Two days ago, Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker said that he'd like rookie Joey Votto and slugger Adam Dunn to be more aggressive at the plate.  He made a couple of questionable statements:

"I really, really hate the called third strike. I hate that. You're guessing and you ain't ready to hit."

On Votto: "He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren't the only criteria. I'd like to see him more aggressive."

"A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away the aggressiveness of some young kids. Most of the time you've got to put handcuffs on a young to keep him from swinging."

I love player development in the minor league and like many 'experts', I have many theories on how a prospect should develop.

One of these theories is about pitch recognition and plate discipline.

You can't expect a young player to succeed at the major league level if he hasn't a clue of what pitch is coming or if he swings widly at any borderline pitches.  To score runs, you have to get on base and yes, in certain situations, you also have to put the ball in play to score a runner on third or hope that it falls for a base hit.

They say that power is the last thing to come, but plate discipline should be the first thing to work on when a hitter reaches pro baseball.  This is the foundation to hitting and once you can handle it, you can then experiment with your other abilities.

For example, everybody is impressed with Chicago White Sox's Alexei Ramirez, but after seeing a few scouting reports, his aggressiveness will definitely have to be dealt with, because once the word is out, major league hitters will be all over him and exploiting his tendency to swing at everything. 

This is not to say that he cannot be successful in the future, but he will definitely have to find a middle ground to being patient and swinging at everything.

In Votto's case, you are looking at a 24-year-old left-handed batter who has put up the following averages in the minors: .289/.385/.476.  Three out of six seasons saw him display an OBP over .400.  That is remarkable for any player and something he should be proud of.

A problem that often surfaces with very patient hitter like Votto is that they sacrifice their batting average for a high OBP, either because they lack aggressiveness (always waiting for that perfect pitch) or simply are not exceptional contact hitters.

With the Canadian prospect, we have the best of both worlds; he can be a .300 hitter AND take his walk (13% of the time on average).  If that were not enough, he can produce as many extra-base hits as the best in the game (at least in  the minors...).

His MLE OPS in 2006 was .901 and .814 last season, with a contact rate set at 80%.  His projected line in 2008 is .283/.360/.486.

Yet, Baker mentions in the article that he talked to him about being more aggressive at the plate during Spring Training!!  Talk about a dumb move.

His quote about hating the third strike and the hitter just not ready to hit could not be more offline.  What if he gets a walk?  Isn't that the same thing as hitting a single?  Ok, maybe not with runners on base, but when you have a good contact hitter (who's still 24) who can get on base, you just don't mess with that.

In Adam Dunn, we have another situation that calls for a little explaining.

The 28-year-old smasher has a great eye, but in his case, he really takes too much borderline pitches.  He even admitted that fact this Spring and prior to the 2007 season, when his batting coach worked with him to be more aggressive when he was behind in the count, especially with two strikes against him.  The new approach worked, with his batting average improving by 30 points (to .264) and hitting .271 in the first half of the season.  On top of it, Dunn had his best OBP in the majors (.384) to show for it.

Strangely, his contact rate was better in the second half (73%, best since he reach the majors), but his batting average lowered to .257.  His willingness to swing the bat more also resulted in an increase in his BABIP (.309), his best showing in that category since 2004, his best year in the majors in terms of production (.266/.388/.569, 34 doubles, 46 home runs, 102 RBIs, 108 BB and 195 K).  Would you take these numbers in exchange for the 195 K?  I hope so, although a lineup made up entirely of hitters like him would be a huge risk.

Dunn also swung 31% of the time at the first he saw in an at-bat, his highest total in that category since he reached the majors.

The call for a more aggressive approach for Votto and Dunn was misguided in both cases.

With Votto, you are toying with something that already works and with Dunn, the adjustments he made are already showing an improvement in numbers.  It would be foolish to expect Dunn to hit .300, simply because he is not a .300 hitter, just as Troy Glaus will never be either.  They take violent hacks at pitches thrown to them and their extra-base abilities are what they are expected to exploit. 

To reach base 38% of the time should be cherished, though not to the point of expecting nothing else, but what Baker is doing right now in Cincinnati has me worried...very worried. 

Just think that top prospect Jay Bruce will have to deal with him in the near future.