Was Gary Denbo the cause of the Jays limp lumber?

I agree with the Drunks and enjoy Mike Wilner's take on the Blue Jays. I do not always agree with him but that has never been a prerequisite for my being a fan of somebody's work.

If you don't know who Wilner is--he hosts JaysTalk on the FAN 590 and is part of the Blue Jays’ criminally underrated radio team that includes Jerry Howarth and Alan Ashby. Before Ashby, there was the unforgettable Tom Cheek (RIP) who uttered the memorable call “Touch ‘em all Joe! You’ll never hit a bigger home run in your life!!”

We miss you Tom. I had the privilege of meeting both he and Jerry Howarth (albeit on separate occasions) once and one day I may to a post about it. Suffice it to say, Cheek was a towering figure--at least 6’6” and maybe 6’7”.

But I’m digressing ... again.  

Obviously, I read Wilner’s blog and in the comments section I founding this gem (I have added a bit):

Year     BA   OBP  SLG
1996:   .288/.360/.436   5.38 R/G   100 OPS+
1997:   .287/.362/.436   5.50 R/G   108 OPS+
1998:   .288/.362/.460   5.96 R/G   117 OPS+
1999:   .282/.364/.453   5.56 R/G   110 OPS+
2000:   .277/.354/.450   5.41 R/G   104 OPS+
2001:   .267/.334/.435   4.99 R/G   100 OPS+
2002:   .275/.354/.455   5.57 R/G   114 OPS+
2003:   .271/.356/.453   5.38 R/G   115 OPS+
2004:   .268/.353/.458   5.54 R/G   112 OPS+
2005:   .276/.355/.450   5.47 R/G   115 OPS+
2006:   .285/.363/.461   5.74 R/G   112 OPS+
2007:   .290/.366/.463   5.98 R/G   118 OPS+

These are the offensive totals for the New York Yankees. Now find the year with the lowest SLG, the lowest R/G, the lowest BA/OBP and the lowest OPS+.

Found it? Yup--all came in 2001.

While they won the pennant that year, league average for hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP) was .268/.351/.421 the Yankees went .255/.337/.412.

O.K. so what’s the big deal about 2001 anyway? Well, the Bronx Bombers hired Gary Denbo as their hitting coach that year. It was his only year in that role with the Yankees.

Also of note, when Denbo was the minor league hitting coordinator (beginning in 1997), in 1999 the Yankees hit 193 HR, in 2000 they hit 205 HR, the year he was with the parent club they hit 203 HR and he was gone. After that the Yankees hit 223, 230, 242 and 229 HR from 2002-2005. I’m not sure whether this is a legitimate data point but it is food for thought.

On THT last week I wrote an article that showed how far below league norms most of the regulars were hitting--especially with RISP. I stated:

The Blue Jays are getting .258/.328/.359; 4 HR 29 RBI production out their No. 3 hitters (the AL average is .264/.350/.430; 10 HR 41 RBI) and are receiving .272/.344/.416; 7 HR 34 RBI production from the cleanup spot (AL: .275/.352/.445; 10 HR 41 RBI). How bad is that? Well, a league-average eight-hole hitter hits about as well as a Blue Jays three-hole (hitter) and an AL average 6-7 hitter (somewhere between those two averages) is what the Jays are getting from their cleanup spot. Put another way, take two hitters from the bottom third of an AL average team and that’s what Toronto is using 3-4 in the lineup.

Getting back to the analogy used at the beginning—several people dying within a short time period may be coincidence, but when it keeps happening it becomes obvious something else is at play. Random variations in things like hitting with RISP/clutch hitting and the like happen at times. However, what are the odds that almost the entire lineup suffers from the same malady at precisely the same time? ... In big situations the Jays strike out, hit ground balls at infielders, lazy fly balls and pop ups. To use one example, the Blue Jays are hitting .215/.256/.446 with the bases loaded, while the other 13 teams in the AL are batting .300/.362/.467. With RISP the Jays are hitting .233/.327/.325 with 32 GIDP; the other 13 AL teams are batting .269/.365/.412 averaging about 20 GIDP.

That’s not a slump—that’s a disease. A disease of collective ineptitude.

In the article I used the analogy of a well with poisonous water. Something that affected pretty much everyone. When something like that occurs it’s generally not a coincidence but there’s a root cause behind it. Yes, it could be that the Yankees sub par (by their standards) offensive season between 1996-2007, not to mention being below league average in hitting with RISP with Denbo as hitting coach is a coincidence, but what if it happens again?

The Jays’ offense underachieved in 2007 and most felt it would rebound a bit this year with Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay healthy coupled with Alex Rios and Aaron Hill’s continued progress. However it completely bottomed out this year--the same year that Denbo became hitting coach.

That’s too much of a coincidence.

Getting back to Wilner for a moment, he’s skeptical that a batting coach can have that much influence on a team but obviously I disagree. Two teams underachieve offensively, two teams below league average with RISP, both teams were the only ones to employ Denbo as a major league hitting coach … is there a pattern?

I’m guessing yes.

Best Regards

John  

Arizona    
Alex Romero - Optioned to Tucson (AAA).
Eric Byrnes - Missed 25 games (hamstring).
    
Atlanta    
Yunel Escobar - Missed 1 game (hip flexor).
    
Florida    
Jai Miller - Optioned to Albuquerque (AAA).
    
Kansas City    
Mark Grudzielanek - Back injury, day-to-day.
Jeff Fulchino - Optioned to Omaha (AAA).
Joel Peralta - Recalled from Omaha (AAA).
    
Milwaukee    
Mike Cameron - Missed 4 games (toe injury).
    
NY Mets    
Luis Castillo - Missed 1 game (body soreness).
    
Seattle    
Adrian Beltre - Missed 2 games (finger injury).
Jose Vidro - Cheekbone injury, day-to-day.

It's cliche at this point to poke fun at Jamie Moyer's age, but it's simply remarkablethat a 45-year-old man is baffling professional Major League hitters with a sinkingfastball that barely tops 80 MPH (according to FanGraphs, it's averaging 80.8 MPH).

Honestly, he's not exactly baffling hitters, as his ERA is still kind of highat 4.09 and between 2004 and '07, his ERA+ has topped 100 only once (2006, 104ERA+). Additionally, his strikeout rate, while never high, is even lower thannormal. In 2007 with the Phillies, his strikeout rate was at 6.01 per nine innings,the third-highest of his career; this season, it's at 4.81. His career averageK/9 is 5.37.

So, we've established that he's not throwing anything out there that's too confusingor too fast for the hitters. What makes him successful?

There's a lot of variance in his approach to left-handed and right-handed hitters.Being a lefty himself, he avoids throwing his change-up and instead relies moreheavily on sliders. Using JoshKalk's player card for Moyer, let's take a look at his pitch selections tolefties and righties:
   

	Left-handers	Right-handers
Sinker	41.4%	56.75%
Curve	5.73%	3.66%
Slider	46.18%	14.76%
Change-up	6.69%	24.83%

It's almost a rule of thumb that left-handed pitchers don't throw left-handed  hitters change-ups because of the general area that those hitters like to hit  in, and the direction the change-up breaks. Moyer, since he doesn't throw anything  too hard, knows that his change-up isn't good enough to fool a left-hander,  so he doesn't use it that much. Instead, he uses a lot of sliders, since they  break away from the left-handed hitter.
 
  This approach has worked, as Moyer has held left-handed hitters to a .686 OPS  against him while right-handers are hitting for an .833 OPS.
 
  What I found odd is that left-handers are still hitting home runs off of him  at a higher clip, despite having an overall lower SLG: lefties tag one almost  once every 22 plate appearances; right-handers are homering once every 39.5.  His overall HR/FB is at a normal 13.2%.
 
  Moyer strikes both types out at an identical rate: righties once every 8.15  plate appearances; lefties once every 8-even.
 
  The most startling observation is Moyer's sudden ability to induce ground balls,  which is especially important considering his home ballpark -- the very homer-friendly  Citizens Bank Park. Since 2002, Moyer has scraped a 40% ground ball rate just  once in 2006, and that was 40-even. Last season, it was at 39.4%. This season,  49.2 of his batted balls are of the ground ball variety; conversely, he's had  a 9% decrease in fly balls allowed, from 39.4% in '07 to 30.4% this season.
 
  Why is this important? This season, opposing batters are hitting for a measly  .465 OPS on ground balls and .965 on fly balls.
 
  His home/away splits are polarized. At home, he has a 5.32 ERA; away, he has  a 2.76 ERA. It's something you might expect with a finesse pitcher in a homer-friendly  ballpark, but last season, he had a 4.72 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, which was  lower than his road ERA of 5.25. And in 2006, in his half-season with the Phillies,  he had a 3.98 ERA in three starts in Philadelphia.
 
  There may be some mean-regression with his home/road performances, but overall,  Moyer appears to have simply found an approach that works. Both of the Phillies  catchers -- Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste -- are reputed for calling games and  working well with pitchers, so it's not egregious to suggest that this is the  case. If you buy into a pitcher's performance depending on his catcher, opposing  hitters hit for a .633 OPS when Ruiz catches Moyer (33%); .873 when Coste catches  Moyer (67%).
 
  In his 22nd season with over 3,600 innings under his belt, it's also not crazy  to think that Moyer has used his experience and intellect to his advantage,  especially given all of the great strides in technology that have made scouting  so useful to pitchers.
 
  The last part of Jamie Moyer's value that I'd like to discuss is anecdotal,  so take it for what it's worth. Having watched almost all of the Phillies games  every season, I've seen not only Moyer's starts, but the way Moyer interacts  with his teammates when he's in the dugout. He is almost like another coach,  and not just a pitching coach. One of the Phillies' television broadcasts detailed  how Moyer was helping out a couple of the younger hitters (I forget who, specifically)  with the way they handle their at-bats. After pitching and while his teammates  are batting, Moyer can be seen going over the prior inning with his catcher,  clearing up any miscommunications and going over how they plan to deal with  the scheduled hitters in the next inning. Other times, he'll be talking pitching  with the Phillies' other pitchers. ESPN's  Jerry Crasnick detailed how Moyer mentored Cole Hamels during his rookie  season in 2006.
 
  As much as I hesitate to use and generally dislike arguments that include stuff  you can't measure (intangibles), there's something to be said for Moyer's dual  role as player and coach.
 
  All that said, I think it's evident how valuable Moyer has been and still is  for the Phillies. He's a free agent after the season and most players would  retire; Moyer is a different guy altogether, especially since he doesn't rely  on velocity, which is the biggest thing to decline with age. If he stays healthy,  he might pitch into his 50's if he has the desire. Moyer is 46 in November  which would put him in a six-way tie as the sixth-oldest  pitcher in Major League history. Maybe Vegas will put some odds on him  pitching again next season. I'll put my money on him.

For those of you that haven't heard anything about the Twins since this winter's Johan Santana trade or Torii Hunter's departure, allow me to get you up to date; they're currently playing the hottest baseball in the majors. The same mid-market team that all but mortgaged this season before it even began currently sits in second place of a competitive American League Central, has won eight of its last 10 games, including six consecutive wins - the longest present streak in all of baseball.

As Detroit’s assemblage of players that were widely favored to take over the world has only recently began to overcome the humanity and under-achieving that has plagued much of its early season, as Cleveland is playing their stars out of town, as the White Sox fall prey to their National League neighbor, and as Kansas City… is, ummm, classic Kansas City – the Twins have quietly snuck up the standings and set themself within reasonable striking distance of the division lead. More impressive than the Twins driving headlong into one of baseball’s most respected divisions is the Twins driving headlong into one of baseball’s most respected divisions with the players they have on the roster.

Never renowned for name (excluding the countless forged in the Humphrey Dome now playing for bigger market teams), the Twinkies have relied on some fairly unrecognizable names to help them get to their current position. Case in point, Nick Blackburn. A player who no casual non-Twins fan could’ve named two months ago – if even now – has won his last two starts (both of which occurred during this 8-2 span) that found him going 13 combined innings, surrendering only three runs and a mere 10 hits combined. 

Brian Buscher and his 43 career games (10 this season) has also player huge since seeing time as response to Mike Lamb’s overall ineffectiveness at the plate. The utility infielder is hitting .353 with 12 hits and 12 RBI in 35 plate appearances this season, much of which has come during the recent 6-0 homestand.

Players that have been seemingly written off are pitching in and finally fitting their intended roles. Delmon Young has at least one hit in all but one of the Twins last 10 games and has pitched in a multitude of RBI to account for his absence of homeruns. Livan Hernandez has been resurrected on the field turf, also a winner his last two starts – each to the tune of one run over seven innings. And players kept in the Twin Cities because of their past prowess, like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are again playing in their All-Star forms of old. Morneau has registered a hit in each game of the 8-2 run - 14 hits, 12 RBI, a .350 average and just three strikeouts in frame.

The scalding Twins look to build off their six game winning streak as they travel to face a Padres team that has struggled to win this season and then hosting a (also in their own right) hot Brewers team for another three game set. Then it’s Detroit for and important divisional match up, one that could very well find them building off a first place standing in a division nearly no one predicted them to remain in the conversation, let alone tear through, at this point. It might be obscured by the outdated dome, their unique accumulation of widely-Canadian unknowns, or their manager that doesn’t teem for the media spotlight like so many others in the Midwestern baseball spectrum, but as it stands, the Twins are to be reckoned with… whether you’re aware of it or not.

- Ben Sheets tossed a complete game 4-hitter, Rickie Weeks was on base 4 times, and Mike Cameron hit a 2-run home run as the Brewers shut down the Braves, 4-1.
- Dan Haren allowed just 2 hits over 7 scoreless innings, and Chris Young led the offense with 2 hits and an RBI as the Diamondbacks edged the Red Sox, 2-1.
- John Lackey gave up one earned run through 8 innings, and Erick Aybar and Casey Kotchman each had 2 hits and scored a run to lead the Angels to a 3-2 win over the Nationals. Jason Bergmann pitched 7 strong innings, and Willie Harris tripled and homered for Washington.
- Felix Hernandez hit a grand slam and allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings on the mound, before giving way to a sprained ankle, as the Mariners surprised the Mets, 5-2.
- Jose Guillen doubled, homered, and drove in 2 runs, and Mark Teahen launched a 3-run shot to help the Royals double up the Rockies, 8-4. Brian Bannister yielded just 3 unearned runs on 3 hits in 7 innings. Matt Holliday doubled and hit a home run for Colorado.

Monday's Scoreboard

American League	National League
Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Arizona « 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 6 0 Boston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 4 0 W:D.Haren(8-4) L:J.Beckett(7-5) S:B.Lyon (16) HR: ARI- None BOS- None   Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Colorado 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 0 4 6 0 Kansas City « 4 0 1 0 2 0 0 1 X 8 8 1 W:B.Bannister(7-6) L:J.Francis(3-7) HR: COL- M.Holliday (9) KAN- R.Gload (1), J.Guillen (13), M.Teahen (8)	Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E LA Angels « 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 3 8 1 Washington 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 6 2 W:J.Lackey(5-1) L:S.Rivera(3-4) S:F.Rodriguez (31) HR: ANA- None WAS- W.Harris (4)   Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8