You’re just going to have to trust me on the particulars.

To begin with, I was talking with a baseball insider and we were discussing the rather strong opinion of a third party that we both have heard quite a bit from.

Pardon the vagueness--but I like both these guys and don’t wish to cause them any discomfort … all the more so because their paths cross on a fairly regular basis.

At any rate, our discussion was surrounding the third party’s distaste of things such as sacrifice hits, putting plays on and not being really big on the stolen base. He’s espouses an Earl Weaver "get on base and wait for the three-run jack" early 2000’s Oakland A’s sort of offensive approach to the game.

When I brought up this gentleman’s opinion with my insider acquaintance--asking for any insights why he holds such a strong opinion on the issue he informed me that he’s a big fantasy player and that shapes a lot of his thoughts on the game.

I am not really into that myself and my knowledge is minimal. I have no problem with folks who enjoy that sort of thing since we all have our ways of getting our baseball fix when games are not on and who am I to judge how a fellow fan scratches that particular itch?

What I do know of that particular breed is that they religiously check boxscores to see how their players did every game and I guess they assess wins and losses based on the stats of the players on their team. I also know that quite a few players in these leagues are into sabermetrics. It strikes me as the perfect marriage--for guys into stats and statistical analysis what better way to enjoy your (non game watching) baseball smak then involve yourself in a pastime that you have to understand the numbers better than the next guy?

I can't help but wonder if that's part of why quote/unquote "little ball" and manufacturing runs methodology have fallen into disfavour with segments of this group of fans. As I understand it, offensively you get points for runs scored, runs batted in, hits and steals--and they get you a certain amount of points.

However, when players on your fantasy team plays little ball/manufacturing run game it helps produce runs for the actual team on the field but for the player executing--he gets an out while a different player will get the run or the RBI. Put another way, run scoring in these fantasy leagues works differently that in the game on the field. With a man on first and second--nobody out the difference between your guy bunting and trying for a three run bomb is huge.

Before we proceed further, this is not a treatise on the merits of "little ball." I do agree that giving away outs is generally a bad idea however I do feel strongly that it is at times necessary. If you continually lose one-run games because you are always trying for 2-4 runs with every swing then a rethink might be in order. Run scoring is important, run distribution all the more so. They do not hand out division titles and wild card berths to teams that score the most runs--they are given to teams that score more runs than the other team most frequently.

Generally, the team that scores the most runs have the best chance to score more runs than the other team but it is not an absolute. We need look no further than the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks (scored 712 runs and allowed 732 runs and finished 90-72) or the 1960 World Series where the New York Yankees scored twice as many runs (55-27) as the Pittsburgh Pirates and lost in seven games. A team has to be prepared to sacrifice run scoring for run distribution (i.e.: playing for one run) in order to win a given game.

However, in fantasy baseball there is no such thing.

Unless I'm mistaken (and feel free to correct me fantasy players--see title of post) there are no (or minimal) points awarded for moving along base runners unless it is through a hit or a walk. The fantasy game encourages a selfish style of play where nobody gets credit for hitting the ball to the right side with a man on second or moving two base runners into scoring position for somebody else to drive home. 

The funny thing is--I started to explore sabermetrics since conventional measures didn’t satisfy me as respects player performance. To wit: Last night, the Blue Jays had Matt Stairs, Ken Mench and Lyle Overbay batting 5-6-7 last night. Suppose in that game that Stairs reached via an error and Mench doubled him to third; Overbay hits a deep fly ball to left field to score Stairs. Gregg Zaun and David Purcey both made out (one of few Purcey made last night it should be noted).

According to traditional stats, Stairs scored a run and Overbay received an RBI even though one made an out and the other would have been out had the defense done their job. The guy who did all the work and had the important at bat (Mench) gets diddley-squat. This is why (1) I prefer BA/OBP/SLG/OPS+ as a quick and dirty way to measure offensive contributions rather than runs and RBI and (2) why I began to look into sabermetrics.

I wanted to see who really deserved the credit in scoring runs.  

However, in fantasy baseball it works more like traditionalist baseball in that the guy who crosses home plate or the bat that got him there gets the points/runs while the guy that may have been key gets taken to the nearest oak tree and hanged by the neck until dead.

Or not.

For those of you who are wondering if I have taken leave of my senses well let me assure you--I think I have done just that. Watching the Toronto Blue Jays the last two seasons would have Mahatma Ghandi looking for a high powered rifle and a clock tower. Last year, the Blue Jays had me reassess my views on little ball/manufacturing runs and this year they have me rethinking whether too much emphasis on OBP can cause more harm than good.

As I wrote on THT awhile back, I keep finding disconnects between what the numbers tell me and my eyes tell me--the Blue Jays offensive offense have brought it into bold relief. As I discussed yesterday in my THT column I try to look at the reasons why certain things are believed. In the case of what I have just written, I am simply wondering out loud why certain elements among baseball's fandom reacts so strongly to certain methods of run scoring.

Oh yeah, I did another column on MSN Canada that I alluded to on Wednesday. It is entitled Florida Sunshine. It has been a busy week--two articles there, two on The Hardball Times and this is my fourth blog post on BDD this week.

If the Blue Jays find a way to tick me off before the weekend is through I may make it nine blasts of synaptic flatulence.

By the way, Bill Baer of Crashburn Alley and here will be joining my favourite Blue Jays shock treatment therapists on their weekly podcast on The Score. They had me on last week and it was a ton of fun. Be sure to check out Drunk Jays Fans on Monday for a link to their podcast and give they and Bill a listen.

Best Regards

John