- The Marlins' Chris Volstad, 21, has only allowed one earned run and 10 hits in 11 innings pitched, for a 0.82 ERA.
After tasting Double-A last season (42 IP, 41 H, 10 BB, 25 K, 3.16 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP), the 16th overall pick in 2006 will again see action at this level in 2008, but could reach the majors as a September call-up or if the big league rotation suffers from multiple injuries.
People seem to expect more strikeouts from the right-hander, but his ability to keep the ball down (sinker that reached the low-90s) could really help him compensate for that. He has kept his GB% over 50% since he entered professional baseball.
- Good news for Phillies fans: closer Brad Lidge faced live hitters yesterday morning and felt good. He is scheduled to throw in a game next Wednesday.
Bill James' projections see him as returning close to his career averages (12.44 K/9 and 3.84 BB/9). Now pitching in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park and with a GB% worsening in the last three years, it will be interesting to see how he handles the closer role in 2008.
- Just began to read 'Crazy '08' by Cait Murphy. Only devoured three chapters so far, but it is looking like a winner. She really has done a good job of researching what mattered then and also she sets up the 1908 season by breaking down what happened before and how that year should be best remembered for what it meant for the game of baseball.
Some cool facts:
- From the 6-10 balls used at the beginning of the 20th Century, we are now using upwards of 80 in modern baseball.
- Charles 'Can't Hit His' Waitt (lifetime .150 hitter) was ridiculed in 1875 for wearing a flesh-colored glove with a hole in the back for ventilation. Two years later, Al Spalding wore one to make the innovation more acceptable to traditionalists who could not give credit to a player of Waitt's stature.
B.J. Ryan (sjgardiner/Flickr)
- Man, B.J. Ryan might begin the season in the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen. That's not even 11 months removed from his Tommy John surgery. Just think that in 1974, it took Tommy John 18 months to come back from the procedure. Incredible...
The big left-hander struck out two batters and threw 8 pitches out of 12 for strikes. He used his fastball and slider to quickly put down the Carl Crawford, Elliott Johnson and Willy Aybar.
- Depending on the asking price, I think the Rays should look to acquire Reggie Willits from the Angels, after the rumors that Kenny Lofton might be a possibility (then again, they are only rumors).
With a thinner depth chart in the outfield after trading Delmon Young and losing Rocco Baldelli to a rare condition called mitochondrial metabolic abnormality, which affects how his muscles function and recover after an injury.
With Justin Ruggiano struggling in Spring Training (but a few months after he posted a .309/.378/.502 line in AAA, plus 26 stolen bases), it could be interesting to see the top of the lineup with Willits-Crawford and Pena.
After posting a .391 OBP and stealing 27 bases in 2007 (430 AB), Willits is now stuck behind a crowded outfield in Anaheim (Matthews Jr, Hunter, Anderson, Guerrero) and his price tag will be cheaper in this situation.
- Speaking of the Rays, what about that 10-3 record in ST? I know it doesn't mean anything, but you have to love the way they are developing into an incredible monster.
Jonny Gomes has a healthy .970 OPS going, with a .300 batting average. If he could only dominate right-handed pitchers the way he does lefties, his bat would be in the lineup everyday (he has yet to record 400 AB in a single season). He improved his numbers against them last season, but he still clearly has a tough time getting on base (.302 in 2007 against RHP).
I really hope Evan Longoria earns the third base duties to start the 2008 season. After seeing him in St-Petersburgh earlier this month, he not only can do it with the bat (.33/.467/.750 in Spring training), but the glove also. He was VERY well-received by the home crowd (a two-run triple -opposite field- to get your team ahead in the sixth inning will do that to you).
Another favorite of mine is catcher Dioner Navarro, who is due for a breakout at the age of 24 and more experienced than many players his age after making his debut when he was 20 years old with the New York Yankees. He finished the year strong with an OPS of .799 in August and .870 in September.
When looking at his splits, you can see that the switch hitter tried to hit RHP from the right side of the plate last season and recorded better numbers than when he faced them as a left-handed hitter. Although the sample is small (19 plate appearances), the numbers are interesting: .333/.412/.400.
Rob Neyer weighted in on the possibility of the Rays signing Barry Bonds in the future:
Don't get me wrong. I like the Rays. They might shock the world. I just don't love them. And all the projections don't love them, either. I've got another projection, supposedly derived by playing Diamond Mind Baseball, that's got the Rays winning 80 games. Which to believe?
Well, that's the tough one. If you've actually designed one of the methods -- and especially if you work for a team and you've designed one for your employer -- you have to trust your own (or say you trust your own). I don't have a horse in this race, though, so I bet on all the horses. And all the horses together are telling me the Rays will win 82-84 games this season. Which is why I can't advocate the signing of Bonds (though I might change my mind if the Rays have a great record in June but still have a hole in their lineup).
I suppose I should wonder why the Rays are projected for so many wins by multiple methods. Well, I don't know why. But I suspect it's because, at least in part, they have so many talented, if unproven, young pitchers. But I'm not yet convinced that projections know what to do with such pitchers. I am convinced that you can't count on them for much.
That was in response to a MLBtarderumors.com post about bloggers opinions on the matter:
In an effort to estimate Bonds' on-field impact, we asked Smith to substitute Bonds into the Rays and Mets lineups and rerun his projections. With Bonds in the lineup, both the Mets and the Rays improved by 3 games in the standings and approximately 30 net runs (As an Angels fan, Smith kindly refused to run the same projection for the Mariners or the A's, lest those teams start thinking Bonds is a good idea).
If the Rays are indeed an 87-89 win team (PECOTA projects 88 wins), then Bonds might be a difference-maker. While signing Bonds may indeed be a headache, the difference between 89 wins and 92 wins for the Rays could be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series). And the difference between 92 wins and 95 wins for the Mets could be the difference between the 2007 Mets (one game short) and the 2007 Phillies (one game not short).
My take?
The chance of Bonds finding a new home before the beginning of the 2008 season are slim to none. Marketing issues and his problem with the justice system do not make him an attractive target for any team, on top of the salary that would be involved.
However, if a team reaches the midway point of the season and needs a bat that will make the difference (especially in the American League where he could DH), then Bonds becomes very attractive.
It would be much easier for an organization to sell this acquisition to its fans as a way to reach the World Series at this point in time than it would be now. Could the Rays be a candidate to land the 43-year-old slugger? Abosolutely. Why not? If the Rays pitching staff holds up this season, people are in for a surprise.
With the underrated Jason Bartlett (5th best SS in the majors last season with a +18 rating according to the good people at the Fielding Bible) now handling the hole between second and third base and B.J. Upton now settled in CF, the defense will look as good as new in 2008.
Add the 8th best offense in the majors after the All-Star break last season and you have a deadly mix that could need only one ingredient to get over the bump? Barry Bonds.
Could the Rays really fear a backlash by their fans? Will the fans really hold it against the team to try and win with a Hall of Famer? I hope not and I'm sure it would not be an issue. Somehow, these details tend to be better perceived when you are witnessing a winning and exciting product on the field.
So not only could they add to their chances of making the playoffs (if they sign Bonds after they feel they have a chance to compete), but they could also make money off of it and attract the attention of all baseball fans, who tend to forget pro baseball is played in St-Petersburgh in the later stages of the baseball season.
**By the way, three out of five projection systems predict Bonds would record an OPS over .974 in 2008. Not bad, huh?
Good article by Jayson Stark on closer Troy Percival's decision to sign with the young Rays and they also re-published the picture I mentioned in a Roundup a few weeks ago:
Percival (AP Photo/Al Behrman)
Not so long ago, rookies were treated as nothing more than job-takers by veterans (and maybe still are), but how things have changed in the way teams match up young prospects and more experienced players to make sure they learn things 'the right way' and rub off against players that were successful at the highest level of the game.
A prime example: Maddon purposely assigned Percival to the same workout group as last June's No. 1 draft pick, David Price. So Percival promptly appointed Price to a very prestigious position.
"I told him his job is just to tell me where I'm supposed to be all day, because I'm not looking at the sheet." Percival says. "So I'm like, 'All right, where do I go? Field 2? All right.'"
Fortunately, Price accepted this stellar assignment like the awesome responsibility it clearly was.
"You know, he hasn't been around very long in the game of baseball," Price deadpans. "So he needed me, with no experience, to tell him where to go."
But there was also a method to this madness, naturally. Because Price was required to report to Percival six times a day, it broke down what could have been an impenetrable barrier between the most experienced pitcher on the roster and the least experienced. So Price wound up with a whole different experience in his first big league camp because of it.
"I can talk to him about anything," Price says. "He shows me respect, and I'm 22 years old. So I definitely appreciate that. There are a lot of guys his age, who played in the major leagues as long as he has, who would look at me and say, 'What's he doing in big league camp? What's he done?' But he hasn't been one of those guys. Very nice. Very respectful. Just a real good role model."
Price showed his appreciation the day he was assigned to tell the Rays' Joke of the Day, by making Percival the butt of a joke we can't repeat here. Percival then returned the favor, by pasting a giant photo decal of himself onto Price's BMW as a hood ornament, after Price struck out the side in the first spring training outing of his career.
At another point this spring, Percival read a story in the newspaper comparing the Rays' three upwardly mobile young starting pitchers -- Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza -- to John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Steve Avery at the same stage. By the next day, Percival was walking around in a T-shirt that had all six of those names on it -- just to remind his guys they're "not quite there yet."