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View Article  Fish In a Barrell

Dave Hollander seems to think that Cliff Floyd is Mr. Magic when it comes to baseball: "wherever Cliff Floyd goes, his teams win." Now, kudos for him for trying to mount evidence for this as he reels of a string of facts that I suppose were supposed to be convincing: EG, "George W. Bush was re-elected and three years later the Giants won the Super Bowl!" He wraps this fine argument up in what is becoming an industry standard: the "Bill James Can't Measure This" article.

Now Bill James doesn't need a defense from me. If someone is capable of defending himself in print, it's James. But I do every now and then like to do something I call "Sabermetric drive bys." It's like Sabermetrics but without all of the double checking and hard work. It's a bunch of numbers that generally get the point across well enough so that everyone can move on.

Cliff Floyd has played 1,555 games in his career. A simple way to check whether "wherever Cliff Floyd goes, his teams win" is to simply multiply his team's winning percentage that year by the number of games he played. Yes you could check his team's record in games he played, but that's more work than I'm willing to do over this.

Anyway when you do this, Floyd's lifetime record goes 765-790. So yes wherever he goes his teams do win, they also lose and slightly more often.

Now I'm sure there's plenty of ways to try and argue around that all the losses he was a part of were someone else's fault and all the wins were due to his single handed determination. But if Floyd's magical winning mojo is responsible for the Marlins in 1997 (where he was so crucial to the team's success they let him bat twice in the postseason), why the hell did he fall down on the job in 1998 when they lost 108 games? What kind of apathetic slacker is he? Hell the Marlins never finished above .500 again for the duration of his tenure. Those 66 games in 1997 must have drained him of all of his magic dust.

He moved on to the Red Sox for half a season where they played well and didn't make the playoffs. That offseason Floyd left and they hired me. They just missed the World Series the next year and won it the year after. So my magic winning dust is available to the highest bidder. The next year he moved to the Mets where due to Cliff's leadership, they went from 75-86 to 66-95. Apparently Cliff was still recuperating his magic win dust supplies from six years ago and couldn't pitch in just yet. Nor the next year at 71-91. Eventually though he rounded up enough of it to get the Mets over .500 for the next three years and the playoffs in 2007. Apaprenlty he now has a large supply since unlike in 1997, he has enough to magically turn the Devil Rays into winners.

I think people still think that guys like Bill James are arguing that you should listen to them and not someone else. What they are actually arguing is that you should look at the facts as dispassionately as possible, and let the facts determine your opinion on the matter. On Base Percentage is not a better indicator of run scoring than Batting Average because some egghead says it is. It's a better indicator of run scoring because, when you look at the facts, they so overwhelmingly demonstrate that it is. Guys like Hollander can pretend that's what they're doing, but they're really doing is coming up with an opinion and trying to find support for it somewhere in the numbers. As the saying goes, using statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post, for support rather than illumination.

View Article  Adrian Gonzalez: Buried in the Ballot
Maybe it's because he plays the majority of his games out West, where box scores are posted long after much of the baseball populous in the East or Midwest has gone to sleep. It could be because he plays for a fourth place team that finds itself nine games under .500, with its No. 1 and 2 hurlers shelved on the disabled list. It just might be a global conspiracy that goes higher up than you even knew existed. Whatever the reason is, Padres first baseman Adrian Gonzalez is having a monster year and almost nobody is acknowledging it.

Going into tonight’s (Tuesday’s) contest Gonzalez is tied for second place on the MLB RBI leader board (with 56), is tied for fourth on the National League homerun list (17… seven at ever-vast Petco), is tied for fifth in the N.L. (76) and has managed to counter his power numbers with an average (.292) that is flirting with .300. Yet, the 26-year-old has failed to even crack the top five in All-Star votes among N.L. first baseman.

Of those top five - Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder – I consider only the first three to have played legitimate All-Star caliber baseball. Howard, with his .214 average in tow, still trails Gonzalez in every significant category (to most casual All-Star voters) except walks. And even this Wisconsinite can tell you Prince is off pace from last season, let alone paling to what Gonzalez has done to date.

Perhaps a more indicative stat of this Friar’s 2008 proficiency is a glance at the Padres lineup card. Unlike those other five names (with the possible exception of Pujols) - who have the protection of past MVPs, perennial All-Stars, Rookies of the Year and 20/20 players – Gonzalez hits between Brian Giles who is on the down side of his career and is hitting a fairly empty .308, and the .268 AVG/ .311 OBP that is Kevin Kouzmanoff. Gonzalez is being pitched around and is still putting up admirable numbers.

On the tenth of June he is on pace for 42 HR, 139 RBI and 189 hits. Though unlikely he’ll keep that pace, Gonzalez – if healthy - is still likely to match his 30 HR, 100 RBI, 182 hit 2007 line.

Did I mention these stats and N.L./MLB tops come after last week, arguably his worst week of the season that found him going 6 for 25 (.240) with just one walk, two RBI and a single run?

I don’t really look on All-Star festivities with much luster, but I do consider it, if anything, a forum ideally put in place to reward players for their skill and accomplishment during that particular half-season plus of play. Unfortunately, it seems to be socially considered a means of exalting the game’s most recognizable names and fan-favorites and bestowing sometimes unfit honors to players who have not presently played at the level of an All-Star.

He may play for a team I don’t follow, much less have the ability to watch, and he might lack a name that will sell as many seats as others of his position, but I believe Adrian Gonzalez should be appropriately acknowledged for the type of season he’s had – an All-Star season.
View Article  Short Hops: Lee Elia, Pudge and Sir Sidney
...The heads have started to roll in Seattle as the Mariners fired their hitting coach Jeff Pentland yesterday. The Mariners are next to dead last in the American League in hitting, and GM Bill Bavasi hopes the change will improve the lack luster offense of the worst team in the American League. The Mariners promoted Lee Elia who was a special instructor with the M's to the position that Pentland held.
"Jeff has an excellent and proven track record, and those of us who have worked with him are well aware he knows hitting," Bavasi said. "Unfortunately, we have consistently, and for an extended period, underperformed at the plate and we are hopeful that a different voice might help the situation."
To me this seems more like a ceremonial move than anything, I mean if they aren't hitting now what makes you so sure Elia is going to get the job done?

...Speaking of changes, there are changes behind the dish in Detroit. Manager Jim Leyland has decided to platoon Ivan Rodriguez with Brandon Inge in hopes of getting the 36 year-old catcher some rest and with Pudge's contract up at the end of the year, this maybe a tryout to see if Inge can be the catcher of Detroit's future.

...Since their collapse at the end of last year, the New York Mets have been..well pretty mediocre and it seems that their GM agrees.
“Well, .500 is not acceptable,” Minaya said. “For me, it’s not acceptable because we’re better than that. It’s not so much about the investment. It’s about what this team is about and what this team, talent-wise, is.”
So how long before the NY media starts in on the "Willie Randolph" must go bandwagon..again?

...The press cycle hasn't stopped on Sidney Ponson. Kevin Sharrington of the Dallas Morning News reports that Sir Sidney challenged manager Ron Washington to release him. Well I guess you get what you ask for...
View Article  Miguel Olivo: Hacking His Way to a Better Tomorrow
One of the most intriguing players on my recently adopted team is familiar to me through his work with the Padres a few years back. In 2005, when Ramon Hernandez went down to injury, the Padres picked up Miguel Olivo from Seattle for a bucket of balls. Olivo provided an unexpected spark on offense and performed well (if a bit inattentively at times) behind the dish.

After Hernandez bolted for the ridiculously green pastures of Baltimore (4 years guranteed for a catcher entering his thirties -- why didn't I think of that?), the Pads had hoped to keep Olivo in the fold. Based on his spotty track record, though, they were willing to offer only a minor-league deal, so Olivo took his services to Miami, where the distinction between major- and minor-leaguers is a little fuzzier.

After two mostly undistinguished seasons with the Marlins, Olivo came to Kansas City, where he unexpectedly has blossomed as John Buck's nomimal backup. Although Buck is the starter, Olivo has garnered almost equal playing time thanks to a surprising display of power.

What is most fun about Olivo is this: In his career, which now spans nearly 600 games and more than 2000 plate appearances, he has almost as many home runs as walks. And if it weren't for an early stretch of "plate discipline," when he was still mastering the art of hacking at everything, Olivo would be there. As a rookie with the White Sox in 2003, Olivo drew 19 walks but knocked only six homers. Since then, he's walked 56 times and hit 62 balls out of the yard.

If you want to see something that is extremely difficult to sustain, check out Olivo's record since 2005:

Miguel Olivo, 2005-2008
YearPAHRBBSO
20052819880
2006452169103
20074691614123
20081568540
Total13584936346

Do you know how hard that is? Well, neither do I, but I'm sure it's really hard. Olivo's total line for that stretch is .247/.273/.424. This isn't great, but it's a heckuva lot more useful than you'd expect from a guy who has demonstrated no ability to differentiate balls from strikes.

Ordinarily I would suggest more patience, but Olivo tried that earlier in his career and it didn't suit him. Guess he might as well just keep hacking...
View Article  Baseball Transactions - Monday
Cleveland    
Asdrubal Cabrera - Optioned to Buffalo (AAA).
Josh Barfield - Recalled from Buffalo (AAA).
    
Los Angeles Anaheim    
Darren O'Day - Recalled from Salt Lake (AAA).
Chris Bootcheck - Forearm injury, 15-day DL.
    
Los Angeles Dodgers
Chin-Lung Hu - Optioned to Las Vegas (AAA).
    
Milwaukee    
Hernan Iribarren - Recalled from Nashville (AAA).
Rickie Weeks - Sore left knee, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 7th).
    
Minnesota    
Alexi Casilla - Missed 1 game (back injury).
    
St. Louis    
Adam Wainwright - Finger injury, 15-day DL.
    
Washington    
Dmitri Young - Missed 3 games (flu).
Tyler Clippard - Recalled from Columbus (AAA).
View Article  News & Notes: Church's lingering concussion effects put him on DL, the Ponson watch and more

Mets outfielder Ryan Church has not been the same since colliding with Yunel Escobar's knee on May 20 and now will get an opportunity to rest to try to overcome the lingering effects from the concussion he suffered three weeks ago.

The Mets placed the outfielder on the 15-day disabled list after Church's play was limited over the last three weeks to just eight games.  Church has not felt 100% since the injury and is 4-for-19 since the concussion.  The stay on the DL is retroactive to June 6 -- Church played at San Diego on June 5 and went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.

There is potential good news for the Mets as both Moises Alou and Marlon Anderson could return to the team pending a successful workout before Tuesday's game at Shea Stadium according to Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News.


Sidney Ponson will soon be available to all 30 Major League teams but it is doubtful he will return to any of his previous stays.  That list includes his most recent team -- the Texas Rangers -- who designated him for assignment for the purposes of giving him his unconditional release.  Also, add his other former teams -- the Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Saint Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins -- as unlikely stops with all of those franchises being too familiar with his baggage.  That leaves 24 possibilities for a player the Rangers deemed more trouble than he's worth.

If you are keeping score at home, make that 23 possibilities.  According to Jose De Jesus Ortiz of the Houston Chronicle, the Houston Astros have no interest in pursuing the talents of Ponson despite his ability to fill a need in their starting rotation.  The 31-year-old righty will have to overcome his deplorable image of a disruptive clubhouse influence, self before team attitude and occasional off-the-field distraction if he wants to pitch in the Major League again.  With an 86-102 career record in 268 games and a 4.90 ERA, it will be interesting to see if Ponson's free agency draws much interest on the open market.  He has yet to play more than 15 games for any franchise with the exception of the Baltimore Orioles.


The injured middle finger that caused Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright to leave Saturday's game will require a stop on the 15-day disabled list to recover from.  Wainwright was placed on the DL on Monday after a doctor's examination diagnosed Wainwright with a sprained finger which needs rest to heal.

Wainwright became the 10th Cardinals pitcher to join the DL and there has been no announcement by the Cardinals on who will replace him in the starting rotation on Thursday.

All the news was not bad for the Cardinals on Monday.  Outfielder Rick Ankiel was medically cleared to play in tonight's game in Cincinnati.  In addition, the team expects starting pitcher Joel Pineiro to return from his trip to the DL from a groin injury this week and could possibly be available to take Wainwright's spot in the rotation.  Also, Todd Wellemeyer will return to the starting rotation after suffering an elbow injury in his start on Thursday.


Not all the news was good on Monday night in Cincinnati's 9-4 win over the Marlins for the Reds.  On the night of Ken Griffey Jr.'s historic 600th home run, the Reds lost Jerry Hairston Jr. when he fractured his left thumb sliding into second base on a successful steal attempt in the first inning.  Hairston is expected to miss two to four weeks.

Hairston reached first on a single, stole second and third base and scored on Griffey's 600th home run but was removed from the game after returning to the dugout due to the injury to his thumb.  After an examination, it was determined that Hairston's thumb was fractured and after the game, Reds officials announced Hairston should miss two to four weeks.

Hairston is the third shortstop to succumb to injury and joined Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger on the DL.  The good news for the Reds is Keppinger's expected return this week.  Hairston heads to the DL with a .336 average in 40 games and has played every position but first base and catcher for the team.


One day after giving up a walk-off grand slam to Oakland's Mark Ellis, Angels reliever Chris Bootcheck was placed on the 15-day disabled list for the second time this season and replaced by reliever Darren O'Day from Triple-A Salt Lake.

Bootcheck's injury was not one sustained to his neck as it snapped around to watch Ellis' blast leave the park but a strained right forearm revealed in an MRI taken on Monday.  Bootcheck missed the first 19 games of the season with a left oblique strain.  Since returning, he was 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA.

For O'Day, it is his second stay with the Major League club and he will step into Bootcheck's role as long reliever.  Due to injuries, O'Day was on the Opening Day roster and in 21 innings went 0-1 with a 3.43 ERA.  Since being sent down to Salt Lake, O'Day was 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 games.


The return of Ronnie Belliard from the 15-day disabled list cut Tyler Clippard's first Major League stint with the Washington Nationals to a few hours.  Clippard started for the Nationals against the Giants on Monday and was immediately optioned to Triple-A Columbus at the conclusion of the game.

Belliard adds some depth at second and third base for the Nationals.  Before his left calf strain, Belliard played 26 games (17 as a starter) and hit .194 with two home runs and nine RBI in 67 at-bats.

Clippard did not fare well in his first outing with the Nationals -- he picked up the loss after throwing 4 1/3 innings and allowing three runs.


32-year-old starting pitcher Brian Lawrence moved one step closer to a return to the Major League when the Atlanta Braves purchased his contract from the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic League on Monday.  The Braves assigned Lawrence to Triple-A Richmond with the hope that Lawrence can prove he has the ability to pitch at the Major League level.

Lawrence missed all of 2006 after shoulder surgery and joined the Mets in 2007.  He pitched well enough at Triple-A New Orleans for the Mets to give him a shot at the Major League level last season but he struggled in six starts with a 1-2 record and a 6.83 ERA.

The Mets did not bring Lawrence back and he signed a Minor League contract with the Kansas City Royals prior to the start of the 2008 season but was released before the start of the season.  In his career, Lawrence is 50-63 in 168 games with a 4.19 ERA. 

 

View Article  News & Notes: Bradley/Crede, Chipper named Players of the Week
Texas' Milton Bradley and Chicago's Joe Crede were named American League Co-Players of the Week along with Atlanta's Chipper Jones in the National League for the week ending June 8.

For the first time in his career, Rangers DH/outfielder Milton Bradley was recognized as Player of the Week after hitting .478 with a 1.261 slugging percentage.  He was 11-for-23 with three doubles, five home runs, nine RBI and 12 runs scored in seven games.  He ended the week on a six-game hitting streak.

Bradley shared the weekly award in the AL with Chicago's Joe Crede who picked up the award for the third time in his career.  Crede hit .611 with two doubles, four home runs, nine runs scored and 12 RBI.  He had the highest slugging percentage in the American League at 1.566.

Despite an injury that sidelined him on Sunday, Chipper Jones picked up NL Player of the Week honors for his performance last week, highlighted by his 399th, 400th and 401st career home runs.  Jones raised his season average to .420 after hitting .579 last week which led the NL.  He also led the NL with a .652 on-base percentage and 1.105 slugging percentage. 

View Article  Short Stops Around the Majors for June 9, 2008
  • Luis Rivas reached base 3 times and drove in 2 runs, and Zach Duke pitched 6 solid innings as the Pirates upset the Diamondbacks, 5-3. Mark Reynolds doubled twice and homered for Arizona.
  • Miguel Olivo had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI, and Jose Guillen doubled and hit a game winning homer off of Mariano Rivera in the top of the 9th inning to send the Royals to a 3-2 victory over the Yankees. Luke Hochevar tossed 6 strong innings for Kansas City. Alex Rodriguez hit a 2-run home run, and Mike Mussina gave up just 2 runs in 8 innings for New York.
  • Orlando Cabrera went 4-for-5, and Nick Swisher walked twice, hit 2 home runs, and drove in 3 as the White Sox rallied to win their 7th straight, a 7-5 victory over the Twins. Michael Cuddyer had 2 hits and 3 RBI, and Justin Morneau collected 3 hits and scored twice for Minnesota.
  • Ryan Garko homered and drove in 4 runs, and Kelly Shoppach added a 2-run home run as Cliff Lee and the Indians defeated the Tigers, 8-2. Placido Polanco went 4-for-5 for Detroit.
  • Jarrod Washburn allowed one run in 6 innings, Jose Vidro launched a 2-run homer, and Miguel Cairo squeezed in the winning run in the top of the 10th inning as the Mariners edged the Blue Jays, 3-2. Alex Rios had 3 hits for Toronto.
  • Randy Winn singled, doubled, walked, and drove in 2 runs, and Matt Cain yielded just one run over 6 1/3 innings as the Giants held on to beat the Nationals, 3-2. Lastings Milledge walked twice, doubled, and scored 2 runs for Washington.
  • Paul Bako hit 2 home runs and had 5 RBI, and Edinson Volquez pitched well enough to notch his 9th victory of the season, but the big story of the night was Ken Griffey Jr.'s 600th career home run as the Reds hammered the Marlins, 9-4. Number 600 for Junior came off Mark Hendrickson in the 1st inning with one on and one out.
  • Dioner Navarro went 4-for-5 with 2 doubles, a home run, and 4 RBI, and Evan Longoria doubled, homered twice, drove in 3 runs, and scored 3 runs as the Rays routed the Angels, 13-4. Vlad Guerrero and Gary Matthews Jr. each went 4-for-4 for Los Angeles.

Monday's Scoreboard

American League

National League

Final

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

R

H

E

Kansas City «

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

1

3

8

1

NY Yankees

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

6

0

W:Y.Yabuta(1-0) L:M.Rivera(2-2) S:J.Soria (14)
HR: KAN- M.Olivo (8), J.Guillen (11) NYY- A.Rodriguez (10)

 

Final

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

R

H

E

Minnesota

0

0

0

3

2

0

0

0

0

5

11

1

Chicago WSox «

0

1

0

1

0

2

3

0

X

7

11

1

W:M.Thornton(2-1) L:M.Guerrier(3-2) S:B.Jenks (15)
HR: MIN- None CWS- P.Konerko (8), N.Swisher 2 (8)

 

Final

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

R

H

E

Cleveland «

3

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

8

6

1

Detroit

0

0

0

2

0

0