New Article: "Harry Frazee, Ban Johnson and the Feud That Nearly Destroyed the American League" - Excerpt #2, by Michael Lynch
New Series: The Baseball Research Project - Baseball Historians and HRs, by Dave Rouleau
Foundation of Solid Rock(ies), by Rob McQuown
Beyond the Diamond: February 10, 2008, by Pete Toms
Family Trees, by Geoff Young
The Return of Facts...Johan-Style, by Craig Brown
Detailed Pitch Analysis: Part II - The Curve Ball, by Jonathan Hale
Round 2: The Roger Clemens Saga Continues, by Gordon Berger
The Perfect Organization, by Eric SanInocencio
Out of the Spolight, by Dave Rouleau
The Bloggers Roundtable - Cincinnati Reds (the Cleveland Indians are the next in line)
- Come back often to be sure not to miss Matt Laporta's player journals!
- You can hear the latest edition of the BDD Radio Show with Eric Walker, where he talks about PEDs and the effect they have on stats.
All Baseball Transactions Tuesday
- Andy Pettitte has reportedly told congressional investigators in his deposition last week that he and Roger Clemens had a conversation ten years ago where Clemens revealed to the left-handed pitcher that he admitted using human-growth hormones.
Pettitte disclosed the conversation to the congressional committee holding Wednesday's hearings on drug use in baseball, a person familiar with the affidavit said. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the document had not been made public.
According to the person familiar with the affidavit, who said it was signed Friday night, Pettitte also said Clemens backtracked when the subject of HGH came up again in conversation in 2005, before the same House committee held the first hearing on steroids in baseball.
Pettitte said in the affidavit that he asked Clemens in 2005 what he would do if asked by the media about HGH, given his admission years earlier. According to the account told to the AP, the affidavit said Clemens responded by saying Pettitte misunderstood the previous exchange in 1999 or 2000 and that, in fact, Clemens had been talking about HGH use by his wife in the original conversation.
"We don't know what Andy said," Clemens' lead lawyer, Rusty Hardin, said in a statement e-mailed to the AP by his spokesman. "We look forward to hearing tomorrow."
- Bud Selig says a third party for drug testing is not necessary. Sure, it's worked so well from the beginning, why change it? @#$%&$%*?
Bud Selig says Major League Baseball doesn't need to turn its drug testing over to a third party but should increase the amount of independence of the doctor who currently runs it.
Dr. Bryan Smith, MLB's independent program administrator, is best suited to run the program because he understands baseball's intricacies, Selig said Tuesday prior to a banquet for fans of the Notre Dame baseball team.
"Every sport has different nuances," Selig said. "Comparing our sport to Olympics sometimes in terms of penalties is just not fair because we play every day, every year. But we need to work on independence and transparency. There's no question about that."
The Mitchell report recommended that baseball increase independence and transparency.
"If it doesn't work, I'm so anxious to solve the problem that I won't rule anything out at this point," Selig said.
Players and owners have had a series of meetings on the Mitchell report, which includes recommendations subject to collective bargaining. WADA wants baseball to get out of the drug-testing business and turn the sport's program to outsiders.
- Guys, it would not be fair if I did not link you to the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue...online! You are welcome.
- OF Kevin Mench has signed a minor league contract with his former team, the Texas Rangers, the same team that drafted him in 1999. He has a chance to earn a roster spot as a bench player out of Spring Training, after he was in a platoon situation in Milwaukee in 2007.
Mench turned 30 in January and definitively has some pop in his bat, but unfortunately, right-handed pitchers dominate the righty and he is forced to fight his way into the lineup each year. Lefties don't have the same luxury against him, posting a .924 OPS against them in his career.
- RH starter Livan Hernandez was signed by the Minnesota Twins yesterday and will be inserted into a rotation heavy in young inexperienced hurlers (Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn) and also looked upon to replace the 200 innings Johan Santana left behind when he was traded to the NY Mets two weeks ago. The deal is worth $5 M for one year, but could increase by $2 M in performance bonuses.
In his 12-year career, the right-handed pitcher has thrown nine seasons of 200 or more innings, plus another one where he three 199. He attacks hitters with all four standard pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change - in order of frequency), with a fastball that tops out in the high-80s.
He is not considered very effective anymore, with righties and lefties posting an OPS of over .850 against him and he doesn't induce as much ground balls as he used to (47% career average), with 40% of batted balls on the ground last season.
He will be trusted to eat up innings and be a stabilizing presence among a young pitching staff that will look to him for advice and guidance. Good move by the Twins.
- John Brattain's piece, "Who Wants to Subsidize a Billionaire?"
As you know, the Twins are finally to receive a new stadium largely financed by taxes. Let's break down what has happened with the Twins since the strike of 1994-1995:
* Revenue sharing brought into the game, Twins receive increasing amounts of it since post-strike collective bargaining agreements were ratified. The club has easily received this subsidy to the tune of nine digits.
* New stadium will bring massive new revenue streams to the Twins in the form of luxury suites, premium seating and other amenities.
* In addition, the Twins will receive another windfall since the new stadium will allow the team to charge more for everything from tickets to hot dogs since demand for tickets will result in an increase in price.
* Due to the new moneymaking potential of the stadium, the value of the Minnesota Twins will increase substantially.
* Between revenue sharing, public money devoted to the new park, and increase in franchise value Carl Pohlad may well be close to a billion dollars better off than he was not long ago.
- Josh Kalk impresses again with a pitcher similarity score.
- Remember my link to a Murray Chass article yesterday about some autograph seekers ? Well, guess what, they may have broken federal law.
- John Sickels looks into the future of Mark Reynolds.
They seem a bit down on him with the projections and though his minor league career averages are not something that impresses a lot of people (.280/.355/.525), I agree with them that pitchers will adjust to him, but having followed his career, he is quite capable of making adjustments at the plate. His 366 at-bats last season exposed him to a lot of pitchers and he still put up a 110 OPS+ at the age of 23.
Given his almost similar numbers against both righties and lefties, I think the projections below are on the pessimistic side.
I think the Bellhorn comp still holds, though Reynolds should be slightly better and has an advantage in that he's already established in the majors at age 23 and Bellhorn didn't break through until he was 27. Reynolds should continue to produce good power numbers, but I expect his batting average will take a hit this year and in the long run I think he's more of a .240-.250 hitter most seasons than a .275-.280 one. Reynolds is still pretty young, and if he can improve his plate discipline a bit more, he could exceed that. He has shown flashes of being able to improve his strike zone judgment.
Projections for 2008 vary:
Ron Shandler: .260/.325/.467
Bill James: .294/.367/.537
ZIPS: .274/.339/.481
Shandler is the pessimist, James the optimist, ZIPS in the middle. I'm on Shandler's side and even a bit lower at .258/.321/.455, as I think the pitchers are going to adjust to him this year and cut out some of his batting average and OBP, though he'll crush enough mistakes to keep the SLG respectable.
Pettitte disclosed the conversation to the congressional committee holding Wednesday's hearings on drug use in baseball, a person familiar with the affidavit said. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the document had not been made public.
According to the person familiar with the affidavit, who said it was signed Friday night, Pettitte also said Clemens backtracked when the subject of HGH came up again in conversation in 2005, before the same House committee held the first hearing on steroids in baseball.
Pettitte said in the affidavit that he asked Clemens in 2005 what he would do if asked by the media about HGH, given his admission years earlier. According to the account told to the AP, the affidavit said Clemens responded by saying Pettitte misunderstood the previous exchange in 1999 or 2000 and that, in fact, Clemens had been talking about HGH use by his wife in the original conversation.
"We don't know what Andy said," Clemens' lead lawyer, Rusty Hardin, said in a statement e-mailed to the AP by his spokesman. "We look forward to hearing tomorrow."
- Bud Selig says a third party for drug testing is not necessary. Sure, it's worked so well from the beginning, why change it? @#$%&$%*?
Bud Selig says Major League Baseball doesn't need to turn its drug testing over to a third party but should increase the amount of independence of the doctor who currently runs it.
Dr. Bryan Smith, MLB's independent program administrator, is best suited to run the program because he understands baseball's intricacies, Selig said Tuesday prior to a banquet for fans of the Notre Dame baseball team.
"Every sport has different nuances," Selig said. "Comparing our sport to Olympics sometimes in terms of penalties is just not fair because we play every day, every year. But we need to work on independence and transparency. There's no question about that."
The Mitchell report recommended that baseball increase independence and transparency.
"If it doesn't work, I'm so anxious to solve the problem that I won't rule anything out at this point," Selig said.
Players and owners have had a series of meetings on the Mitchell report, which includes recommendations subject to collective bargaining. WADA wants baseball to get out of the drug-testing business and turn the sport's program to outsiders.
- Guys, it would not be fair if I did not link you to the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue...online! You are welcome.
- OF Kevin Mench has signed a minor league contract with his former team, the Texas Rangers, the same team that drafted him in 1999. He has a chance to earn a roster spot as a bench player out of Spring Training, after he was in a platoon situation in Milwaukee in 2007.
Mench turned 30 in January and definitively has some pop in his bat, but unfortunately, right-handed pitchers dominate the righty and he is forced to fight his way into the lineup each year. Lefties don't have the same luxury against him, posting a .924 OPS against them in his career.
- RH starter Livan Hernandez was signed by the Minnesota Twins yesterday and will be inserted into a rotation heavy in young inexperienced hurlers (Scott Baker, Boof Bonser, Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn) and also looked upon to replace the 200 innings Johan Santana left behind when he was traded to the NY Mets two weeks ago. The deal is worth $5 M for one year, but could increase by $2 M in performance bonuses.
In his 12-year career, the right-handed pitcher has thrown nine seasons of 200 or more innings, plus another one where he three 199. He attacks hitters with all four standard pitches (fastball, slider, curve, change - in order of frequency), with a fastball that tops out in the high-80s.
He is not considered very effective anymore, with righties and lefties posting an OPS of over .850 against him and he doesn't induce as much ground balls as he used to (47% career average), with 40% of batted balls on the ground last season.
He will be trusted to eat up innings and be a stabilizing presence among a young pitching staff that will look to him for advice and guidance. Good move by the Twins.
- John Brattain's piece, "Who Wants to Subsidize a Billionaire?"
As you know, the Twins are finally to receive a new stadium largely financed by taxes. Let's break down what has happened with the Twins since the strike of 1994-1995:
* Revenue sharing brought into the game, Twins receive increasing amounts of it since post-strike collective bargaining agreements were ratified. The club has easily received this subsidy to the tune of nine digits.
* New stadium will bring massive new revenue streams to the Twins in the form of luxury suites, premium seating and other amenities.
* In addition, the Twins will receive another windfall since the new stadium will allow the team to charge more for everything from tickets to hot dogs since demand for tickets will result in an increase in price.
* Due to the new moneymaking potential of the stadium, the value of the Minnesota Twins will increase substantially.
* Between revenue sharing, public money devoted to the new park, and increase in franchise value Carl Pohlad may well be close to a billion dollars better off than he was not long ago.
- Josh Kalk impresses again with a pitcher similarity score.
- Remember my link to a Murray Chass article yesterday about some autograph seekers ? Well, guess what, they may have broken federal law.
- John Sickels looks into the future of Mark Reynolds.
They seem a bit down on him with the projections and though his minor league career averages are not something that impresses a lot of people (.280/.355/.525), I agree with them that pitchers will adjust to him, but having followed his career, he is quite capable of making adjustments at the plate. His 366 at-bats last season exposed him to a lot of pitchers and he still put up a 110 OPS+ at the age of 23.
Given his almost similar numbers against both righties and lefties, I think the projections below are on the pessimistic side.
I think the Bellhorn comp still holds, though Reynolds should be slightly better and has an advantage in that he's already established in the majors at age 23 and Bellhorn didn't break through until he was 27. Reynolds should continue to produce good power numbers, but I expect his batting average will take a hit this year and in the long run I think he's more of a .240-.250 hitter most seasons than a .275-.280 one. Reynolds is still pretty young, and if he can improve his plate discipline a bit more, he could exceed that. He has shown flashes of being able to improve his strike zone judgment.
Projections for 2008 vary:
Ron Shandler: .260/.325/.467
Bill James: .294/.367/.537
ZIPS: .274/.339/.481
Shandler is the pessimist, James the optimist, ZIPS in the middle. I'm on Shandler's side and even a bit lower at .258/.321/.455, as I think the pitchers are going to adjust to him this year and cut out some of his batting average and OBP, though he'll crush enough mistakes to keep the SLG respectable.