Philadelphia Phillies starter Brett Myers once again gave his team little hope of winning a game he started, going four and one-third innings last night against the Atlanta Braves, allowing eight runs (six earned) on nine hits and three walks, while striking out six. He allowed two first-inning solo home runs – a lead-off HR for Yunel Escobar and a one-out HR to Chipper Jones – and another solo homer to Kelly Johnson in the second inning. He continued to get pounded as the game progressed but mostly lucked out with his baffling ability to strike out hitters in addition to a fourth-inning double play.
Myers has shown some glimmer of hope in that his strikeout and walk rates so far this year do not differ much at all from 2005 and ’06, when he was a starter (8.69, 8.59, 8.10 K/9 and 2.84, 2.86, 3.04 BB/9 in ’05, ’06, and ’08, respectively). Additionally, Myers has had a couple good starts in’ 08: April 17 vs. Houston (7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K) and May 3 vs. San Francisco (7 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 10 K). Overall, Myers has had a tremendous ability to serve up home runs for the opposition and he has also had a tremendous ability to still make batters swing and miss. That’s baffling: he’s hittable… but not hittable.
What I draw from that is one or more of three possibilities: he is tipping his pitches (unlikely since we would see a noticeable decrease in strikeouts); he, his catchers, and/or his coaches are ignoring or misinterpreting scouting reports and hitter tendencies (also unlikely as we’d see a similar decline from the other starters); or, he is simply not locating well.
Let’s first have a look at his home runs. 7 of his 15 HR (47%) have come on straight fastballs; four have been hit by lefties, three have been hit by righties. The average speed of those fastballs is 90.5 MPH. The average of these fastballs is about a half-foot to the left of the middle of home plate (from the catcher/umpire’s perspective) and about 2.7 feet high as it crosses home plate. Considering that the average Major Leaguer is six feet tall, these pitches are generally around the belt.
For lefties, these fastballs are, on average, a third of a foot to the left of the middle of home plate and 2.5 feet high as it crosses the plate; for righties, they’re two-thirds of a foot to the left of home plate and 3 feet high as it crosses the plate. I’m not savvy with the graphs as Mike Fast and others are, otherwise I’d paint a pretty picture for you.
Here are the average data for the non-fastball home runs:
Sliders (4): 84.5 MPH, .22 feet to the right of the middle of home plate, 2.25 feet high.
Change-ups (2): 84.4 MPH, .46 feet to the left of the middle of home plate, 3.13 feet high.
Cut fastball (1): 88.3 MPH, .04 feet to the right of the middle of home plate, 2.97 feet high.
Sinker (1): 88.8 MPH, .90 feet to the left of the middle of home plate, 2.37 feet high.
Remember, the data for the horizontal location of the ball
relative to the middle of home plate is from the catcher/umpire’s viewpoint,
not the pitcher’s. If you want to download the Excel spreadsheet I created for this data, click here.
So far this season, Myers is averaging 2.5 HR, and about 8 K and 3 BB per 9 innings, with only the HR/9 rate deviating wildly from his career average. His HR/FB rate is, unsurprisingly, astronomically high at 24.6% (his career average is 15.5%).
His batted ball ratios point a bit to the poor performance,
as his GB% is down (43.3% in ’08 to career average 47.1%) and his FB% is up a few percentage points from
his career average (35.7% from 32.2%), while his LD% is about the same (21.1% in ’08 to career
average 20.7%). Additionally, his BABiP is only slightly
higher than average: .332 in ‘08 to .304 over his career.
Since we can pretty much narrow the problem down to location, the question then becomes “How do we fix it?” The Phillies, who are expected to heavily contend for the NL East title, cannot afford to throw Myers out to the mound every fifth day, sit on their hands, and hope for the best when he has shown but faint glimmers of hope in his eight starts this season (three quality starts, but in his April 11 quality start, he gave up 3 solo HR and in his May 3 quality start, he faced the anemic San Francisco Giants offense).
I am not a member of any baseball team’s front office, and what I am about to suggest may show why I am not and will never be a member of a baseball team’s front office, but I think the Phillies should have Myers thoroughly examined for any potential health concerns (no, that’s not the outrageous idea). If there are none, I make up a flimsy reason to put Myers on the D.L. (“fatigue”) and give him some rest for a couple weeks. In the meantime, I search for available starting pitchers via trade or call up one of J.A. Happ, Josh Outman, or Carlos Carrasco, and give them a few weeks (about four starts) to see how they perform. After a couple weeks off, Myers makes a couple rehab starts in the Minor Leagues to work on his location. If there’s improvement, great, he goes right back into the rotation; if not, there are a few possibilities and none of them are good:
Possibility 1: Move Brett Myers to the bullpen again. Have him set up for Brad Lidge, pushing Tom Gordon to the seventh inning with J.C. Romero. Since Lidge is a free agent after the season, Myers gets about a month to set up to see how he performs. If there’s an improvement, wave Lidge around as trade bait and pick up a decent starting pitcher, and move Myers into the closer’s role and Gordon back into the set-up role. Considering how dominant Lidge has been, though, the Phillies may have no interest in trading him if he has expressed any interest in signing a contract extension.
Possibility 2: Move Brett Myers to the bullpen again, but only into the role Clay Condrey now owns: mop-up relief. Use Myers only in games where the Phillies or their opponents have a lead of 4+ runs or when the Phillies’ starting pitcher can’t go deep into the game (something Myers is familiar with). However, he said last season and in the off-season that he thrives on the adrenaline rush he gets from pitching in a close game, so he may not savor this role at all and his performance will diminish as a result (maybe that’s what he’s doing now, as he’s openly stated he likes closing more than starting).
Possibility 3: Designate Myers for assignment. Myers is in the second year of a three-year, $25.75 million contract. He is due $8.5 million this season and $12 million in 2009. If the Phillies try and trade him, they have almost no bargaining position at all considering how poorly he’s performed thus far, his off-the-field issues, and his contract; thus, they likely wouldn’t get anything of value in return. If the Phillies release him, they are still responsible for the rest of his contract.
The first possibility has the most potential upside, but as
is usually the case, it also comes with a lot of risk since Myers is being
thrust into high-leverage situations. The second possibility is the safest bet
but also has the potential to backfire. The third possibility is like Plan Z if
the Phillies have no more patience for Myers and don’t want to risk him costing
the team any more games. There is also a fourth possibility I didn’t mention,
which is to do nothing by putting Myers right back in the rotation regardless of his improvement or lack thereof. As a team with a lot of potential, it might be unwise
to put half the chips on black and half the chips on white… and even a few on
green.
Since I’m just a fan and have no experience making personnel decisions for Major League Baseball teams, I can’t have a truly educated and objective opinion of which is the best route to go should Myers fail to show any improvement following his Minor League rehab starts. For what it’s worth, I’d go with the first possibility and move Myers to the back of the bullpen to eventually supplant Lidge (again, if he succeeds; if not, we move down the list of possibilities), and then use Lidge as trade bait to pick up a decent starting pitcher and perhaps a prospect.
Lastly, there is still the thought that the first quarter of the season still represents a small sample size. However, Myers hasn’t shown any sign that he’s improving or that he is going to improve any time soon. Sometimes, you just have to nip a problem in the bud, and such is the case with Myers as the Phillies can’t afford to have their starters hemorrhage wins this season, not with an offense that isn’t as good as expected and with a bullpen that is finally solid after years of dealing with journeymen and castaways like Jose Mesa and Antonio Alfonseca.
The Phillies’ front office has made a name for itself by sitting on their collective hands, hoping for the best, and taking nothing but the safest bets. It is why, until last season, the Phillies were the best team since 2001 to not make the playoffs (they won at least 80 games each season). They finally got off to a good start this season and were five games above .500 going into last night’s game. The Phillies didn’t reach five games above .500 until July 28 last season. The Phillies, along with the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres of last season, know exactly how much one game can mean, so they can’t afford to let the Brett Myers issue fester.
Image credit to George Nikitin of the AP courtesy Phillies.com.