After reading some rumors around the net about the asking price for right-handed starter Joe Blanton, I felt I needed to write a few things about the situation.  While I know all these talks remain rumors, there is an inconceivable offer out there.

The team that seems to be on top of the pile for the services of the 27-year-old is the Cincinnati Reds.  If I follow this correctly, the two trading partners are talking Blanton for RHP Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto plus slugger (and fellow Canadian) Joey Votto.

Ok, is it me or smoking weed or abusing the needle before making a trade is a bad move?  What are they thinking?

Lets look at Blanton for a second:

- He can throw five different pitches :  four-seam (92 mph) and two-seam fastball (90 mph), slider (82 mph), change (83 mph) and a curve (73 mph).  They are mentioned in order of usage.

- He has pinpoint control of his pitches and has decreased his BB/9 for the last three years, posting a 1.57 BB/9 in 2007 (ranked fourth in the American League).

- He has thrown 625 innings the last three years, for an average of 208.3/year.

- He has a career average of 9.45 H/9 compared to the 8.97 by Dan Haren, his former teammate.

- He has reduced his HR/9 for the last three years and only allowed 16 bombs last season in 230 innings pitched.

- He has smooth mechanics that do not predict serious injuries in the future.

- He maintains a ground ball ratio around 48% every year (with 50% in 2007).

- He ranked 15th in the AL in VORP last season, with 46.3.

- He just signed a $3.7 M contract for 2008 and he is three years removed from free agency.

Blanton is clearly a good pitcher that is just entering his prime and showing improving stats in many categories.  However, he is not a dominating strikeout pitcher and still relies on his defense to do the job to be successful.

He should and will command a considerable asking price, but when you are talking Homer Bailey AND another player, whoever he may be, that's asking a lot.


To offer Votto, a hard-hitting 1B/LF and Homer Bailey would be foolish for the following reasons:

- Homer Bailey's stuff is probably as good or better than anyone in the minor leagues and while this hasn't translated yet into success at the major league level, his ceiling is very high and has the potential to be the ace of any pitching staff in the near future and for a long time; the kid is not even 22 yet.

In 330 innings in the minors, he has allowed only 266 hits and struck out 356 batters.  This is countered by 152 walks, but that's something that can be controlled through hard work with a major league pitching coach.  He can reach the high-90s with his fastball and by taking a bit off of it, he could create more movement have more control over the final destination of his pitches.

There is no doubt that he will succeed, but his inexperience still shows and what worked in the minors (blowing the heater past hitters) will not work in the majors.

He threw 45 innings last season with Cincinnati and allowed only 43 hits and three home runs, but walked as much as he struck out, 28.  He has shown a tendency to leave the ball high in the zone, another aspect that could be corrected by decreasing the velocity and creating movement.

Watch this great video angle.   Here too.

Johnny Cueto is Homer Bailey with controlled velocity and without the walks allowed.  To have him and Bailey atop your rotation is a luxury many GMs would kill for.

He has only allowed 82 walks in 348 IP and struck out 357.  Homers?  24 since he entered pro ball.  He reached AAA last season, throwing 22 innings and walking a mere two batters while putting away 21 on strikes.

His size (5'10'', 192 pounds) may be a cause for durability concerns, with a repertoire that includes a fastball that reaches in the upper-90s with movement, a change-up he recently picked up that ranks as average for now and a good slider.

Even though he hasn't allowed a lot of home runs, he still gives up a lot of long fly balls and will need to come back to what made him very successful in the lower levels, which means pitching down in the zone, because more experienced hitters will tee off his high offerings.

Joey Votto brings contact abilities, plate discipline and power to the plate.  He doesn't project has a 40-home run guy, but 30 bombs, .290-.300 average and with good walk totals every year are all in his future.

His career averages in the minors are .289/.385/.476 and is four home runs shy of 100 bombs in six minor league seasons.  His lefty bat dominates righties, but he fails to repeat that success against southpaws, although his plate discipline stays good.  It is the contact part that seems to elude him.

The main part of this deal is Bailey and him alone would already be too much if you consider all factors.  Yes, that's right, Blanton provides good pitching in 2008, but Bailey's ceiling make him a tough player to hand over to another team.  He still has a lot of years of arbitration in front of him and, depending on how he fares in Spring Training, he could be a central part of a winning team for the storied franchise. 

Why not try and build a deal around Edison Volquez, the RHP they got in the Josh Hamilton trade?  Unless they know something we don't about Bailey and Cueto, they already know their track records and their bodies enough to feel confident in what can happen.  Volquez was groomed in another organization and remains a risk that they could trade along with another prospect or even Votto if the A's can supply a bullpen arm for the Reds.

If you look at it this way, considering they got Josh Hamilton in the Rule V draft, they could get Blanton for a Rule V pick and something to make it worthwhile for Billy Beane.

I wonder what the thinking is on the Reds side, when you have a potential 1-2 punch almost ready for the big show, with a good bat that can play two positions for you, with 2008 as his ETA.  Patience is a virtue and they would be well-advised to keep the three young studs for their future benefit.  Imagine the rotation in two years, with the young guys having more experience:

Harang
Bailey
Cueto
Arroyo
Belisle

Of course, there's Dusty Baker in the picture....hhmmm....is that why Krivsky wants to ship him as far as possible from that manager?