Baseball Digest Daily :: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

With the 2008 season opener upon us I figured it would be as good a time as ever to give my exciting 2008 division, playoff and award winner picks! We’ll start off by covering each division (one division per day) with the order they will finish along with some brief statements about each team and the standout players from that division. Once all of the divisions are done we will talk playoffs and then finally the 2008 award winners. As always, let me know your opinion on each one!

1.) Philadelphia Phillies: The way I see it, this is their division to lose. Their lineup has three of the most dominant and game changing hitters in the baseball with Rollins, Utley and Howard. Signed Feliz to play third which blows my mind as he has a career line of .252/.288/.433. And no that .288 is not his average, its his on-base percentage…ugh. Top of the rotation looks strong with Hamels and Myers. Need Kendrick to have another strong year and for Moyer to pick up 14 wins again. Also need Lidge to be the closer he was before the Pujols home run.

2.) Atlanta Braves: They like being the underdog in the division. Too many good hitters in this lineup to hold them back. Chipper will be Chipper (if he's healthy), McCann will continue to shine, Teixeira may win NL MVP and Francoeur will have a break out season (prediction: .310/.350/.505, 32 HR and 118 RBI). Old staff needs to stay healthy and continue their magic. Watch Jurrjens as he has a chance to thrive in the rotation for the Braves.

3.) New York Mets: Not to say they will fall flat on their faces again, but I need to pick a shocker and this is it. I just see them being cursed by injuries again. I don’t think Delgado, Beltran or Pedro can make it a full season in 2008. Wright and Reyes will have great seasons again. Santana will shine of course but he’s only one man who can only pitch once every five games. Need Maine to take the next step to help carry the rotation. I know this pick makes Mets fans mad, but I had to do it. They have a lot to prove to me after last year.

4.) Washington Nationals: If they can find some magic in their patchwork rotation, they have a chance to be a very strong team. The lineup is already taking shape with some big power potential in Dukes and Pena. Unfortunately they don’t have room for the returning Johnson and Young (last year’s NL Comeback POY) at first base which leaves them with a difficult decision. Watch Milledge closely as he will have a huge breakout year as he finally has found a home that he feels comfortable in. If they can bring pitching in next season they have a chance to compete in the next few years.

5.) Florida Marlins: Like the Twins, they lost the two faces of their franchise this off season. While they did bring in Miller and top prospect Maybin, it won’t be enough to help this team be even close to contention. Maybin should be able to thrive (even though I believe he should start the year in Triple-A) but Miller still has some issues to work out on the mound. Poor Ramirez is stuck in this mess much like Cabrera was for so many years and will eventually command too much money for the Fish to pay him. Need something to help turn this franchise back around.

2008 NL East Standout Predictions
Star Bat: Mark Teixeira
Star Arm: Johan Santana
Biggest Flop: Mike Hampton
Starburst: Jeff Francoeur/Lastings Milledge (too tough to choose)
Best Rookie: Cameron Maybin

Check out the AL East, AL Central and AL West predictions and check out the NL Central tomorrow!

Keywords: Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Marlins, Braves

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Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Anonymous on Sat 22 Mar 2008 10:57 AM EDT | Permanent Link

What an awful prediction. Mets will win division by 10 games. Phillies were not a playoff team last year, only won because of the Mets collapse. Proved in the post season that Philly had no business being there. Why will the Mets win by 10 games? Something to prove and pitching, pitching, pitching.

Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Matthew Whipps on Mon 24 Mar 2008 02:07 AM EDT | Profile | Permanent Link

I knew I'd make a Met fan angry with that prediction. Let me try to explain...

You are very much correct. The Mets could very well win this division by 10 games...but they also have proven they can completely collapse as well. SO which Mets team will we see?

Now I'm not saying this will be a horrible year again, I'm just saying that I believe all three of these teams will be battling it out until the final week of the season before a team is crowned the winner. I also see injuries being a big decider when its all said and done.

And in the NL East, Santana can only pitch once every five games. After that your rotation is filled with injury concerns or question marks. That's not enough for me to hand them the title.

Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Anonymous on Mon 24 Mar 2008 12:13 PM EDT | Permanent Link

I have to agree with the writer on this one. When I compare the Phils and Mets, I conclude that while the Mets may have more star power (Wright, Beltran, Santana, Wagner), I believe the Phils are better at every other position (including the outfield on aggregate).

I just don't see the pitching, pitching, pitching. The Mets' 2-5 starters are low innings, high pitch count types that will put a strain on a very average bullpen. I don't see any of them throwing 200+ innings. The Phil's 2-5 starters are more efficient (albeit hittable strikes) and at least one of them (Myers) should go 200+.

The writer's post comment is also insightful. It will come down to which team can manage their injuries the best. The Phils proved they could do that last year. The Mets are off to a tough start in that department (Alou and Delgado) and that could well be the difference.

It should be a great rivalry again this year and fans from both teams should enjoy an entertaining season.

Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Keith on Fri 28 Mar 2008 02:44 PM EDT | Permanent Link

It is mind boggling to me how we have to resort to innings pitched to denigrate the Mets starting rotation. Johan is the best pitcher in the game. He should dominate this year. Pedro proved he was ok last year and has looked strong in the spring. He should be fine for at least 25 starts. Maine took a great step forward and his slider/change have both looked improved this year. He also threw 191 innings last year, so that kills the low innings argument. Perez has filthy stuff, although he can be hit or miss. But come on, Perez is our 4th starter... I'll take him over 99% of the 4th starters around the league. And the bullpen wasn't that bad last year. Talk of the pen being a weakness became magnified because of the collapse. The Mets are essentially replacing Glavine and Duque with Johan and Pedro... those are huge upgrades.

As for the lineup, as long as Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are healthy they'll score runs.

I just find it amusing how stating a team's top two starters as being solid somehow turns into a good 5 man rotation.

Re: Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Matthew Whipps on Fri 28 Mar 2008 03:34 PM EDT | Profile | Permanent Link

I love that everyone is chiming in on this debate!!!

Keith, no one is taking anything away from the talent the Mets have. Yes, Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, there is no arguing that. But he only pitches once every five days and let me tell you as a Minnesotan and life long Twins fan, if Santana is your only big time pitcher, it doesn't always help.

As far as the rest of the rotation goes, I just don't see where Mets fans are getting all this confidence that the division should just be handed over to them:

- If Martinez can be healthy (big if) then yes he can be a solid number two guy. Fact is he has lost his velocity but can still hit his spots. But he only started 5 games last year and only 23 the year before. He hasn't thrown over 200 innings since 2005 so I really wouldn't count on him being able to do it this season.

- Maine did well the first half of the year (10-4, 2.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) but was miserable the second half (5-6, 5.53 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) so really you can't say he took a "great step forward." While he may have looked good this spring, spring but fact is you don't know if you will get the pre or post All-Star Maine.

- Perez has shown some nasty stuff but the fact is that in his 8 year career he has only had 3 seasons with an ERA under 5.38 (3.50, 5.38, 5.87, 2.98, 5.85, 6.63, 6.38, 3.56). Those just aren't numbers that I want to hang my hat on.

Now in no way am I trying to chop down the Mets, I'm just saying that all I've heard from Mets fans everywhere is how they are going to walk away with this division. Fact is Philadelphia and Atlanta have incredible offenses and Washington's is going to be strong too. This Mets staff is going to have its hands full dealing with those three teams all season long.

The Mets will contend but I just don't think they will win it.

AWESOME DISCUSSION!!! Keep it up!

Re: Re: Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Keith on Wed 02 Apr 2008 11:40 PM EDT | Permanent Link

I am obviously biased as a Mets fan, but...

Are we really surprised Maine struggled in the second half? I can't say I was. He took a big jump in innings, so it was expected that he would hit a wall. When you look at the season as a whole, he took a positive step forward. As for the spring, I'm not even talking his results. His change and slider look much improved. I've been a big Maine guy since we acquired him. I am expecting a Harenesque leap this season.

As for Ollie, the dude is filthy. The Pirates screwed him up trying to make him a finesse pitcher, and last year he showed what he was capable of. Even when we got him in '06 he pitched really well in the playoffs. Both he and Maine are at the age when pitchers' careers usually take off.

Pedro, well, he's hurt already... hopefully he gets back by mid May.

Plus, the bullpen, which wasn't that terrible until the end of the season last year, should be much improved. Heilman is a year removed from elbow surgery, Mota is out, and the pen should benefit from more rest in general.

As for the Braves and Phillies. The Braves have more age in their rotation than the Mets do (Smoltz and Glavine), and a guy who is even more of an injury risk than Pedro (Hampton). Hudson is ok, but I've never been a big Hudson guy. They lost Andruw and Chipper is going to hit the DL at some point. Kelly Johnson is nicked up as well.

The Phillies' rotation stinks. So does their bullpen. The only pitcher that scares me is Hamels. We'll see how Myers re-adjusts to being a starter. Lidge isn't any great shakes at closer, and Gordon is not great either. Their offense, while it will definitely be formidable, did lose Rowand. I am not a big believer in Pedro Feliz. With Johan and Ollie, that gives us two lefties to match up with Philly.

Lastly, I don't know what Met fans you've been talking to, but I've seen a lot of complaining about the lineup online. Anyway, I do think Philly and Atlanta will be in this thing, but I think the Mets pitching is too strong and the offense will be good enough.

I'll take Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Johan, Maine, Perez, and Wagner over any other team in this division's top 3 position players and pitchers plus closer.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Anonymous on Thu 03 Apr 2008 10:46 AM EDT | Permanent Link

I am a braves fan but I agree with Matthew. Phillies should have the biggest chance to win NL East again.

I think Phillies will give their pitchers enough support to win games and that is not about their talent is better. It is just the offense is too strong in that ball park. And please take note of this, Phillies had a awful April last year. Almost as bad as Met's collapse. Therefore, you cannot assume Mets won't have the same collapse until you see if Phillies have the same April again. (By the way, I don't think Mets will collapse because of Santana, please read all the reasons stated in ESPN, just my opinion). Mets has the best rotation, no question about it. The question is how much better. They will need John Maine and Oliver Perez to step up, just repeat the last years performance is enough. Satana alone will win 10 more games than last year for Mets. However, if the 4 other mets starters loses 10 or more games than last year. You see my arguement is.

As my favourite braves, there are just too many ifs. I don't make my prediction on something is unpredictable. I would love to see Hampton not hurt this year, Chipper plays whole season, Mark wins MVP, braves scores 900 runs. Top 4 braves pitchers all wins 15 games or more and bullpen has the best ERA in the league. That is all in my dream though.

Anyway, BRAVES GOGOGO!!!!

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Matthew Whipps on Thu 03 Apr 2008 11:11 PM EDT | Profile | Permanent Link

You make excellent points. But I don't know, the top three position players for the three teams look like this:

Reyes: .280/.354/.421, 36 2B, 12 HR, 77 RBI, 78 SB
Beltran: .276/.353/.525, 33 2B, 33 HR, 112 RBI, 23 SB
Wright: .325/..416/.546, 42 2B, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 34 SB

Rollins: .296/.344/.531, 38 2B, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 SB
Utley: .332/.410/.566, 48 2B, 22 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB
Howard: .268/.392/.584, 26 2B, 47 HR, 136 RBI, 1 SB

Jones: .337/.425/.604, 42 2B, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 5 SB
Teixeira: .317/.404/.615, 9 2B, 17 HR, 56 RBI (54 G)
Francoeur: .293/.338/.444, 40 2B, 19 HR, 105 RBI, 5 SB

Looking at these three, the Mets have more speed, the Phillies have more power and the Braves are better hitters. Everyone can take what they'd like from these numbers but all I know is that this is going to be another fun year in the NL East. Especially with how strong the Nationals are looking! Once again, I think it will come down to pitching and who has the least amount of injuries.

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 2008 Division Predictions: NL East

by Anonymous on Fri 04 Apr 2008 07:44 AM EDT | Permanent Link

I meant the top of the line up, not the top hitters. Braves just doesn't have the lead off hitter like Phillies' and Mets', (as you can see you top hitters list, their lead off hitters are their top hitters).

Secondly, I think you are right about the injuries. Considering Pedro and Mike are hurt again, you can see why I would say Phllies are the best team to beat in NL East.

Plus braves's hitting look awful except Chipper and Yunel at moment, much like Edger and Chppier did everything last year. I hope they realise that they just cannot rely on Chppier Jones all the time.

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