This is simple: we invite bloggers from a specific team to answer and
debate a set of five questions I have previously sent them. Their
answers are below. Readers are invited to debate the answers with the
bloggers themselves in the Comments section below.
The goal is
to provide a platform for bloggers to debate their team and
philosophies in one place and have fun while doing that. We plan on
publishing two Bloggers Roundtable every week, in order to give readers a
regular look at news and opinions from their respective teams' bloggers
community.
All the previous Roundtables can be found on this page.
The bloggers today:
The Cheat - South Side Sox
Mike Pindelski - The Bard's Room
Question 1: How do you feel about the chances for the White Sox to win the Central Division in the next 5 years, if you compare the team to the other and the progress they've made?
The Cheat: In two words: not good. Pulling numbers out my, um, ear, I'd say they have about a 50-55% chance of winning the division in the next 5 years. In 2008, I see the division being a dogfight between Cleveland and eventual winner Detroit, with the same two fighting again next year. After that, it's hard to project much. The Twins could be the favorite in a couple years if
they dump Santana/Nathan now or maybe even at the deadline. If they had Cabrera, Hughes, plus a highly touted prospect, I'd install them as favorites over the '10-'11 seasons. But right now, it's just too hard to project where any of the 5 teams in the central are going to be in 3-5
years.
As for the Sox themselves. They've added youth to their aging core, but I'm very hesitant about the major league viability of much of their youth. They've added Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin, and Alexei Ramirez all of whom seem like they could wash out. Josh Fields, their best young hitter, has a truly unique ability to swing and miss at fastballs. Their young pitching consists of Gavin Floyd (in whom I have a surprising amount of faith), John Danks (not so much faith), Lance Broadway (back end starter), and Jack Egbert (Fringy, but promising peripherals).
Because they have literally no major league position prospects above A-ball, these are he guys they'll be looking to not just in '08, but '09 and '10 as well. That's an awful lot of faith to place in a bunch of fringy to average talents. Nick Swisher is exactly the kind of player Williams needed to add this off-season, but will it be enough? I fear that it won't.
Mike: Five years down the line is quite a while and we all know just how unpredictable the game of baseball is, but realistically I just don't see the White Sox winning the Central anytime soon.
With the moves Kenny Williams made this winter, he's clearly showed the organization wants to win now, but I don't think they will win now given just how competitive the division is. Given the moves he's made, the team should easily improve upon their 72-90 record from last season, but it will almost certainly require 90+ wins to win the division or the Wild Card and the Sox just aren't a 90-win team to me.
To make matters worse, he dealt the Sox top positional prospect in Chris Carter along with their top two pitching prospects in Fautino de Los Santos and Gio Gonzalez completely depleting their farm system. Not only does this team want to win now, they essentially have to because they're an old team with quite possibly the worst farm system in the American League.
Question 2: Are you still convinced Ozzie Guillen is the right guy to manage the Sox to another World Series Championship? Why?
The Cheat: The easy answer is no, but that has nothing to do with his abilities as a manager. Jerry Reinsdorf gave Ozzie Guillen an extension through the 2012 season, when he hinted he would hand over control of the team to his son, Michael. With the extension, Reinsdorf essentially said he was rewarding the guys who brought him a title, which would also seem to give Williams similar job security, though he has yet to receive his 2012 extension.
(It's interesting, to me at least, that Bud Selig got an extension through the '12 season as well. Reinsdorf is Selig's unofficial #2, his right-hand man, who is sometimes referred to as "the second most powerful man in baseball" in only a half-joking manner. Perhaps they've decided to ride into the sunset together.)
Back to Ozzie... I think he's a pretty good manager. He's not without his faults, but he often doesn't get credit for the things he does very well (e.g. manage his pitching staff, keep players fresh, keep the clubhouse loose, generally creating a fun environment in which to play). And anyone who has read more than 3 columns by Jay Mariotti has wanted to call him a British term for a cigarette, so it's not like we can hold that against him.
Mike: With all of the controversy Ozzie has been through during his time as Sox manager, he was pretty quiet for the most part of 2007. He wasn't calling out athletes like Alex Rodriguez and non-athletes like Jay Mariotti last season and I like that side of Ozzie quite a bit more than his "other" side. He did have a "radio battle" with 670 the Score's Mike North in May, but hey, nobody's perfect. On the field, I like the way he handles his pitching staff in terms of pitch counts. He's not afraid to let his pitchers get their work in, but he rarely forces them to pitch past the dreaded 120+ pitch mark. He's still a bunt happy manager who isn't afraid to send a runner on the basepaths, but he's cooled down on both fronts over the past couple of years which is a plus to me because I've never been a big fan of American League teams bunting or stealing bases with high frequency.
As a whole though, I really like the guy and I believe he can guide the Sox to another World Series if he's given the talent. By all accounts his players love him and establishing strong relationships with your players might be the most important part of a manager's job.
The defining moment of Ozzie's career with the Sox (at least for me) came in the moments following Game Two of the World Series. After Scott Podsednik hit a walk-off home run to win the game, Ozzie immediately went to Bobby Jenks, who blew the save in the previous half-inning, to console him and make sure that he knew the team was behind him.
I'm not sure many major league managers would have done that, but Guillen did and he clearly shows compassion toward his players.
Question 3: What is your reaction to the trade that brought Nick Swisher to Chicago?
The Cheat: It was a fair trade. I have to divorce myself from the prospects involved to make that statement -- pretend they're from another organization. You don't see players of Swisher's caliber traded, at least not with 5 cost-controlled years left on their contract. And that's because the cost in prospect talent is going to be steep. So the Sox gave up their top two prospects this year, and their #1 prospect from a year ago. I can reconcile why it cost so much.
What I have a tougher time doing is answering if the move was the right one. I can't project the Sox to win the division in either of the next couple of seasons -- though I acknowledge if they have everything break their way, everything, they have a chance, albeit a slim one.
The old core of Jim Thome, Paul Konerko, Jermaine Dye, and AJ Pierzynski is locked up for 2-3 years. Outside of Buehrle, Swisher, and Josh Fields who can you project to be an average or better player in the years that follow? There's little doubt that somebody will step up, but the Sox need more than a handful to quickly grow into their new roles.
Mike: Initially I was very disappointed, but I've come around on the deal a bit. The biggest plus in the deal has to be the fact Swisher is locked down until the 2011 season at the very least (2012 depending on if his club option is exercised), at a well below market rate. A 27-year old, switch-hitting, on-base machine with plenty of pop signed potentially for the next half-decade has a *ton *of value in today's baseball world.
With all of that said however, I still wouldn't have made the deal. I'm not a big Ryan Sweeney fan, but Fautino de Los Santos and Gio Gonzalez were easily the team's two top prospect and by all accounts, two *excellent*major league pitching prospects. Yes, Gonzalez was very good at AA, but it was his *second *time around at that level and yes, Los Santos still has plenty left to prove before he reaches the majors, but it's a risk I personally wouldn't have taken.
Given todays market for free agent pitchers, the only way I'm trading two excellent prospects and a one-time top prospect is if I'm getting an elite major leaguer in return. Swisher is plenty good, but elite he is not.
Question 4: Who is your all-time favorite Chicago White Sox player? Why?
The Cheat: Frank Thomas. No explanation necessary.
Mike: Without a doubt, Frank Thomas. I wasn't around for the "Winning Ugly" days and I really started following baseball and the White Sox closely during the 1990's, so it was only natural for me to consider Thomas to be my favorite player. I know he wasn't always the best teammate and his relationship with coaching and management alike was sour at times, but he
was so exciting to watch during his hey-day and he put fans in the seats. It was so tough for me watching him single-handedly spank the White Sox with the A's in 2006.
Question 5: Name a White Sox prospect that you feel is under the radar and present him to our readers.
The Cheat: With the trades of the last 6 months, the White Sox have nothing but under-the-radar prospects and Aaron Poreda. My immediate reaction to the question is to reply Jack Egbert, a groundballing, homerun suppressing, back end rotation candidate, but he's got his own cult following on the web. My second thought was John Shelby, son of big-leaguer of the same name, but he was ranked quite highly by Kevin Goldstein at BP and was in BA's top 10. So I thought I'd highlight a couple guys who don't make anyone's top 10 list.
On the mound, be on the lookout for Lucas Harrell. Like Egbert, he's a sinkerballer with a plus changeup. Unlike Egbert, he's got a little more zip on the fastball, and was fairly well regarded coming out of HS in the 2004 draft. He had a breakout 2006 campaign that was derailed by an elbow injury, which also caused him to miss all of '07. He was back on the mound this past
summer, reportedly throwing in the low-90s, but never left instructional ball. The Sox took a similarly cautious approach with Tyler Lumsden a couple of years ago, and I expect something like Lumsden's '06 campaign from Harrell this year. He figures to go to AA Birmingham where he'll get to work with pitching coach JR Perdew, who helped Harrell make great strides in '06
at Winston-Salem. Perdew is a great teacher/coach, and I expect about one breakout campaign per season under his tutelage
Harrell and Perdew will have to work on his control, which is the biggest thing holding him back as a prospect. But Harrell actually made significant strides in '06 before walking 25 in his last 6 starts (23 innings) precededing him being shut down with the elbow injury. While Egbert is the
prospect with Brandon Webb listed as his #1 PECOTA comp, Harrell is the one with the more Webb-like stuff.
In the field, look for Sergio Miranda to surprise some people. He might not have a single above average offensive tool, but Miranda is one of those guys who gets the most out of his ability. Reportedly a very good defender at short, Miranda accumulated a troubling number of errors in just a half season after being taken in the 13th round of the '07 draft. He doesn't project to hit for any power, but if his defense is a plus, his on base skills make him a viable prospect in the mold of another former 13th rounder, Jason Bartlett.
Mike: I've always been intrigued by pitching prospect Jack Egbert.You're not going to find him on too many "top prospects" list, but he has a pretty good statistical track record.
As far as talent is concerned, his ceiling isn't the highest. He's far from overpowering, but he's a big guy (6-foot-3) who uses a heavy sinker to induce a ton of groundballs and his change-up has kept hitters off-balance in the past. At AA last season he struck out 9.2 hitters per nine innings,
walked only 2.5 hitters per nine and gave up only 0.17 home runs per nine in 161.2 innings. Clearly a guy who keeps the ball in the ballpark which is nice given how home run friendly U.S. Cellular Field is.
The downside here is that he was 24 years old pitching against less experienced hitters. The Sox really should have bumped him up to AAA to challenge him a bit. He figures on starting there to open the 2008 season.
As far as projection is concerned, Egbert seems like a solid back end of the rotation starter. That's not too appealing, but I've said it before: When Carlos Silva is signing 4-year/$48M deals, guys like Egbert all of a sudden seem real valuable.
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The Bloggers Roundtable - Chicago White Sox
by
Dave Rouleau
on Fri 25 Jan 2008 09:16 AM EST | Permanent Link
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