Last year, I had some controversial picks in my top 100 (link) which proved to be good picks. These included Troy Tulowitzki at #3 prospect overall, Dustin Pedroia at #18 (didn't make most top-100 lists, including BA's), with Longoria, Upton and Braun higher than most any other list, and Chris Davis in my top 100 (I think he was about 300th in "concensus" type lists entering 2007). And, while I rated Kershaw, Jake McGee, Jeff Niemann, Will Inman, and Kevin Slowey higher than many, and Homer Bailey, Nick Adenhart, and Jeremy Hellickson higher than some, I am unsatisfied with my methodology for selecting pitchers. I'll include some I think are being overlooked at the bottom here, but there is just too much variance in pitching results. Hitters, on the other hand, are fairly predictable in their development, and here are my top 50 for this year. I trust my MLP numbers perhaps more than I should, and ascribe huge value to up-the-middle defenders with good gloves, as I believe these guys are rare and necessary.
1. Colby Rasmus, cf, StL (#23 overall [including pitchers] in 2007) - You won't see him #1 elsewhere, and this isn't a contrarian pick. He comes out atop the MLP list , and also plays a capable CF. Is he really going to match his MLP of .300/.402/.612 (as a typical prime-years season)? Or his 2-year MLP of .301/.397/.572? As a Cubs fan, the mere thought sends a chill down my spine, and I've never so hoped that my system is wrong.
2. Jay Bruce, rf, Cin (#5 in 2007) - I have a predilection toward lefty hitters from my years of playing Strat-O-Matic, but Eva's "brother" is more like a "2a" than a "3", but I rated Bruce ahead of him anyway. Everything you've read about Bruce is true... if he's not a major star by 2010, I'll be shocked.
3. Evan Longoria, 3b, TB (#7) - It's hard to start putting a guy into the Hall of Fame before he's even debuted, but I do hope that Tampa Bay's penny pinching doesn't cost him too many career stats. Seems to have the make up of a star, as well as all the talent he'll need. Expect him to be A-Rod's successor in New York after six years of tormenting the Yankees.
4. Jeff Clement, c?, Sea (#55) - Who knows if he'll stick at catcher, but the mere chance of it happening gets him rated this highly. If he moves to 1b, he should hit like Carlos Delgado. That would drop him slightly on this list, but not too far, obviously.
5. Hank Conger, c, LAA - Another "if he can stay at catcher" rating... knock him down a few if not.
6. Andy LaRoche, 3b, LA - Though reviews of his defense are mixed, I'll assume he'll at least be able to be an average defensive 3b. The injury hurts his standing this year, but he should be at Mike Lowell-type hitter, which is pretty good, as he's shown since escaping Florida.
7. Desmond Jennings, cf, TB
8. Daric Barton, 1b, Oak (#35) - The fact that he's a first baseman, and not even a good one (yet?) hurts him, but for his minor-league career, his MLP is .287/.417/.464, and a guy who gets on base 42% of the time helps put a lot of runs on the board.
9. Nick Weglarz, rf, Cle - Big power source, will have to overcome K's, but he should. Geoff Jenkins downside with the bat, and that's pretty good.
10. Josh Reddick, rf, Bos - What does this guy need to do to get respect? MLP shows .298/.359/.520, and he had 19 outfield kills in 2007. Garrett Anderson with a cannon arm?
11. Chris Marrero, 1b, Was – Kudos to Joe Hamrahi, who rated him #53 last year!
12. Wladimir Balentien, of, Sea - Sometimes, the big K guys can cut down their swings without losing pop. If 2007 is any indication, Balentien projects as a .281/.368/.532 slugger in his prime, though that's in a neutral park and Safeco will dampen that power quite a bit.. Not quite Adam Jones, but still plenty good.
13. Jared Goedert, 3b, Cle - Another Indians "stealth" prospect, much of Goedert's value is with his glove, though he should hit enough to be a #5 hitter. Andy Marte better step up his game if he wants a career in Cleveland.
14. Chris Davis, 1b, Tex (#96 in 2007) - The strikeouts are worrisome, but the power is amazing.
15. Stephen Pearce, 1b/of, Pit
16. Jed Lowrie, ss?, Bos - It's so hard to rate this guy. Taken as a "body of work", his MLP is .264/.368/.418, ho-hum. But his 2007 was much better, coming out at .281/.384/.472, which is awesome for a shortstop, and very very good, even if he cannot stick at ss, and hast to move to 2b (or even 3b).
17. Austin Jackson, cf, NYA - Getting compared to Devon White and Gary Pettis on defense vaults him up the charts. Won't win an MVP award, but with that sort of defense, he should be an impact player.
18. Matt Wieters, c, Bal
19. Mike Moustakas, ss?, KC
20. Jason Heyward, rf, Atl - Probably deserves to be higher, but I'm always a bit conservative until a player has amassed more pro stats. Could very well be the #1 hitting prospect next year.
21. Josh Donaldson, c, ChN
22. Chris Carter (N/R) - 1b - Oak
23. Matt LaPorta, lf, Mil – Defense and K's keep him from being elite, but he's still going to be a force with the bat. And he's a BDD writer!
23. Carlos Gomez, cf, Min – The opposite of LaPorta, Gomez won't wow anyone in the batter's box, but his game-changing speed and defense will make his mid-level batting stats play up a lot, as Johnny Damon did when he was younger.
24. Ryan Royster, of, TB
25. Chase Headley, 3b, SD – playing a very deep third-base this year, in fact all the way out in LF. As a third-baseman, he'd rank several slots higher. Could wind up with a career like Bobby Bonilla's.
26. Geovany Soto, c, ChN – of course, there's a wide range of outcomes for someone with such divergent performance levels in his past. I see him falling somewhere between Ramon Hernandez and Javy Lopez as a player, which is good-to-great. 2007 will go a long way in determining where on that spectrum he ends up.
27. Brandon Wood, ss?, LAA (#19 in 2007) - His MLPs have degenerated into Russell Branyan territory, .236/.323/.475 with a 30% K-rate. Ugh.
28. Johnny Whittleman, 1b, Tex
29. Kyle Blanks, 1b, SD
30. Reid Fronk, of, TB
31. Cameron Maybin, cf, Fla (#25 in 2007) - too many K's.
32. Matt Sweeney, 1b, LAA (#95 in 2007)
33. Travis Snider, of?, Tor (#60 in 2007)
34. Matt Antonelli, 2b, SD (#98 in 2007)
35. Chris Nelson, ss, Col - He's back! This rating is based on staying at shortstop, which obviously would need to involve a trade.
36. Jordan Schafer, cf, Atl
37. Corey Brown, cf, Oak
38. Reid Brignac, ss, TB (#36 in 2007)
39. Eric Campbell, 3b, Atl (#20 in 2007)
40. Eric Duncan, 1b, NYA (#38 in 2007)
41. Chris Pettit, of, LAA (#110 in 2007, but unlisted)
42. Pablo Sandoval, c, SF
43. Tony Thomas, 2b, ChN
44. Ian Stewart, 3b, Col (#29 in 2007) - Career MLP .268/.358/.484, but downward trend is scary.
45. Lars Anderson, 1b, Bos
46. Nick Evans, 1b, NYN (#105 in 2007, but unlisted)
47. Logan Morrison, 1b, Fla
48. Carlos Gonzalez, of, Oak (#11 in 2007)
49. Tyler Flowers, c?, Atl
50. Chad Tracy, c?, Tex – BA shows him as the top LF prospect in the Texas system. A better hitter than the surface stats suggest.
(51.) Damon Sublett, 2b, NYA
(52.) Neil Walker, 3b, Pit (#62 in 2007)
Ranking “The F-Bomb”, Kosuke Fukudome, is difficult at best. Since a team really only gets a discount on a player for the first 6 years of their career as a minor-leaguer, he should produce as much as the first 6 years of most of these players. But then again, he's already making “market value”. Given his great defense, I'd probably put him #7. He could hit almost as well as Daric Barton, and play some great defense in RF.
As promised, here are some good starting pitchers, ranked in order that I like them (caveats about pitcher projection apply):
-
Joba
-
Buchholz
-
Kershaw
-
McGee
-
Fautino De Los Santos
-
Ian Kennedy
-
Trevor Cahill
-
Gio Gonzalez
-
Max Scherzer
-
Kevin Whelan
-
Tyler Robertson
-
Cole Rohrbough
-
Danny Duffy
-
Will Inman
-
Wade Davis
-
Brett Cecil
-
Johnny Cueto
-
Adam Miller
-
Mike McCardell
-
Aaron Poreda
Obviously, some other guys – notably David Price – would be on this list if going by scouting reports. But the names above come out very well using MLPs, and are worth thinking about if you're thinking about top pitchers in the minors.