Had Jayson Werth not had an historic offensive performance last night against the Toronto Blue Jays, Jimmy Rollins and his poor approach at the plate and on the base paths would have been in question.  The Jays sent out rookie left-handed starting pitcher David Purcey whom the Phillies hadn’t faced before.

As a lead-off hitter on a team unfamiliar with the opposing pitcher, it’s Rollins’ job to take pitches to help his teammates behind him ascertain a number of things including the pitcher’s release point, pitch tells (tipping off pitches), velocity, and movement. Additionally, Purcey had shown in his previous start that he lacks control, walking seven hitters in four and one-third innings against the Detroit Tigers.

Rollins is last year’s MVP in the National League; surely he’ll do the right thing and take some pitches to lead off the first inning. Incorrect: Rollins swung at a first-pitch fastball and flied out to center fielder Alex Rios.

Between then and Rollins’ next at-bat, Werth put the Phillies on the board with a three-run homer. Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell got on base ahead of him via walks. In the third inning, Rollins came up for his next at-bat and bunted the first pitch he saw – a change-up – down the first base line for an infield single. It was odd to see despite Rollins being one of the faster players in baseball since he rarely attempts to bunt.

In two at-bats, the lead-off hitter saw a grand total of two pitches. It didn’t get better. Shane Victorino walked and Chase Utley strode to the plate with runners on first and second base with no outs. After working the count to 1-1, Purcey threw a fastball that was close to being a strike. For some reason, Rollins attempted to steal third base, and, for some reason, stopped. Shane Victorino, bringing up the rear, assumed that Rollins wouldn’t make a base running gaffe and continued towards second. Catcher Greg Zaun strolled out towards Victorino between first and second (Rollins was standing on second base) with nowhere to go, and tagged him out.

Presumably, manager Charlie Manuel has given Rollins free reign on the bases, so the idea to steal third base was likely entirely Rollins’ doing. You can’t really fault Victorino because if the play unfolds as it normally does, the catcher either attempts to nail the lead base runner or doesn’t bother to make a throw; rarely does the catcher go after the trailing base runner.

Strategically, it makes no sense to attempt to steal third base in that situation. You have runners on first and second with no outs with the best hitters in the lineup looming in Utley, Howard, and Burrell. According to BaseballProspectus.com’s run expectancy matrix, 1.50 runs are expected with runners on first and second with no one out and 1.98 are expected with runners on second and third with no one out (if Victorino hadn’t tried to advance, runners on first and third with no outs would’ve given an expectancy of 1.72 runs). However, given Victorino’s speed and the hitting ability of the 3-4-5-6 hitters in the Phillies’ lineup, the gap between the two situations is presumably less.  And given that the score was 3-0, it made even less sense to attempt to steal third base.

When Jesse Litsch – another pitcher the Phillies are unfamiliar with – came in to relieve Purcey in the bottom of the fourth inning, Jamie Moyer had the correct approach, and he’s a pitcher! He took three pitches – a called strike followed by two balls – before swinging the bat. Rollins came up for his third at-bat of the game and, what do you know, he actually takes a couple pitches before deciding to swing. The result was better, too: he made great contact and lined out to right fielder Matt Stairs, who made a nice catch on the sinking liner.

Rollins was lucky Werth went 3-for-4 with 3 homers and 8 ribbies to overshadow his poor approach last night.