Honestly, he's not exactly baffling hitters, as his ERA is still kind of highat 4.09 and between 2004 and '07, his ERA+ has topped 100 only once (2006, 104ERA+). Additionally, his strikeout rate, while never high, is even lower thannormal. In 2007 with the Phillies, his strikeout rate was at 6.01 per nine innings,the third-highest of his career; this season, it's at 4.81. His career averageK/9 is 5.37.
So, we've established that he's not throwing anything out there that's too confusingor too fast for the hitters. What makes him successful?
There's a lot of variance in his approach to left-handed and right-handed hitters.Being a lefty himself, he avoids throwing his change-up and instead relies moreheavily on sliders. Using
Left-handers | Right-handers | |
Sinker | 41.4% | 56.75% |
Curve | 5.73% | 3.66% |
Slider | 46.18% | 14.76% |
Change-up | 6.69% | 24.83% |
It's almost a rule of thumb that left-handed pitchers don't throw left-handed hitters change-ups because of the general area that those hitters like to hit in, and the direction the change-up breaks. Moyer, since he doesn't throw anything too hard, knows that his change-up isn't good enough to fool a left-hander, so he doesn't use it that much. Instead, he uses a lot of sliders, since they break away from the left-handed hitter.
This approach has worked, as Moyer has held left-handed hitters to a .686 OPS against him while right-handers are hitting for an .833 OPS.
What I found odd is that left-handers are still hitting home runs off of him at a higher clip, despite having an overall lower SLG: lefties tag one almost once every 22 plate appearances; right-handers are homering once every 39.5. His overall HR/FB is at a normal 13.2%.
Moyer strikes both types out at an identical rate: righties once every 8.15 plate appearances; lefties once every 8-even.
The most startling observation is Moyer's sudden ability to induce ground balls, which is especially important considering his home ballpark -- the very homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Since 2002, Moyer has scraped a 40% ground ball rate just once in 2006, and that was 40-even. Last season, it was at 39.4%. This season, 49.2 of his batted balls are of the ground ball variety; conversely, he's had a 9% decrease in fly balls allowed, from 39.4% in '07 to 30.4% this season.
Why is this important? This season, opposing batters are hitting for a measly .465 OPS on ground balls and .965 on fly balls.
His home/away splits are polarized. At home, he has a 5.32 ERA; away, he has a 2.76 ERA. It's something you might expect with a finesse pitcher in a homer-friendly ballpark, but last season, he had a 4.72 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, which was lower than his road ERA of 5.25. And in 2006, in his half-season with the Phillies, he had a 3.98 ERA in three starts in Philadelphia.
There may be some mean-regression with his home/road performances, but overall, Moyer appears to have simply found an approach that works. Both of the Phillies catchers -- Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste -- are reputed for calling games and working well with pitchers, so it's not egregious to suggest that this is the case. If you buy into a pitcher's performance depending on his catcher, opposing hitters hit for a .633 OPS when Ruiz catches Moyer (33%); .873 when Coste catches Moyer (67%).
In his 22nd season with over 3,600 innings under his belt, it's also not crazy to think that Moyer has used his experience and intellect to his advantage, especially given all of the great strides in technology that have made scouting so useful to pitchers.
The last part of Jamie Moyer's value that I'd like to discuss is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth. Having watched almost all of the Phillies games every season, I've seen not only Moyer's starts, but the way Moyer interacts with his teammates when he's in the dugout. He is almost like another coach, and not just a pitching coach. One of the Phillies' television broadcasts detailed how Moyer was helping out a couple of the younger hitters (I forget who, specifically) with the way they handle their at-bats. After pitching and while his teammates are batting, Moyer can be seen going over the prior inning with his catcher, clearing up any miscommunications and going over how they plan to deal with the scheduled hitters in the next inning. Other times, he'll be talking pitching with the Phillies' other pitchers. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick detailed how Moyer mentored Cole Hamels during his rookie season in 2006.
As much as I hesitate to use and generally dislike arguments that include stuff you can't measure (intangibles), there's something to be said for Moyer's dual role as player and coach.
All that said, I think it's evident how valuable Moyer has been and still is for the Phillies. He's a free agent after the season and most players would retire; Moyer is a different guy altogether, especially since he doesn't rely on velocity, which is the biggest thing to decline with age. If he stays healthy, he might pitch into his 50's if he has the desire. Moyer is 46 in November which would put him in a six-way tie as the sixth-oldest pitcher in Major League history. Maybe Vegas will put some odds on him pitching again next season. I'll put my money on him.