The Rolen for Glaus trade is pretty close in terms of value- one slugging 3B with serious health concerns for another. Their offensive numbers when healthy are very similar, and although Rolen has piled up the gold gloves, Glaus is a pretty good fielder himself. In order to be able to provide any real further insight into which teams wins, I would have to be a doctor or have the ability to see in the future. I can't do that. But I can tell you what these guys were up to last season using pitch f/x data.

Troy Glaus

Despite being injured out of the gate, Glaus actually had a pretty good season in 2007 despite limited time. Early on he seemed to have cut back on his all-or-nothing hitting stroke and was hitting for a good average although slightly less power. But his Plantar Fasciitis just got worse as the season progressed and he went into the tank after the all-star break.

Troy is a very disciplined hitter, and takes a lot of pitches. Here are all the pitches he did not put in play last season (from the catcher's perspective).



Notice that Glaus hardly ever chases balls either low and away. In fact, Troy had the third fewest swings in the league on balls out of the strike zone (partly a result of the fact he doesn't swing a lot, period). Now here are the pitches he managed to put in play:


As you can see, Glaus hammers the ball low (even up) and in, while most of his singles come on pitches that are low or away. You can see this in another way on his Hot Zone. His foot problems may have sapped Glaus' ability to reach for balls away from him and drive them, but he can still turn on a pitch in his wheelhouse with the best of them.

Scott Rolen

Scott Rolen’s shoulder was supposed to get stronger the second year after surgery, but instead he had a terrible season and eventually ended up needing another operation to remove scar tissue. What went wrong last year? Rolen lost some of his bat speed (which was derisively referred to as being "slider speed").

Let's take a look at how Rolen did against three different types of pitches- breaking balls, above average (91 mph) fastballs and then everything else (all cutters, splitters, change-ups, 2 seamers, etc) lumped into another category. For a different look at him pitch by pitch, check out his player card as well.

Pitch Type Ball Taken Called Strike Swinging Strike Foul Fly Out Ground Out Hit Line Out Pop Out
Breaking Ball 31.34 16.42 1.49 25.81 3.23 4.84 7.46 1.61 3.23
Middle Stuff 35.66 19.67 5.74 12.23 5.68 6.99 6.15 1.75 1.75
Above Average Heat 34.4 15.00 6.67 18.13 6.43 8.19 5.00 1.17 1.75

Not only did Rolen swing and miss at a lot of fastballs in 2007, he made a lot of outs when he did make contact. He fouled off a lot of breaking pitches, but that's normal (and is largely a result of where and in what counts they were thrown in) otherwise he hit them well. In general, the faster the ball was thrown the less favorable a result It was for him.

Now to look at his pitch selection- here’s all the pitches that he either took for a ball, swung through, or made an out with. Not that Rolen's strike zone is about 3.5 inches shorter than Glaus'.



In 2007, Rolen fouled off and popped up a lot of pitches that were right down the middle, which is the same thing that Vernon Wells did last year with a bum shoulder. He’s a little less selective than Glaus (0.474 of his swings came on pitches out of the zone), but has better plate coverage- he doesn’t let as many strikes go by, and he doesn’t miss balls out of the zone as badly. As you would guess by comparing the rest of their numbers (less power, fewer walks, more hits) Rolen is more aggressive and has a more controlled swing.

Now here’s where Rolen’s hits came from. Notice he is taking pitches to the opposite field for doubles, and turning on pitches inside for his home runs. Notice nothing in on the hands- I found the same thing for Alex Rios- if you can get the pitch right in on his hands, he has a hard time with it. But otherwise good plate coverage to either side, hence his career splits that are almost even against left and right handed pitching (as opposed to Glaus who mashes Lefties but is pedestrian against right handed pitching).



It’s a small sample size, but you get the idea. Until he can prove that his shoulder is better pitchers will challenge him with the fastball (which could lead to a lot of whiffs in April if Thomas comes out slow again as well), but even with a bum shoulder Rolen has no problem with taking outside pitches the opposite way for a double.

As for Glaus, the question is whether he can play a full season on a surface other than FieldTurf. Both seasons with the Jays his numbers were affected by a huge slump in the second half due to physical problems. Otherwise, he still has the eye and his ability with the bat is not an issue.