"Chatter From the Bleachers" is a new feature for you to enjoy on Baseball Digest Daily.

Every two weeks, you will be able to read the opinions of the BDD staff on various baseball topics.  If you are interested in submitting a question for us, you can contact me at drouleau@baseballdigestdaily.com.


Questions:

1- Who is the best GM in the game right now? Why?

2- Which team will surprise everyone in 2008? Why?


Rob McQuown:

1- I think it's hard to pick against Theo Epstein here, though other GM's have more constraints than he does. While it could be argued that almost none of the Red Sox core talent is home grown, he's been able to get value for value when trading off his young talent. To have some young core players, and also a farm system with many coveted prospects in addition to having two rings in 4 years is a true credit to his ability to sustain a winning environment. As a potential knock on him, none of the team's biggest FA signings from last season were nearly as good as expected with Dice-K going a pedestrian 15-12, 4.40 and Drew and Lugo cratering. But, as with most things, winning overshadowed that fact. It will be interesting to see how Boston does as their two generational” (i.e. among the best in their generation) hitters wind down... Billy Beane sure looked smart when he had some elite players too, though his were in the form of rotation aces.

I think that acknowledging the work of GM's in much more difficult circumstances is appropriate, too. The bar necessarily needs to be set lower for them, and if the NY/LA/Boston teams are Tier I for resources, GM's in Tier II and Tier III could be doing even better work, and not having quite the same success. Among these guys, I think that Dayton Moore has done amazing things since going to KC. It would be easy to ridicule signing Dotel last year, but I think it sent a loud message to the organization that winning is expected (and besides, he was able to trade him off once they were out of contention anyway). In the meantime, he's piled up live arms in the minors, and with as fickle as pitching is, the Royals could have the best stockpile of young arms in a year or two. He identified an unproven manager who was highly regarded, and is giving him a chance to become the face of the team, much as Shapiro did with Wedge back in 2002. Speaking of Shapiro, the Indians spent less money in 2007 than the Royals and led the AL in victories(!) In fairness, if I had to name one non-Tier I GM at this point, it has to be Shapiro, but Moore is certainly in the picture.

2- Well, no team will surprise “everyone”, as there are always fanatics for any team!  But I put my annual $10 longshot bet on the Reds at 50-to-1 odds. All sorts of nonsense is spewed about Dusty Baker by national media, bloggers, SABR folks, etc. And while he certainly deserves some of it, my sense is that most of it is leveled at him due to a) his mind-numbingly idiotic-sounding comments about on-base percentage, which immediately makes him an “enemy” of “enlightened” fans and experts alike, and b) his demeanor, which makes him come across to many as slow and dim-witted. But this is a manager who was among the best ever in September win/loss records when he arrived in Chicago. 2003 didn't hurt him, obviously. From 2004-2006, the team was ravaged by injuries.  And ask Matt Murton (508 PA in 2006, 261 PA in 2007) or Ronny Cedeno (572 and 80) about Dusty's lack of patience with young players. Compared to Lou Piniella, he has the patience of Job!  He'll need that patience in 2008, as he figures out which young Reds can do what. But, he has a bona-fide closer, a rotation including Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, and Volquez, and some very good bats. I certainly don't think they are a "sure thing", and could see the team flopping again.  But the Brewers have been moving in reverse this offseason, Zambrano was pitching like he was injured last year (dropping down on his arm angle a lot, losing the strike zone a lot, etc.), and no other team in the Central is a threat.

I think the Royals and Nats will be under-estimated by many again this year, too. Unlike the 2006 Marlins, I think the surprisingly good seasons these teams had will lead to more growth. Unfortunately for the Royals, they play in the AL Central - but I could see them finishing 3rd and surprising a lot of people.

Jonathan Hale

1- I find this a really tricky question. How do you compare the accomplishments of someone like Epstein with other GM's working with half the payroll? It's like trying to decide who is a more skilled manager, the CEO of a fortune 500 company or the guy who runs the corner store- it takes totally different skills, and success is measured on a different order of magnitude.

But I have a soft spot for those who do more (or as much) with less, so I'm going to say Billy Beane (flipped a coin between him and Kevin Towers), even though I know his popularity is on the wane. The level of success the A's have enjoyed over the last decade with the amount of money they've had on hand is stunning, postseason success or not. Even last year he managed to pull Jack Cust out of thin air and nobody blinked because that is what's expected from him at this point.

2- Predictably, I'll say the Jays. They won't be the most improved team (the Rays and Nats are going to turn their youth movements around) but I think they have a legitimate shot to compete in the AL East and that would surprise a lot of people. They have some legitimate young arms, and the pitching staff quietly got very, very, good (even without B.J. Ryan) from top to bottom in the second half of 2008. They also have the best defense in the Majors, and a bunch of key members of the offense coming back healthy. If they can stay that way and return to their career offensive numbers they jays are a lock to win 90+ games and make things interesting.

Joe Hamrahi

1- In my opinion, Mark Shapiro is the best GM in baseball. He operates in a small market, gets the most bang for his buck, and recognizes the parts of a team that can be shuffled in and out each year (i.e. relievers). Shapiro is also one of the innovative GMs who have taken the initiative when it comes to contract negotiations. He doesn't wait for a player to come within a year or two of free agency, or even arbitration for that matter, to negotiate new deals. Shapiro understands the mental side of the game as well as anyone and promotes programs to support his players on the emotional level as well as the physical.

2- I'm not sure we can categorize this as a surprise, but I really think the Dodgers, who finished 82-80 last year, will seriously contend for the NL West crown. They have a great core group of young players who should only get better in James Loney, Matt Kemp, Russell Martin, Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton, Andre Ethier, and the up and coming Andy LaRoche. They added Andruw Jones to updgrade their centerfield defense and provide much needed power to the lineup. And there's nobody I talk to who doesn't feel that Rafael Furcal will bounce back with a tremendous season this year.
    
Brad Penny and Derek Lowe anchor a solid rotation that also includes Billingsley and should get a boost from the addition of Hiroki Kuroda. Whether or not Jason Schmidt provides any help coming back from surgery is anybody's guess, but I believe the Dodgers feel that anything Schmidt contributes this year is gravy.

And oh yeah, they have that new manager who knows a thing or two about winning championships!

Brandon Heikoop

1- Josh Byrnes of the Arizona Diamondbacks is whom I view as the top front office executive in baseball. Looking through the DBacks roster, one sees that Byrnes inherited one heck of a system. Future stars Jackson, Reynolds, Drew, Upton and Owings all came with this club prior to Byrnes being hired in October of 2005. However, Byrnes has done a solid job of acquiring veterans to compliment the well stocked cupboard he was provided with. With that in mind, 11 of the Diamondbacks current 25 man roster have been players that Byrnes has brought in under his watch; Hudson, Young, Byrnes, Johnson and Davis to name a few.

However, he has also done a quality job bringing in youngsters like Petit and Eveland allowing for the club to let its deep farm system play its way into the majors. Byrnes has also done well to keep the cupboards well stocked in Arizona. That is, despite having the aforementioned 'future stars', the Diamondbacks system ranks as the 15th best according to Baseball America. And according to John Sickels' top 20, 17 of those players were acquired or drafted since Byrnes took over. Thus, the combination of adding veterans to a young core in order to make them a winner, having a strong and completely rebuilt farm system as well as keeping the budget in line, Josh Byrnes is my pick as baseball's best GM.

2- The club whom I am picking as the biggest surprise is the Tampa Bay Rays (I get to keep my dollar). The Rays are a team built in a similar mold to the Indians, Diamondbacks and Rockies. That is, young and talented. The front office has made a conscious effort into building a deep and experienced bullpen. For the first time in memory, the Rays rotation looks like a strong point, as they have three exciting, young and talented arms in Kazmir, Shields and Garza. In addition to this, the team will have one of the most entertaining spring training battles for the 4th and 5th rotation slots.

Offensively, I look for Upton, Pena and Navarro to continue their development into legitimate stars. Iwamura is a dark horse in my opinion; here is a guy who had an OPS of .877 while in Japan, so a 20-25HR season is not out of the question for this import if he can managed to stay healthy. There is also Evan Longoria, whom I imagine should be able to give the Rays an excellent spark once he finally gets called up-not only offensively, but also with the glove, helping improve last years worst fielding team. So watch out for those Rays, I believe this is the year where they become a legitimate threat in the East and threaten for the wild card. In doing so, it will be interesting to see if the Front Office makes a deal to add a veteran presence.

Geoff Young

1- I'm partial to Kevin Towers because of his consistent ability to turn nothing into something (Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka for Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young; Doug Mirabelli for Josh Bard, Cla Meredith, and cash; Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson for Heath Bell; etc.). That said, the Red Sox have won two World Championships in four years. Obviously they enjoy certain advantages that not every team can duplicate, but Theo Epstein deserves a lot of credit for what he's accomplished in Boston. I'd also keep a close eye on Josh Byrnes in Arizona. Byrnes worked under Epstein and so far has given every indication that he knows exactly what he's doing. I like what Mark Shapiro has done in Cleveland as well.

2- Which team will surprise everyone in 2008? Why? I would give anything to say the Padres, but I think the Diamondbacks will surprise folks by demonstrating that 2007 wasn't a fluke. They may have outperformed their Pythagorean, but the entire offense also underperformed, which probably won't happen again given how young and talented the kids in that lineup are. Maybe the addition of Dan Haren means they won't be as much of a surprise, but then again, after the Johan Santana trade, most folks seem to be focusing on the Mets in the National League.

Eric SanInocencio

1- Even as it pains me to say this as Yankee fan, I have to choose Theo Epstein. He has transformed how wealthy franchises run, supplementing a dominant major league squad with a bottomless pool of prospects. He has some blemishes (Julio Lugo, JD Drew) just like every GM, but if you look at the total package, his work has separated the Red Sox from the pack. He's won two championships since 2004, and due to his hard work in the draft is setup to be a major factor in the American League for the next five years. Also, he hasn't been afraid to move prospects or proven players if he spots a deficiency in his squad. The Nomar Garciaparra and Josh Beckett trades have brought back major dividends, and were against the rational thinking when they occurred. There is no doubt Theo is aided by the large pockets of his ownership, but he's put that money to work, making the Boston Red Sox the premier franchise in the major leagues right now.

2- Can the Los Angeles Dodgers be called a surprise? For a big market team, they've flown under the radar due to some bad moves the past few years. They hired a good manager (Joe Torre), brought in a hungry free agent CF that is great defensively, and have finally learned to let their young superstars play. After wasting money on the Luis Gonzalez's and Juan Pierre's of the world, they seem content on letting Matt Kemp and James Loney suit up everyday. Also, the pipeline is far from bare, with some major prospects on the way that can add more punch to what has been a powerless lineup for far too long.

The possible infusion of Andy LaRoche at third base to go with full seasons from Kemp and Loney should add much needed pop to the order. On the hill they are primed for success as well. Adding Kuroda to a staff that already boasts Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley will make it deep and strong. Not to mention, if they can get anything out of Jason Schmidt, you are taking about a rotation that can be one of the best in the National League. The infighting that happened last year won't fly with Torre, whose clubhouse management was the key ingredient to his New York success.

Craig Brown

1- For best GM, I'd have to tip my cap in the direction of Dave Dombrowski in Detroit.  The man knows how to build a winner.  First in Montreal where he laid the foundation for the Expos teams of the early 1990's to the Florida Marlins and their World Series title in 1997 and now with the Tigers.  When you consider where the Tigers were when he took over in Detroit, such a quick turn-around boggles the mind - at all levels of the organization.  He inherited a poor minor league system and set about rebuilding the scouting and player development staff. 

In his first draft with the team in 2002, the Tigers snagged Curtis Granderson in the third round and Joel Zumaya in the 11th - two of the key players in the Detroit rebirth.  Of course, he's now using that depth in the minor league level to shore up the holes in his major league team.  This winter alone, I was blown away by deals where he moved the organizations top prospects in exchange for Edgar Renteria, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.  Those are gutsy moves that in the short term, prop this team up for another run at the Series.

2-Nobody pays much attention to Tampa - and for good reason.  But for some reason I'm drawn to them, like a moth to a flame to borrow a cliche.  With Kazmir, Shields and Garza, that gives them a solid front three and the minors have some pretty good pitching talent in David Price and Jeff Niemann in the wings.  And I like their lineup, too.  Crawford, Upton and Baldelli (stay healthy, Rocco!) in the outfield and I think their infield is much improved with Iwamura at second and Bartlett at short. 

Hopefully we'll see Longoria do well enough in spring training to make the team at 3B.  I'm not going to do anything crazy and say this team is going to win the East or even compete for the wild card.  But this is a team that has never won more than 70 games in their 10 years of existence.  Is .500 a possibility?  It would be a 15 game improvement over last season, but I think they'll come close.

Dave Rouleau

1- A few months ago, it might not have been my definitive choice, but now it is: Billy Beane.  I explain:

Seeing the team struggle last year after many injuries and a depleted farm system, I was wondering what course of actions was left for this executive.  His handling of the off-season was spectacular to me: state the truth and don't be afraid of bold moves, like the trade that sent Swisher to Chicago.

Some people don't agree with this deal and I understand why.  However, there is a reason why the trade was made and it was not "hey, let's take a chance here".  With all the money involved and the doubts that surround prospects, you can be sure there is something to be found in the young kids he has brought into the Oakland organization.

He was right when he said that it was not enough to put an average squad on the field and hope for the best.  The good GMs anticipate what will happen and make decisions before anybody else has any idea what's going on.  The franchise will more than likely play in another stadium (and city) in the near future, so to be able to reap the rewards of the excitement surrounding there new environment, they have to be able to sell a good product to fans and I think that this rebuilding phase will be quick and prolonged. 

2- The Tampa Bay Rays have to be my choice here.  Not only are they loaded in talent, but are now at a point where they are acting like a 'real contender'.  Signing Percival was a good move in that he might actually perform well if we only go by the impressive numbers he put up in St-Louis last season (40 IP, 24 H, 8 ER, 3 HR, 10 BB, 36 K, 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and completely dominating right-handed batters with .136 avg, .185 OBP) and he could be a good veteran presence for all the young pitchers entering the majors through this organization.

We will see the young Upton improve upon his numbers from last year and more importantly, see the infield finally come together.  According to many experts, Longoria's bat is ready for the big show, giving the Rays another weapon in the middle of the lineup.  With Bartlett handling the shortstop duties, this past of the field will now become stable and give the pitchers confidence in throwing strikes, knowing that a ball hit doesn't mean a ball in safe territory any more. 

You also have to love the 1-2-3 punch of the starting rotation, with Kazmir, Shields and Garza.  Their pitching staff was already the number one in strikeouts in the AL last season, but the fourth in walks allowed, so Reyes, Percival and Wheeler will need to anchor the 7th, 8th and 9th inning in order for this team to realize its potential.

This team is young, strong and cheap. It's time baseball fans take them seriously.

Martin Gandy

1- I would have to pick Brian Cashman of the Yankees. Not only has he held onto the job for a lot longer than most, but he's done it in the most pressure packed media market with the most overbearing and meddlesome ownership in baseball. Through the years he's changed the attitude of the Yankees system from one that develops talent to be traded to a system that once again develops talent with the intention of that talent putting on a Yankees uniform and being a major contributor. Yes, he also has the most money with which to build a team, but with high priced athletes usually comes high-end egos. With his guidance, the Yankees have started to spend their money much wiser than they have in the past.

2- The Cincinnati Reds will surprise people in 2008. They still have that relentless offense and now they're getting better pitching. Their bullpen has plenty of experienced and as much as I hate to say it, Dusty Baker is the right fit for that team. The NL Central is a deep division, but no team will blow your socks off. If the Reds can stay close until the end and their old guys can stay healthy, they have a chance to come on strong at the end of the year as the team begins to gel.