TPoSGD: The knot goes behind the left ear...
Thank God for Roy Halladay.
Sixty-five games into the regular season and one thing has become clear--the Blue Jays' offense needs to define itself. It needs to find a role, a plan regarding how they plan to approach run production. Toronto is next to last in home runs in the AL and every team in the majors as at least one player with more HR than the Blue Jays' leader in that department.
Matt Stairs has seven--he is also sixth on the roster in at bats. If J.P. Ricciardi cannot acquire a game-breaking bat then the team has to look for a different approach to run scoring. Jamie Campbell--a Rogers Sportsnet game broadcaster with a disturbing tendency to cheer enthusiastically when the opposing club manages to complete a late comeback--feels that it’s fun that the Jays have to play small ball and that the fans will enjoy it more.
Well, if the Jays were racking up a lot of runs with that approach it certainly is possible--however they are not and it is not (enjoyable).
Over the five previous seasons (2003-2007) the Jays have five players that topped 30 HR in a season and just four hitters that have slugged .500+ (in 145+ games or 500+ AB; these baselines used since I’m considering power that could be counted on for the bulk of a season). Of those nine occurrences four happened last season and only one player accomplishing it remain on the roster (Vernon Wells).
Simply put--the Jays have lacked the personnel to play the power game where a club looks to get on and wait for the three-run jack. Of course, another variation is the OBP/XBH offense where there are always men on base. In 2006-07, J.P. Ricciardi envisioned this approach for the Blue Jays.
Sadly, the Jays lack the personnel for this at the moment in that while they’re seventh in the AL in two-base hits they’re below league average in that category and excluding today’s game are much closer to last (14 doubles above Tampa Bay) than first (42 below Texas).
Certain things are becoming clear--one, while Scott Rolen has been an offensive asset (.302/.373/.463), it looks like his years of 25+ jacks are in the past tense. It may be wise to expect a healthy Rolen to chip in at a Lyle Overbay circa 2005-06 level (.294/.370/.479; 40 doubles, 15-20 HR). Speaking of which, it appears that Overbay is all the way back from his broken hand of last season batting .288/.400/.466 since May 1.
Since both are defensive whizzes at the corners, barring injury, the Jays are set nicely.
I’m beginning to feel that Ricciardi struck gold with Marcos Scutaro; back in the 1990’s Tony Phillips was a manager’s dream--he could man several positions, provide solid defense and wielded a shockingly potent stick. From 1991-96 he batted .282/.402/.422 in 3280 AB without having an everyday position. My frequent trips to the corner of Michigan and Trumbull allowed me to develop a man-crush on Phillips and I was thrilled when Gord Ash picked him up for Toronto in 1998. He didn’t stay long unfortunately but he didn’t disappoint hitting .354/.467/.521 during his stay and I was sad to see him dealt to the Mets.
With the Jays lacking bench strength in recent seasons I always lamented that they could never find another Tony Phillips. Well, it appears they may have done just that as Scutaro has played like Phillips-lite ... solid defense at several positions, getting on base frequently and despite struggling a bit of late has--over the last 15 games--still driven home three more base runners than Alex Rios and hit into five fewer double plays.
Ah yes, what to do about Rios--his swing seems to be improving, its more level, he’s transferring his weight forward a bit better and squaring up on the ball but his head still needs straightening around. Before today’s game, over his prior 37 (games) he has the same number of extra base hits, walks (with 38 K) and GIDP with 10--a living, breathing walking rally-killer. Rios was hitting .210/.271/.274 with RISP, had 11 PA with the bases loaded or second and third and has zero hits (four BB/two intentional). He’s had 41 PA with two or more men on base and is hitting just .195 and one extra base hit (a double) and is slugging .243 with two (or more) on.
Sabermetrics tells us it’s a sample size fluke, my eyes inform me that he’s squeezing the sawdust out of the bat, tightening up and trying to avoid screwing up rather than aggressively looking for a fat pitch to drive. He seems content to let the pitcher control the at bat with RISP by passing on the first pitch regardless of its hitability (today’s new word). If the trend continues, the Jays might have to take measures to clear the fog from his brain.
Vernon Wells hot hitting since coming back from a broken wrist (5-for-7 with a double and HR) is certainly a good indication that there will be no lingering effects from his broken wrist. Of course, seven at bats isn’t much of a sample size but a 2006 version of Wells will be a major boost to the Jays hopes.
Rod Barajas’s hot hitting (.355/.432/.639 since May 1) has been a revelation and between he and Gregg Zaun’s return provides insurance that the Jays will be at least league average or better behind the dish this season--that’s always a welcome level of production for any club’s catching corps.
The biggest question marks are left field, DH and the keystone. The Jays have used eight players in left and only Matt Stairs wields a well-above league average bat (112 OPS+). Overall, the Jays LF are batting .231/.306/.294 with one home run--worst in the AL and 28th in MLB. For the record, average production from the position is .262/.339/.430 with eight HR--no one on the entire Jays roster has the MLB average for four-baggers for the position.
Simply put--it shouldn’t be hard for Ricciardi to upgrade the spot. A major league average left fielder would represent a massive upgrade to the offense and would automatically lead the team in homers. If the Jays are so unconcerned about the hitting from the spot then why on earth not give the position to Adam Lind (.329/.386/.525 in AAA) and leave him there for the rest of the season. I think Lind could better a .231/.306/.294 mark.
Toronto is also getting the 11th worst production from their DH (.222/.328/.362) and again, getting up to league average in that position (.248/.335/.416) would be a solid upgrade and would lead the Jays in home runs with nine. Getting such pathetic production from two positions where hitting is the primary consideration is unforgivable for a competent general manager.
The keystone awaits the return of Aaron Hill who has enjoyed a better second half the last two seasons and some resolution regarding David Eckstein and John McDonald. There’s no shortstop controversy but there should be--if the Jays could improve left field and DH to league average levels they could shore up the pitching and defense by inserting McDonald at short and having two solid utility guys on the bench. However, the Jays’ situational hitting has been so poor this season that it makes little sense to not play Eckstein. The Jays are hitting .238/.331/.333 with RISP (Eckstein: .341/.392/.455); .207/.314/.304 with RISP and two out (Eckstein: .400/.500/.667); and .241/.271/.500 with the bases loaded (Eckstein: .333/.333/.667).
June should be an evaluation month to see how the roster with everybody back (Hill is due to return in a week) produces and a decision made regarding their approach to run scoring in the second half. The Jays are hitting .274/.351/.410 over the last 25 games. If Ricciardi can find a league average bat for left field and let Stairs DH full time there should be enough offense in place to keep the Jays in the thick of things through the end of the season.
Best Regards
John
