- Phillies - Mets … have the Phillies gotten into the Mets’ heads?
- Detroit--can they contend or is 0-7 too much of a hole from where to get out.
- Buying or selling: Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Brewers, and Cardinals
- Who is the first manager to be fired?
Well, the Jays have a nice little run going against the Red Sox that’s getting close to Phils-Mets territory but I hold no illusions that they are quaking in fear of the Blue Jays. Yes, sometimes teams can get frustrated against a certain opponent but these sort of “spells” are easily broken with a passed ball in the eighth that breaks up a tie game, a three-run walk off bomb from a utility infielder or a start where an opposing middling pitcher suddenly is possessed by the shade of Tom Seaver. How does that saying go? Momentum is the next game?
Detroit--can they contend or is 0-7 too much of a hole from which to get out?
The biggest difference between 0-7 and 3-10 is that you have six extra games to make up the seven games you are already in the hole. Well, the Phillies started 3-10 last year. The thing is, recent history bears out that this isn’t the end of the world--not even close. First of all, the absolute best time to have a seven game losing streak is at the start of the season--it gives you 155 games to make it up. Secondly, since 2000 there have been 48 teams qualify for the post season--15 of them had losing streaks of at least seven games. Three teams won their pennant and two went on to win the World Series (the 2000 Yankees and the 2006 Cardinals). In fact, the Cardinals that year had, not one but two eight game losing streaks. In 2001, the Oakland A’s had a seven game losing streak in the second week of the season and still won 102 games! Here’s the full list…
Year Team L/Strk Dates 2007 Rockies 8 (June 22 to June 29) 2007 Yankees 7 (April 20 to April 27) 2006 Athletics 7 (May 20 to May 26) 2006 Dodgers 8 (July 19 to July 26) 2006 Cardinals 8 (June 20 to June 27 and July 27 to August 4) 2005 Astros 7 (May 18 to May 24) 2005 Padres 8 (July 17 to July 26) 2004 Dodgers 8 (May 13 to May 21) 2003 Twins 8 (July 5 to July 13) 2002 Cardinals 7 (July 31 to August 7) 2001 Astros 8 (May 20 to May 29) 2001 Athletics 7 (April 8 to April 15) ... 102 wins 2000 Mariners 8 (August 12 to August 20) 2000 Giants 8 (May 12 to May 20) 2000 Yankees 7 (September 25 to October 1)
Buying or selling: Orioles, Royals, White Sox, Brewers, Cardinals
The Orioles are committed to rebuilding. Their 6-1 start is no different from their 8-1 run from April 11-22 last year or the Tigers 0-7 start. It’s just random hot/cold streaks that occur in most seasons. I would expect Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff and/or Melvin Mora to be moved if the right deal emerges. The Royals are likewise and will probably look to see if there’s a market for Russ Gload, Mark Grudzielanek or Brett Tomko develops. The White Sox and Cardinals are probably in wait-and-see mode. Ostensibly, they’re clubs in transition/rebuild/reloading mode but may be willing to see if they can catch lightning-in-a-bottle. The Brewers are contenders and I expect themselves to conduct themselves accordingly insofar as trades are concerned.
Who is the first manager to be fired?
Well … I think there are several candidates. If the Mets start slow, you can look for Willie Randolph to go--the club paid a lot of Johan Santana and expect immediate dividends. Once again, the Brewers are off to a hot start and if they start to stumble, again I think Ned Yost will be shown the door. Jim Leyland getting the axe may be considered a quick fix for the Tigers (although I would be surprised). All things considered, I think Randolph is on the hot seat.
Best Regards
John