BDD Offers -
New Year's Resolution for the Baseball GM, by Gordon Berger
Fan Mania - The Tigers Go Wild, by Rob McQuown
Does Juan Piere Help a Team?, by Rob McQuown
Waiting For Their Pitches, by Jonathan Hale
Prospect View: Matt Antonelli - Dexter Fowler
San Diego Padres Starting Pitching Analysis
____________________________________________________
All Baseball Transactions - Thursday
- The Oakland A's traded an homegrown talent, OF/1B Nick Swisher, for three White Sox prospects: Fautino De Los Santos, Ryan Sweeney and Gio Gonzalez.
I really love this deal and the offseason William Lamar Beane is having so far. With LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP De Los Santos, he replenished his future rotation and got some good bats for his outfield, especially Carlos Gonzalez, obtained in the Dan Haren trade.
White sox GM Kenny Williams really liked Gonzalez and I'm surprised he let him go. What's not to like?
*185 K in 150 innings pitched in 2007 (577 K in 492 IP in pro career)
*1.23 average WHIP in 4 four minor league seasons (1.15 WHIP in 2007)
He had trouble keeping the ball down in 2006, allowing 24 bombs, but really began to throw down in the zone last season, with a very good 0.79 HR/9 and 52 GB%. Gonzalez is very emotional and had to work on controlling his emotions in 2007, which he did. He has a mid-90s fastball that he sinks, a good curve and an average change-up that he needs to be more consistent with. His ability to work hitters on both sides of the plate is really impressive. Here's a video of his mechanics.
Ryan Sweeney's power (see video of an at-bat) has always been in question, but analysts were too quick to dismiss him after a poor start in the majors last year, while he is still 22 years old. He offers a very good defense that includes a strong arm in the outfield and offensively, he has good contact abilities and a line-drive swing that should result in more doubles in the future. His .349 average OBP in the minors so far is not impressive and speaks of his need to be more patient and wait for his pitches to drive.
Fautino De Los Santos throws a 91-94 mph fastball, sinker, slurve and a developing change-up. He struck out 153 batters in 122.1 IP (A and AA combined) and posted an excellent 0.87 WHIP. He was a Futures Game selection in 2007 and named the South Atlantic League most outstanding major league prospect. He has a high ceiling, but most observers note that he needs to keep the ball down and make a better job of setting up hitters, because he won't always be able to get by with his stuff at higher levels of the minors and in the major leagues.
In the long term, Oakland clearly got the best of that deal, but as Williams mention in his press conference, he had to go out and get a player that was not available, so that meant giving up a lot. That's exactly what he did and Beane again showed how it's done.
- I had a short but interesting exchange with the Stats Guru himself (David Pinto) yesterday after I saw one of his post about the Oakland trade. You have Ray Ratto going the negative way and John Sickels taking a step back to analyze.
My point was that it's interesting to see the traditional journalists trying to stir up s*** by observing the short term gain or losses, and on the other hand seeing the bloggers and new generation of reporters analyze what the big picture is. As as I'm concerned, John Sickels is right, Beane is making sure the farm system is full and ready to contend again in 2009-2010. What's bad about it?
If these moves had not been done, what would have Ratto and his peers said at the mid-season point when the Athletics would sure have looked unable to win the Western Division? "They should have profited from the market during the offseason to....". A market like Oakland calls for a GM like Beane who will strike at the right time and count on the farm system to contend. Their system was empty and they are filing it again.
People seem to forget that this franchise posted a record above .500 for eight straight seasons since 1999, with 2007 marking a stop to that incredible run that also saw the team win 4 division titles and a wild card pass.
Here's Baseball America's take on the trade.
The Chicago Tribune covers the trade. The San Francisco Chronicle covers the trade.
Jay Mariotti thinks Beane got the best of Williams again.
- The St-Louis Cardinals inked RHP Matt Clement to a one-year deal worth 1.5 M$ (plus incentives that can reach 5.25 M$) with a 2009 club option.
As I mentioned previously, this is the deal the Jays should have made, with their pitching coach, Brad Arnsberg, a former mentor of the 33-year-old when he was with the Florida Marlins.
I like the deal (not the destination) for its incentives and the fact that Dave Duncan will be able to use him as another project and work his magic like he has done in the past (Carpenter and Weaver come to mind). While we can't expect him to throw like he did with Florida, his 4.47 career ERA should be a good benchmark of what to expect from the right-hander.
His best season came in Chicago in 2003, when he struck out 215 batters in 205 IP and allowed only 162 hits, for a healthy 3.60 ERA (no pun intended...or maybe so...)
- Catch a preview of the '60 Minutes' appearance by Roger Clemens.
From the NY Times: 'What Did Pitcher Know and When Didn't He Know It?'
- Three MiLB.com writers offer their thoughts on the 2008 baseball season, from A to Z.
The site also offers great content with this 'Houma Houdini' piece and another installment of 'Minoring in Business'.
- MLB.com is beginning its annual 'Around the Horn' series. It is available on each club's official websites and analyzes each position. Today, it starts with the catchers.
- J.C. Bradbury writes about the now-famous B12 vitamins.
Debate of the Day: How would you rate Billy Beane's offseason so far? What move do you see in your crystal ball?
You can reach me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com
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Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
by
Dave Rouleau
on Fri 04 Jan 2008 10:45 AM EST | Permanent Link
Comments
Re: Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
Rob Neyer pointed out that there is really no difference between 65 & 75 wins for the A's - or words to that effect - so what the hell.
Keith Law thinks that Williams is deluded if he thinks the White Sox will contend this year - I'm paraphrasing. I wonder if Williams thinks his job is jeopardy if his squad doesn't contend this season. I'm in the minority of opinion on Beane's offseason to this point. Haren & Swisher are extremely good players and more importantly still young, both 27. I think the Haren deal more than the Swisher deal was about quantity over quality. Maybe word came from Wolff to pare payroll until they move into the new stadium in Fremont - if that happens. That's the typical MO in this era, stock your team with prospects who will mature as you move into the new digs and then spend on vets to fill out the squad. I'm not a big Beane fan, I think he's very competent but I don't think he's a genius. He certainly has a big ego, no doubt enlarged in part thanks to Michael Lewis. You look a lot smarter when you have cheap starting pitching the caliber of Zito, Hudson & Mulder ( or the caliber they were when they were A's ). Fun stuff though, Beane has everybody talking. Forgot one thing. I commented here yesterday that is this another signal that the A's won't sign Bonds - rebuilding mode and all of that. I wonder though, if they won't be competitive this season could Bonds provide a much needed gate attraction? There certainly will be little - if any - interest in his services.....his agent says he wants to play... One more thing, I'm not disappointed that Clements isn't a Jay, I know he was rumored to be interested. I have more questions about how he'll recover psychologically from getting hit in the head than the health of his arm. The Jays first 4 look very strong - I believe Marcum & McGowan are the real deal - and I think Burnett will have a great year because he can opt out and cash in huge. Everybody needs a 5th and Chacin, Litsch & Jansenn ( which is a lot dependent on League ) are options as sound as Clement. Keep up the great work Dave. Re: Re: Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
wow...thanks a lot, Pete. I certainly will keep it up...
I agree that McGowan is the real deal, but I think we have to be careful with Marcum. Don't get me wrong here: great presence, incredibly good mechanics that he repeats well and a change-up that's just not fair for hitters. But #3 is his ceiling and he NEEDS to keep his command. Saw what happened last year when he began to unravel (though, to be honest, he was tired and injured)? Lost his focus and was hittable up in the zone, which resulted in a scary amount of home runs. Great pitcher that will give the #4 spot a wonderful push and I truly believe Litsch is capable of handling that 5th spot. But I fear that with the return or Romero, Ryan and League in the bullpen, Janssen (who clearly earned the right to be kept in the majors) will be given the #5 starting job. This should be a great year in Toronto. Thanks for your comment Pete. Re: Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
(reposting this fun fact) FWIW, The Fielding Bible +/- stats this year showed Swisher as +4 in CF, in 481 IP. His arm was about average in terms of preventing advancement bases and getting kills.
I've had a day to digest the Swisher deal, and I think it comes to this: Which side of the trade will have more "market value" in 12 months? Everyone wants to be apocryphal about Williams here in Chicago - noting (much as the allusion to Keith Law did) that the Sox aren't going to contend anyway, so who cares? But look at it another way... Swisher's entering his age-27 season, moving to a park that's played great for power hitters. He hits ~200 fly balls a year... if just 20% of those make it out, he's at 40 HR, and Thome has been over 25% for each of his 2 seasons. If Swisher has that ol' John Benson "Age 27 with experience" boost next year, who knows what could happen? Will his season be park-aided? Sure. But if Kenny tries to trade him, there are still many who won't fully grasp it, if history is any indication. I think the A's have to catch lightning in a bottle to come out ahead in the next 12 months on this deal. And I don't think that's short-sighted of me... I'm just stating that in 12 months, Kenny will have increased his fungible assets. And who wouldn't want to do that? Re: Re: Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
Absolutely. BTW, I don't think this is a bad deal for Williams, not at all even (GREAT analysis about that 20% fly balls, Rob).
But as a Chicago columnist suggested this morning, the farm system takes a big hit and what will happen next year when he wants to add another piece of the puzzle? He'll have to take one from the current roster. On top of that, he will be contending with two incredible rosters - Cleveland and Detroit. As Joe emailed me earlier, we have to be careful with judging the prospects, because many won't make it or not develop as the team hoped. BUT, I think that the peripherals the 2 pitchers currently present can make for healthy predictions. I don't think there's any question that Williams paid a high price, but how high remains to be seen, no doubt about that. Re: Re: Re: Roundup - Clement Signing/Swisher Trade Analysis
Yeah, he will have to take a piece of the major league team next year to make a trade, but ...
If Sweeney continues to look like a 4th OF, and only one of the pitching prospects remains "hot" next year, he'd have to trade that one "hot" prospect next year (perhaps with Sweeney) for something, and he'd be in the same situation, more-or-less. And there's always the possibility that both pitchers will take a step back. The "market" value of a pitcher who's taken a step backward is almost nil, from what I have seen (take O's pitchers Brandon Erbe and Pedro Beato as two examples I was just looking at today - neither was terrible in 2007, but both are relegated to "extras" status now). Time will tell. To be honest, I'd rather have Swisher minus those 3 prospects than be saddled with either Hunter's or Rowand's contract, and be out next year's #1. That may be a backhanded compliment, but hey. :) |
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