 2010 in the original deal contract. Here he is trying to have his cake and eat it too; it was never A-Rod’s salary since that salary was dependent on not opting out of the deal. One cannot opt out of the remainder of a deal then claim its provisions provide a precedent. If Alex Rodriguez never received $32 million a year for playing baseball, then he cannot negotiate as if he did.
Probably the worst thing Boras said was this:
"That's a characterization that, when you look at the data, is frankly inaccurate, if you look at Alex's first season in New York, I believe he was 7-for-16 with two home runs and five RBIs going into Game 4 in Boston. The brilliant Mariano Rivera, probably the only flaw he's made in a historic career over the postseason, if he got those three outs (in the ninth inning of Game 4), Alex would have been in the World Series and he would have been held to have a great postseason.”
No matter how diplomatically he puts it--that is classless and presumes that the pressure would not have gotten to him in the World Series. He had three other playoff games to prove that and failed. To blame Rivera, regardless of the lofty words used to describe him, is cadaverine-scented putrescence at its worst.
Finally, in the sheer comedy department: If you go to A-Rod's online journal you’ll notice this gem from 2006, dated shortly after the Tigers eliminated the Yankees in the ALDS:
"After we were eliminated on Saturday, the media asked me a lot of questions regarding my future in New York -- whether I want to leave, or if I will be traded, etc. I will tell you what I told them: I am 100 percent committed to being a Yankee now and in the future. I don't want to play anywhere else. I never have (and never will) run away from the responsibility I have to this team. I believe I am part of the solution to winning a championship here. I want to finish my career in New York."
I’ll bet it will be taken down pretty soon but Google or Wayback probably have it archived already.
Hilarious.
Best Regards
John
Friday, November 2

TPoSGD: November 2, 2007 - When stream-of-consciousness meets momentum...
by
Joe Hamrahi
on Fri 02 Nov 2007 11:29 AM EDT
For a blog I hoped to devote to Blue Jays ramblings I haven’t talked a lot about the Blue Birds. I guess they haven’t done much to inspire conversation and I’ve pretty much covered off what I wanted to say regarding 2007. There’s a fair bit I wish to touch on so there will be some jumping around from thought-to-thought today.
As far as promoting or more pointedly, not promoting this blog goes, Ball-Hype stumbled across it yesterday and asked if I wanted it added to their site. Since they found me fair-and-square I said yes because I won’t turn down an uninitiated offer to link to me. Now, The Progenitor of Severe Glutial Discomfort or TPoSGD (as Jason at Ball-Hype called it) is listed there … here's a link..
Other than Jason and myself, I don’t think too many people are aware of its existence. It does give me some time at any rate to add some meat to its bones before it becomes noticed. As mentioned, my weekly columns are both live; the Hardball Times article--“Battling Boras” discusses how a potential team may deal with the agent’s outrageous predictions used to justify yet another record contract for Alex Rodriguez. I’m really getting the impression that this is more about Boras than A-Rod.
I wouldn’t be surprised if some time after Rodriguez retires, we will read about A-Rod describing how he felt he let Boras have too much influence over him. Rodriguez appears to be a guy who is quite sensitive to criticism yet he continues to allow himself to be put in situations that make him look bad. Obviously, money is an issue--no surprise there yet he seems to give Boras’s free reign to handle matters without giving the agent feedback on how he prefers to have things done.
It looks like first Boras sells Rodriguez on an idea (opting out and becoming a free agent), then convincing him to give him a free hand to run the show before he starts selling A-Rod’s services. I cannot see a player thinking it would be a terrific idea to announce his intentions in the middle of what is considered the most important part of the season.
The thing is, how many of A-Rod’s contradictory statements are due to the following scenario: Rodriguez speaks his mind. Boras convinces A-Rod that a course of action opposite of his statements is in his best interests. Rodriguez follows Boras’ suggestions. Maybe A-Rod genuinely wanted to stay in the Bronx and Boras appealed to his ego and the lure of untold riches to sway him.
What if Boras asked/told his client:
- “Do you really want to stay in a city where the fans will turn on you the next time you go 6-for-40?”
- “You’re the best player in baseball, don’t you deserve to be in a place where fans recognize that?”
- “You gave the Yankees four outstanding years and won two MVP but they only got as far as the ALCS once. They haven’t won a World Series since 2000--maybe they have lost their touch. Perhaps a different team can use your talent to go all the way.”
- “Let’s face it, you could win the MVP five more times however the New York media will always say Derek Jeter is the reason for the Yankees’ success.”
- “The game is rolling in money like never before, it is players like you that are the reason for it. Guys like Jason Giambi, Manny Ramirez, Vernon Wells all have or will have years where they will earn $20 million or more. The Yankees last season paid Roger Clemens a pro-rated $28 million for less than 100 innings, a .500 record and a 4.18 ERA. In light of that, don’t you think you’re a bit underpaid?”
- “If you wait three years, you’ll be 35-36 next time free agency comes around. What if you lose a year to injury? That will hurt your market value significantly. If you want one more big contract, it’s now or never. You owe it to your family to make sure they’re looked after--it’s not greed, it’s called being a responsible family man.”
- “Have I ever let you down? I got you a record setting contract, I got you on a contending team and I can do it again. Trust me Alex, we’ve been friends a long time and I would never do anything damaging to you.”
- “The Yankees have the most money, they can’t afford to lose you. If you really want to stay with them, I’m sure it will work out. There’s no way they won’t bid.
Push those particular buttons and it’s hard not to see A-Rod seeing things Boras’s way.
It appears the Marlins uber-masher Miguel Cabrera is available for the right trade. In his age 22-24 seasons, the kid has posted OPS+ of 151, 159 and 150; compare that to A-Rod (136, 134, and 162) or Manny Ramirez (124, 147, and 146) at those ages. While there are some issues regarding his attitude and conditioning habits (or lack thereof), there’s no doubt he’s an intriguing talent. Unless he gets himself into shape, he’s got DH written all over him since his defense in the outfield corners and third base indicate that his hitting isn’t the only thing that reminds folks of Manny Ramirez.
If the Yankees pursue him (where hiring Cabrera’s former manager Joe Girardi makes things interesting), a nice contract extension with clauses/bonuses related to weight and conditioning might help him focus on other aspects of his game. If Mike Lowell re-ups with Boston and Cabrera comes to the Bronx then Scott Boras’s job gets that much more challenging.
If I’m the Red Sox, I ignore Rodriguez; a lot of things go into a championship roster and for now, they have all the pieces in place. I’d be leery of making a change of that magnitude to what they have right now--regardless of the talent involved. Don’t forget, the Yankees had played in six of the eight previous World Series before acquiring Rodriguez and everybody predicted that the Bronx Bombers had ensured a spot in the Fall Classic for years to come.
Baseball doesn’t work that way--it’s a team game; one man generally isn’t a difference maker between a champion and an also-ran. Here are some other recent examples:
- 1996: Indians lose Albert Belle. In 1997, they make it to the postseason.
- 1996: White Sox sign Albert Belle. In 1997, they miss the postseason.
- 1999: Mariners lose Ken Griffey Jr. In 2000, they make it to the postseason.
- 1999: Reds acquire Ken Griffey Jr. after finishing second in the division. In 2000, they miss the postseason.
- 2000: Indians lose Manny Ramirez. In 2001, they make it to the postseason.
- 2000: Red Sox sign Manny Ramirez. In 2001, they miss the postseason.
- 2000: Mariners lose Alex Rodriguez. In 2001, they make it to the postseason.
- 2000: Rangers sign Alex Rodriguez. In 2001-03, they miss the postseason.
- 2001: A’s lose Jason Giambi. In 2002, they make it to the postseason.
- 2001: Yankees sign Jason Giambi. In 2001, they fail to defend 2000 World Series title.
- 2007: Tigers acquire Gary Sheffield. In 2007, they fail to defend their AL title and miss the postseason.
- 2007: Yankees trade Gary Sheffield. In 2007, they make it to the postseason.
If you have a contending team, then losing one player generally doesn’t change that. If he’s lost via free agency, the team simply uses that money to replace the lost production or shore up other areas. If an average team acquires a very talented player, then you’ve generally got an average team with a talented player. The players cited above either are future Hall of Famers or players well on their way at the time who were derailed for some reason (Giambi: steroids, Belle: career ending injury) yet we see the lack of impact on their old and new teams.
Enough of that for now. There will be lots of words to come on all this since it’s going to be a long, drawn out affair.
The MSN article was: The impact of the Mitchell Report. Same old, same old; follow the money and you’ll see the importance of this to Bud Selig.
A final thought: Barry Bonds recently gave an interview where he said he will boycott the Hall of Fame if his asterisked baseball is put on display and there’s an interesting discussion going on at Baseball Think Factory regarding it. Bonds will be learning a lesson that everybody will one day understand: You will reap what you sow. When Bonds was on top of the world he could the dictate terms of any relationship--whether personal or professional--because he was Barry Bonds®.
While he holds several major records, his name doesn’t inspire the same feelings that Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or Babe Ruth invoke. Retirement is soon--possibly an enforced in 2008 and while his amazing talent will be missed, his personality will not be; it’s as when Albert Belle’s degenerative hip obligated the moody slugger to hang up his cleats. Folks missed watching him swing the bat, but the feeling was generally one of profound relief--there was no more need to walk on eggshells when he was around.
However, Bonds is still trying to dictate terms to those around him--in this case the Hall of Fame. Bonds is a bit of an oddity; while he doesn’t wish to be bothered or approached at the same time, he doesn’t want to be ignored either. He’s Barry Bonds®, his probable, though alleged steroid use began when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa’s home run chase in 1998 was eclipsing his star. He wanted his spotlight back and did whatever it took to reacquire it.
He gave himself a way out to change his mind when he’s elected and I think he will. Despite his rhetoric he, and probably a couple of other players will be inducted into the Hall; Bonds will want his spotlight back as he did in 1998. He’ll show up in Cooperstown if for not other reason that he will not allow either the attendees or the other Hall of Famers present to forget that he’s Barry Bonds®--one of the all time greats in the game.
Right now, between trying to find a job in 2008 and the stigma of the asterisked ball in the Hall, he will soon understand that the bill for all the slights he gave others, whether to baseball executives, players, fans or media have come due and must be paid. He will be forced to deal the fact that he used to be Barry Bonds®.
More on Bonds….
Finally…Drunk Jays Fans posted yesterday: It's November, Isn't It? Start voting for Tom Cheek every day! The post reads in part:
"Every Jays fan knows that it's a travesty how the legendary Tom Cheek has been continually passed over for the Ford C. Frick award-- baseball's highest honour for a broadcaster. Well, throughout the month of November the Hall is taking votes from fans to help put three names on the 10-name ballot. You're allowed one vote per IP address per day. So show your respect for Tom by clicking the nifty little banner at the top of the page, above the Boggs head, and let's finally right this wrong!" I had the privilege of meeting Cheek and getting to know Jerry Howarth (who was kind enough to have my nephews as guests of his for a game last August 19 and recorded a personal message to them that I will always be grateful to him for doing) over the last couple of years. They’re both fine men and tremendous broadcasters and deserve to be honoured. So, click the link to Drunk Jays Fans and vote! Don’t forget to leave a comment to show your support!
Best Regards
John
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