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Sheesh.
Ah well … all’s well that ends well but I came up with new cuss words with Brian Tallet’s generosity (4 ER in the eighth) making it look like another late inning heartbreak.
A lot has been made about the Jays newfound success hitting being accomplished against mediocre pitching. In two of their last three games they’ve roughed up Edinson Volquez (4.1 IP 7 R 5 ER) and Tim Hudson (5 IP 6 ER) which is certainly cause for optimism in Toronto.
After consecutive David Purcey debacles resulting in 7.1 IP 9 ER and 11 BB over two starts it was nice to see a solid spot start with one of the fab five unavailable. I feel a little better about Shaun Marcum being out until after the All Star break with John Parrish’s solid 6 IP 1 ER 2 BB 4 K of work. If he logs another decent turn or two perhaps a spot on the roster can be made available and maybe seeing what Jason Frasor or Brian Tallet could fetch in a trade.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s done some solid work for the Jays but Tallet reminds me of a right handed version of Frasor--a good arm and ulcer-inducing results even when they succeed. While B.J. Ryan is good for getting the ol’ stomach acids percolating he generally comes through. Tom Henke was like that at times--he’d make ninth innings interesting before finally putting the game away.
Over the last six games, which included a 4-0 three hit loss Friday night, Toronto is batting .357/.444/.595 and .364 with runners in scoring position. Obviously that won’t stay up there but it provides reasons for hope at any rate. Yes, the newfound Jays aggressiveness will be noted by advanced scouts but let’s give Cito Gaston a little credit. He knows this will happen and will have the batters prepared to make adjustments again
The Jays have a deep hole from which they have to extricate themselves and 80 games to do it in. The Jays need to go 50-30 to finish 89-73 which, while difficult I do not think is unattainable if the pitching holds up. The thing is, what the Jays need is something they have already enjoyed this year--a major hot streak. The Twins have reeled off 10 in-a-row and 13-of-15, the Tigers have won 15-of-19 and Toronto had a 14-4 run in May. There’s no reason with improved hitting that the Jays cannot get hot again. If they do that they’re right back in the wild card hunt.
They’re taking the right approach--just trying to win series one at a time. Winning 2-of-3 is a .667 winning percentage and they need to play .625 ball in the second half to reach 89 wins. They have the right man at the helm in keeping an even keel, there is enough talent in the lineup for a league average or better offense--even with RISP and more than enough pitching if it remains healthy.
I will say this however, they cannot afford another cold streak like they just came off of and Toronto already has a seven and six game losing streak. One more losing streak of that nature and it becomes time to look towards 2009. The 2006 Cardinals had a seven and an eight game losing streak and made the post season in a weak division--the Jays are already trying to buck recent history. Rarely does a pair of losing streaks that length happen to a team that reached the post season.
Finally…
This week on THT I’ve discussed some concerns I have about sabermetrics in the articles I was born a ramblin’ man and A conversation with Bill Baer. Anyway, on Ball-Hype a poster named Bob R. made an excellent point on the science of sabermetrics that I thought I’d mention here: “Perhaps a minor point in the discussion you are having, but I think there is an error in identifying sabermetrics as science. More accurate would be to call it social science. Like economics or sociology et al, it may use a scientific method and rely on statistics, clinical research, model building and the like, but it always remains subject to the vagaries of human behaviour.
That is in no way meant to demean sabermetrics. Polling, for example, has become very reliable since "Dewey Defeats Truman", but it is still less certain than physics or chemistry. If we keep that distinction in mind, we may remain more modest in our assertions and less prone to dogmatism in our pronouncements.”
Wise words indeed and something for all of us to keep in mind.
Best Regards
John
- Jason Kubel had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI, and Joe Mauer doubled and hit a tie breaking homer in the bottom of the 8th to send the Twins to their 10th straight win, a 7-6 decision over the Brewers. Ryan Braun singled and doubled twice, and Corey Hart hit 2 home runs and knocked in 3 for Milwaukee.