Take a look at the list of the top-twenty leaders in ERA in Major League Baseball thus far this season and you’ll notice a common theme: a lot of them are young pitchers. Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, Jair Jurrjens, Zack Grienke, Dana Eveland, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks are all 25 years of age or younger and are among the top-twenty leaders in ERA. Additionally, Volquez, Lincecum, and Hamels rank in the top ten in strikeouts, signifying that these guys just aren’t scraping by; they’re dominating their Major League competition.
The movement of young and dominating starting pitching appears to be a trend in baseball, as the average age of the top-twenty leaders in ERA has gone or stayed the same every season since 2004, when the average age was 29.25. This season, that average age is 26.45. The number of pitchers age 35 or older in the top-twenty has gone down each season from four in 2004 to none so far in 2008; the number of pitchers age 25 or younger is at eight and there are a few more on the fringe including Fausto Carmona, Greg Smith, Ervin Santana, Felix Hernandez, Scott Olsen, and Jon Lester (click here to download my spreadsheet).
This doesn’t necessarily signify a shift in philosophy among most Major League front offices; it could simply mean that we’re at the end of one generation and at the start of another. After all, the stars of Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and others have burned out. Volquez, Lincecum, Hamels, and others could be the faces of the new generation.
Recently, I urged baseball fans to take a scientific approach to understanding the declining offensive rates, as it has become commonplace to simply attribute that to the stricter drug policies. It seems likely that the new crop of young, dominating pitchers is a factor in holding the offense down.
It’s unlikely that these young pitchers are flukes, either. Volquez, Lincecum, Hamels, Jurrjens, Floyd, and Danks were all trumpeted prospects, and most of them have had success in the Majors prior to this season. Floyd didn’t start off his career well in Philadelphia but appears to have found his niche (though I remain skeptical), and Eveland wasn’t as big as the others but Baseball America did list him as the Milwaukee Brewers’ #7 overall prospect in 2005. Zack Greinke, as we’re all aware of, had some issues with social anxiety disorder and didn’t rebound until he was moved to the bullpen last season.
There’s more to come, too. Today, we saw Clayton Kershaw make his Major League debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing only two runs on five hits and a walk while striking out seven in six innings. Former heralded Detroit Tigers prospect Andrew Miller – now a Florida Marlin – overcame early season struggles as he has put up a 1.44 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his last four starts (25 innings). The Brewers’ Yovani Gallardo appears to be headed for big things if he can stay healthy. Boston’s Clay Buchholz already has a no-hitter to his name and if he can deflate his walk rate, could be a perennial Cy Young candidate. The Tampa Bay Rays have a bunch of pitchers on the horizon including 2007 #1 draft pick David Price.
Despite the complaints of a “juiced” baseball, smaller ballparks, and performance-enhancing drugs that are perpetually one step ahead of the policies, we might be on the precipice of a pitching-dominated generation of baseball players.