Coffee tea or cyanide?
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Where to start?
On May 18 last year, I wrote an article on the Hardball Times entitled Autopsy of a Losing Skid that dealt with a miserable 5-15 run that was largely the result of injuries to the club. Well, the Jays may do one better with their current 4-14 run. They might manage to fall lower than the nadir of 2007 with a loss tonight.
Let's do a quick and dirty breakdown of the two skids:
2007: .244/.318/.410; 24 HR, 19 GiDP, 5.74 ERA
2008: .237/.324/.361; 12 HR, 20 GiDP, 4.43 ERA
Just a sidebar note, at this time last year the Jays hit into 55 double plays and are sitting at 86 this year.
What’s scary about the hitting is that in 2007 the Jays gave a lot of at bats to Royce Clayton, John McDonald and Jason Smith (as well as a struggling Adam Lind) whereas the ’08 club is missing only Aaron Hill.
EEP!
What makes this particularly galling is that many will tell you that walk off losses have minimal effect on a team’s mindset yet the Jays were 20-9 in May going into the last game of the month. They are 4-14 since and have gone from red hot to ice cold and yet the demarcation point was the back to back walk off losses to the Angels on May 31-June 1.
You can give me all the numbers you want on this phenomenon but the Jays have been a different team. Before the losses to Anaheim, Toronto was hitting .275/.340/.397 and had a 2.91 ERA--the hitting and slugging dropped almost 40 points and the ERA rose by a run-and-a-half with no physical reason as to why.
Adding to this, it was said that June would be a good month for the Jays due to a soft schedule.
If you haven’t watched the Jays (lucky you) then I strongly suggest you take whatever numbers you have (regarding the effects of walk off wins and losses) with a grain of salt since observation does count. Over the last 18 games, the Jays have scored four runs or less 12 times, and three or fewer 10 times, left 10 or more runners on base eight times (146 in all), hit into 20 double plays and struck out 116 times. They’re hitting .184 with RISP, slugging just .272 and if you take away the ninth inning of the third game of the series in Milwaukee (where they scored six runs on a two-run HR and a grand slam) those totals drop to .170 (BA) and .220 (SLG). Added into all this are six losses in the other team’s final at bat--if you don’t think that doesn’t make the pitching staff think “It doesn’t matter how well we pitch--it won’t be enough” then clearly you think that the game has been segregated with only cyborgs and automatons allowed in MLB with home sapiens being denied entry (call it the "epidermis line").
It’s called a snowball effect where one group’s poor performance becomes contagious.
A final note on this offensive ineptitude--the Jays had 24 PA with the bases loaded and batted .190/.292/.429 with 12 runs scored. That might not sound so bad but most of that damage occurred over just two innings: the seventh inning of the game against the Yankees on June 3 (two doubles, a walk, a sac fly for six runs) and the Joe Inglett’s grand slam in the ninth inning on June 19 in Milwaukee. This left the Jays with one hit and two walks in the 19 other bases-loaded situations during this streak giving them a .058/.158/.058 line and two runs scored.
EEP!
My feelings on the whole John Gibbons’ firing/Cito Gaston hiring can be read on Monday on MSN Canada. While I think it’s a cheap P.R. stunt to give J.P. Ricciardi (the guy who should‘ve gotten canned) a chance to extract his foot from his mouth after making a dunnass of himself I think it may pay some dividends. To wit:
If there’s a team that’s too patient at the plate it’s the Toronto Blue Jays. ESPN Insider’s “Inside Edge” (subscription) has charted that the Jays have swung at the fewest pitches in the AL both in total and in hitter’s counts (thanks to our own Jon Hale and owner of the web's most criminally underrated blog: “The Mockingbird“ for pointing this out). Most hitters view 2-0 and 3-1 counts or the first pitch of an at bat with multiple runners on base as opportunities to get a fat pitch to drive. Jays’ batters view them as opportunities to get the count to 3-0, walk, or hope the pitcher misses with the fastball so they can get ahead 1-0 in order to draw a walk with runners on base with 2-0 and 3-1 counts as stops along the way.
Gaston believes in intelligent aggression at the plate--that when you get into hitter’s counts you look for a ball to turn on rather than trying to get one ball closer to a walk. It may well be just the tweak the Jays need at the plate.
Their approach has put them into position where they cannot get productive outs with a man on third and less than two out, even worse, Toronto is hitting .254./.309/.373 with a man on third and less than two out and the other 13 teams average .351/.442/.521.
Still, Ricciardi needs to upgrade the offense, the Jays have the worst combination of left fielders in the AL (.225/.306/.302 batting/on base/slugging average with two HR--second worst is Cleveland: .258/.327/.387 with six HR) plus the DH have the second-worst batting average (.214) and third worst slugging average (.370) in the league--positions managers count on to provide offense. Brad Wilkerson
Final thoughts: I won’t exhale regarding Roy Halladay until I see him dealing again so get better Roy! I’ve heard that Adam Lind has been promoted to the big club yet haven’t seen any official confirmation--but here’s hoping and of course best wishes to John Gibbons and thanks for giving us his very best--he deserves another shot, preferably a team with a competent GM. He exited with class and I do not blame him for the Jays’ woes. Of course, welcome back Cito--I was a vocal critic of his at the end of his tenure with the Jays but I am a huge fan of the man himself. He gets a clean slate and my best wishes as the Blue Birds’ new/old skipper.
Best Regards
John