Brandon Funston at Yahoo Sports has a
Big(ger)
Board of draft picks, where he's conveniently compiled some
rankings from various sources into one table and added his rankings
and commentary. It's a fun read for Rotisserie players, to be
honest. I'm not ambitious enough to redo an entire top 100 list, but
I have some snipes to make about players going well above and below
the values they are going to earn in 2008.
Over-rated!
#5 Chase Utley. Hear me out. In a small league, or with small roster sizes (such as a standard Yahoo League), it's hard to argue with him as a top-10 pick. But durability is key for a roto-stud, and he's not particularly durable, and plays a position which sees players nicked up a lot. Also, two things are going to reduce his 2008 value, from his great 2007 season – a) his batting average won't be .332. It will come back down to near his career norm (still a fine .300, but that's a BIG difference), and b) Jimmy Rollins won't have another “career-best” season in front of him, reducing Utley's RBI chances (and times batting with a pitcher paying attention to Rollins, though the value of that is debatable). In a bigger league (even 10 teams mixed with 25-man rosters), he needs to be compared to “hitters” as a whole, not just second-basemen, and he's not quite in the top tier offensively.
#12 Albert Pujols. Sure, this is just wishful Cubs fan thinking, right? Could be. But look at this surrounding cast. And consider the “cast” that Albert will be wearing if/when he undergoes the surgery he's supposed to need. This isn't the Eckstein/Duncan/Pujols/Edmonds/Rolan juggernaut any more, and unless IBB's are a category for you, Albert's going to again be just another above-average first baseman in 2008, and he might miss a big chunk of the season with the injury.
#14 Alfonso Soriano. It's nuts to take him this high... his leg is still bothering him, so he's a 15-SB slugger type batting leadoff, instead of the former 40-SB threat he was. Think Carlos Lee without the RBI's.
#40 Gary Sheffield. Sure, this is a nice, trendy pick for people who go gaga over the Tiggers this year. But Gary's going to be 39, can be expected to miss a lot of time of the course of a season, and before Barry Bonds, players could usually be expected to fall off a cliff around age 39. From Prospectus, his #1 through #3 comparisons are Dwight Evans, Moises Alou, and Brian Downing. Evans slugged under .400 at age 39, and then hung it up. Alou's been a half-time player, albeit a great one when he's playing. Downing hit very well at ages 39-41, but never got more than 407 AB (age 40). Baseball Reference shows his top 2 similar players are Fred McGriff and Reggie Jackson, and Reggie's .252-27-85 season at age 39 is the only tolerable season either had after age 38.
#79 Adrian Gonzalez. Wow! I simply cannot believe he's getting taken this highly... maybe it's the “age 27 with experience” maxim that John Benson popularized (even though he'll only be 26). I had thought this guy was one of the game's most underrated players, but I guess not. I wouldn't take a first baseman in San Diego in the top 100. Sure, he could go .300/30/100, and there's not much downside, but first base is such a strong position, that it's better to wait and take someone a little worse or more risky a couple rounds later. The 0 SB and the chance that he won't get that many runs and RBIs (due to the ballpark), make him a lousy roto pick until later.
Under-rated!
#13 Johan Santana. Johan and 4 stiffs can keep you in competition in 4 pitching categories. He has to be under consideration for the very first pick, even if you eventually decide that Hanley or A-Rod is a better play. I don't totally buy that the NL is significantly easier, but going to a good defensive team in a nice pitcher's park, and avoiding the DH (guys like Pronk, Sheffield, Thome, and Billy Butler in the AL Central) will be a nice boon.
#30 Erik Bedard. This is one I'm not quite so excited about as Johan, because he won't have Leo Mazzone around. But he's escaping the AL East with the Red Sox and Yanks offenses, and Toronto's lefty-killing machine as well. Seattle's a great ballpark for him, and the left side of the infield is comprised of very slick fielders in Beltre and YuBet.
#56 Corey Hart. Homers, Steals, Batting Average, RBIs (he'll be batting behind Fielder and Braun – expect big RBI totals). What else is Rotisserie about, anyway? (He'll get plenty of runs, too, though not as exceptional as the other 4 categories.) Overlooked somewhat due to not playing full time at the start of last year. Chris Young at #62 sort of falls into the same category, but is a bit riskier, and may lead off, which will reduce his RBIs a lot.
#95 Nick Swisher. Sure, he looks like a mini Adam Dunn from his time in Oakland, but expect the batting average to go up significantly as more balls leave US Cellular Field, and fewer fouls are caught. Also, that lineup should be considerably better this season, meaning lots of runs and RBI for him. Playing two positions in a nice side benefit.
BUBBLE. Matt Capps. Why would anyone rather have Jose Valverde than Matt Capps? The best pitchers to have play for good defensive teams in tough parks in which to hit - check, and check. The best closers play for teams around .500 in pitcher's parks, since they play more close games – check and check. The best pitchers also strike out hitters and don't walk many – check and check. Capps has a CAREER WHIP of 1.09. His ERA last year was 2.28.
UNRANKED. Joakim Soria. I wonder sometimes if people have seen these guys pitch sometimes! Closers are like running backs... if you cannot get the absolutely dominant ones, the next best group are the talented guys who just got the role, not the “proven” aging guys. Those are the ones who lose the job to the next round of young, talented guys. Soria forced his way into the role in 2007, and has filthy stuff. The Royals – like the Pirates - should be a near-.500 team in a pitcher's park. Soria walks a few more than Capps (his curve is unreal, but harder to control than a fastball), but he also strikes out more.
In general, roto knowledge has gotten very good lately, and it's now more possible than ever to really know little about the ballplayers and still do extremely well in rotisserie. But, sometimes guys like the ones here get overvalued for whatever reason, or else slip through the cracks of even the expert players. Have fun, and good luck drafting!
P.S. Some other fantasy references:
An article I did this week at Fantasy Baseball Generals.
Last year's spring fantasy preview NL East.
Last year's spring fantasy preview NL Central.
Last year's spring fantasy preview NL West.
Last year's spring fantasy preview AL East.
Last year's spring fantasy preview AL Central.
Last year's spring fantasy preview AL West.