As you probably already know, the Rays machinations involving Longoria's service time clock were made irrelevant this week when they inked the consensus league #1 prospect to a long term contract for six years (with three team option years tacked on to the end). The minimum outlay for the Rays on the deal is $17.5 million. Sure $17.5 million to me or you is no big deal, but, to a young kid like Longoria, it's probably comforting to know that he no longer has to worry about working at Home Depot after his baseball career ends.

There is risk here for the Rays. He's got less than 30 Major League at bats right now so it's not like he's already an All-Star. That said, it seems extremely unlikely that he'll be a player incapable of contributing anything at all to a major league roster. Even some of the more famous "failed prospects" wound up being useful bench players and part-time starters. Earlier in the year (thanks to Pete Toms for bringing up the comparison) I talked about the disappoingting career thusfar of Andy Marte. While there are differences, it's not hard to see the similarities between the two. Both very young third basemen touted as having a huge amount of potential, Marte continues to bounce up and down between the Majors and the Minors without fulfilling much of that promise. I think you reasonably have to conisder it a cautionary tale for a contract like this.

There are differences though. The first is that Longoria has had more success in the minors than Andy Marte ever had. Marte's numbers were very good considering how young he was, Longoria's have been very good regardless of how old he is. Marte was considered to be a bit more of an "all or nothing" power hitter, Longoria is considered to be a bit more of an All-Around hitter. To put another way, Marte's ultimate model would be Mike Schmidt, Longoria's would be Chipper Jones. The biggest difference is the opening for playing time Longoria has is truly massive. He has no competition for playing time within the Rays system whatsoever. Marte was blocked by Chipper Jones, and then, after a couple of trades, still had a couple of capable players who good play third ahead of him if he didn't produce.

The big thing with this contract though is that in today's market, committing to $17.5 million long term for a player with Longoria's potential ability is not really much of a risk. I mean the Giants and the Dodgers each shelled  close to that much per year for a pair of center fielders who come with risks of failure not that much less than Longoria's. But they are also in their 30's playing the one position where mobility is the biggest factor. So yes there comes the risk of having to eat all that money if things don't work out, but then that risk comes whether you sign young, old or middle aged players to long term contracts as well. Longoria's downside appears to be someone like teammate Eric Hinske (his bat doesn't become as good as advertised and he has to get moved to the outfield or first because of glove problems), and Hinske has essentially made that much in his career anyway. I have to say, as risks go, this is a fairly minor one, and, for the opportunity to control a top prospect like Longoria through his twenties, it's a good one as well.