This is a rant--you’ve been forewarned.
I have stated on a great many occasions that I am a bit of a sabermetric apostate. I feel very strongly about the new level of positive understanding sabermetrics has brought to the sport but there’s a lot more than numbers, adjusted or otherwise, to fully understand the game.
Let’s look at the Toronto Blue Jays offense objectively…
They have a catcher that is above league average offensively (Gregg Zaun’s OPS+ is 105), their first baseman (Lyle Overbay), while off to a slow start enjoys a solid .387 OBP and an OPS+ of 113. Their current keystone has a slick fielding second baseman in Aaron Hill who wields an almost league average stick while shortstop David Eckstein’s sub par percentages are offset by his solid situational hitting…
Sit. BA OBP SLGYes, he struggles with the sacks juiced and late and close but he’s one of the few Jays that are not rally-killers.
Tot. .246 .315 .322
RISP .303 .343 .394
Men on .277 .306 .383
__3 .333 .333 .333
12_ .500 .500 2.000
_2_ .286 .333 .286
_23 .375 .375 .375
__3 LT 2 out .333 .429 .333
2 Out/RISP .455 .538 .727
Third base was initially manned by a league average-ish bat (and is now handling duties at SS) and is currently occupied by their best hitter (Scott Rolen’s OPS+ is 165) The Jays CF and RF (Vernon Wells and Alex Rios) are both comfortably above league average and both are solid defenders. DH Matt Stairs, while in a mild slump the last two weeks (although slugging .462 over that span) is also above league norms. Overall, the Blue Jays are above league average in getting men on base (5th in the AL and 2nd in the AL East).
This sounds like a serviceable lineup--right?
Well, their next to last in runs scored and first in the majors by a good margin in grounding into double plays.
In short, they suck … badly. The numbers tell us that they should be above league average at this point in runs scored but to date they have played 38 games and scored five runs or fewer in 30 of them and four runs or less in 24 games. The Jays have scored three runs or less in half of their contests.
It’s pretty much a team wide phenomenon…
Sit. BA OBP SLGAdding to my frustration is that the Jays seemingly take the first pitch with men on base more often than not. I do know that no team in the division (I didn’t check the rest of the AL) swings at first pitches less often than the Jays. However, they hit .316/.333/.434 with the count 0-0, and .226/.245/.301 with the count 0-1. More often than not in 2008, that first pitch is a strike. It’s almost that the entire lineup is tentative, looking not to make an out rather than getting a hit. I am not advocating that they become hyper-aggressive but they’re allowing the pitcher to dictate the at bat with disastrous results (47 double plays).
Tot. .254 .332 .369
RISP .209 .297 .284
Men on .242 .322 .350
__3 .208 .317 .229
12_ .231 .298 .337
1_3 .182 .260 .273
_2_ .194 .331 .245
_23 .250 .263 .281
__3 LT 2 out .257 .287 .329
__3 2 out .156 .261 .221
2 Out/RISP .180 .298 .255
Put simply, they’re scared, they’re tight, and instead of trying to win they’re trying not to lose, instead of attacking they’re counterpunching.
I remember last season the amount of heat I took for criticizing Frank Thomas for looking to walk rather than hit (THT June 22, 2007)--especially with men on base often passing on very hittable pitches. The sabermetric orthodoxy informed me that I didn’t understand how runs are scored--he had a .370 OBP!! Thomas himself stated that his mindset was wrong and would adjust accordingly. When I initially made that point, Thomas was batting .226/.370/.392, after he made the adjustment--.310/.381/.539. Walks are good--hits are better but I see almost the entire lineup looking to reach base leaving the driving in runners for the next guy up.
Could it be the fixation on OBP is hurting the Jays’ offense? After all, getting on base is good because that’s how you score runs therefore the lineup is so fixated on reaching base that they’re allowing the pitcher to dictate the at bat. The Jays have grounded into 29 of their double plays when even or behind on the count (excluding 0-0 counts). I can’t help but wonder if working counts and looking for walks with men on base is giving the pitcher a huge advantage by putting Toronto batters into counts where they have to swing at what the pitcher wishes to throw which is resulting in all these twin-killings.
I can’t see these double plays as being a statistical fluke when I see the hitters’ approach with men on base. Pardon me for invoking the overused and overstated “grit,” “fire,” and “desire” clichés but in big situations I’m seeing the Jays squeezing the sawdust from their bats trying desperately not to screw up. I don’t see the proverbial “eye-of-the-tiger” where you almost see the batter pity the pitcher for what he is about to do to him. Other than Scott Rolen and Matt Stairs I really haven’t witnessed many Blue Jays hitters want to be the guy up when the big hit is needed. More often than not I see a hybrid of Frank Thomas early in 2007 coupled with the recent post season versions of Alex Rodriguez from the lineup.
What I observe strikes me as a very risk averse approach where the batter only tries to hit when a base on balls suddenly seems unlikely--unfortunately when this occurs the pitcher already has the advantage and things end up poorly for the home nine.
Getting back to Frank Thomas for a moment--back in the early 1990’s when he annually was topping the century mark in runs, RBI and walks folks often invoked his approach as being similar to Ted Williams. In both cases, they went up to the plate looking for a pitch to murder. They would foul off good pitches and if that ’pitch to kill’ never materialized they would simply walk down to first base. Both men were OBP gods but they weren’t such because they were OBP oriented guys--they were such because they were tremendous hitters who accepted the base on balls as the consolation prize and not the entire reason for the at bat.
I think that this is the malaise affecting the Jays' hitters. They go up to the plate looking for the consolation prize rather than the jackpot thinking that while, they‘re not getting the big prize, the consolation prize is better than nothing. What the Jays need however is for one of the more talented hitters to begin thinking jackpot because when you get right down to it, consolation prizes are for those who do not finish in first place.
The Jays have jackpot minded pitchers but not hitters and its incumbent on J.P. Ricciardi to get the Blue Jays somebody with both the ability and the desire to hit the jackpot if nobody else emerges besides Rolen. Matt Stairs is a useful bat but he isn’t the level of player needed. Ricciardi needs to stop rummaging around the slot machine looking for enough consolation prizes that perhaps he can hit the jackpot without inserting a coin and pulling the arm. Ricciardi is doing everything with the slot machine but that--he is shaking it, bumping it, looking underneath and behind it, blowing on it, kicking it, nudging it just so long as he doesn’t have to gamble anything.
This is what has convinced me beyond any doubt that there is collusion going on as regards Barry Bonds. The Jays have an obvious problem with an obvious solution. Yet Ricciardi looks to a cast-off from a team desperately needing offense and the minor league system of a team in rebuilding mode for answers to Toronto’s incredible offensive ineptitude.
Here’s the thing, when the offensively challenged Padres release Jim Edmonds, the Blue Jays already poor offense loses Vernon Wells, the hitless wonder Seattle Mariners release Brad Wilkerson, contending AL teams have struggling DH’s and players like Jody Gerut, the aforementioned Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench are what teams look to for solutions (and you can bet the Wells’ injury will be handled in similar fashion--hey J.P. do you want Jacob Brumfield’s phone number?) then something isn’t kosher.
Barry Bonds may a cheating slime ball but guess what? If there’s collusion going on then the owners are no better and what is worse is that I will go to my grave believing that the Blue Jays’ organization cheated the fans out of a post season berth by agreeing to an illegal collusion. As far as I’m concerned, J.P. Ricciardi threw the 2008 season by not doing everything in his power to win--even breaking rules to accomplish this end.
If an arbitrator rules that MLB colluded against Barry Bonds then J.P. Ricciardi’s claims about his integrity are a sham and that the organization cheated and defrauded its fans. If they think the fan base would react poorly to seeing Bonds in the powder blues then just imagine what they will think when they learn the club deliberately tanked the 2008 season.
Best Regards
John
This article was reposted ... the reader comment is below:
When the product on the field doesn't even approach the best it could be - and not because of the interference of other teams or lack of money - the integrity of the game has been weighed and found wanting. When a majority of teams are acting against their self interests in not nibbling at a guy who offers them substantial improvement without even the cost of prospects, I'm not even gonna watch their minor league product.
Nice guys who aren't good enough to play major league level baseball should not be on the field. As long as they are, every GM who remarks about not signing Barry Bonds for some clubhouse intangible reason is a lying sack of sh it. And they all can go rot.
Like the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Padres place in the standings -followed by their attendance. Well deserved.
I kinda understand the Indians, I mean Hafner has $57 million through 2012 which puts them in a similar position to the Giants and Zito. Hard to take that writeoff. But nearly every other team? Cmon.--Rick