On the eve of the scheduled announcement of the 2008 All-Star teams, Joe Hamrahi, Gordon Berger, Bill Baer and Brian Joseph of the Baseball Digest Daily team weigh in on who they think should be selected to play in the 79th All-Star Game at Yankee Stadium on July 15, 2008.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

BDD Founder Joe Hamrahi's Picks

STARTERS

C - Joe Mauer, MIN
1B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS 
2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX
3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS - Michael Young, TEX
OF - Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF - Jermaine Dye, CHI
OF - J.D. Drew, BOS
DH - Milton Bradley, TEX
P - Cliff Lee, CLE

RESERVES

A.J. Pierzinski, CHI (C); Jason Giambi, NYY (1B/DH); Brian Roberts, BAL (2B); Evan Longoria, TB (3B); Mike Lowell, BOS (3B); Aubrey Huff, BAL (3B/DH); Derek Jeter, NYY (SS); Grady Sizemore, CLE (OF); Carlos Quentin, CHI (OF); Magglio Ordonez, DET (OF)

PITCHERS

Joe Saunders, LAA; Justin Duchscherer, OAK; Roy Halladay, TOR; John Danks, CHI; Matt Garza, TB; Felix Hernandez, SEA; Mariano Rivera, NYY; Joakim Soria, KC; Scott Linebrink, CHI; Joe Nathan, MIN; Jonathan Papelbon, BOS; Francisco Rodriguez, LAA

BDD Reporter/Writer Gordon Berger's Picks

STARTERS

C - Joe Mauer, MIN
1B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX
3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS - Michael Young, TEX
OF - Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF - Carlos Quentin, CHI
OF - Bob Abreu, NYY
DH - Milton Bradley, TEX
P - Roy Halladay, TOR

RESERVES

A.J. Pierzinski, CHI (C); Jason Giambi, NYY (1B/DH); Placido Polanco, DET (2B); Dustin Pedroia, BOS (2B); Brian Roberts, BAL (2B); Derek Jeter, NYY (SS); Mike Lowell, BOS (3B); Jermaine Dye, CHI (OF); B.J. Upton, TB (OF); J.D. Drew, BOS (OF); Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (OF)

PITCHERS

C.C. Sabathia, CLE; James Shields, TB; Joe Saunders, LAA; Cliff Lee, CLE; Justin Duchscherer, OAK; John Danks, CHI; Francisco Rodriguez, LAA; Jonathan Papelbon, BOS; Joe Nathan, MIN; Mariano Rivera, NYY; Joakim Soria, KC

BDD Writer Bill Baer's Picks

STARTERS

C - Joe Mauer, MIN
1B - Jason Giambi, NYY
2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX
3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS - Michael Young, TEX
OF - Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF - J.D. Drew, BOS
OF - Grady Sizemore, CLE
DH - Milton Bradley, TEX
P - Cliff Lee, CLE

RESERVES

A.J. Pierzinski, CHI (C); Justin Morneau, MIN (1B); Brian Roberts, BAL (2B); Dustin Pedroia, BOS (2B); Evan Longoria, TB (3B); Joe Crede, CHI (3B); Jhonny Peralta, CLE (SS); Manny Ramirez, BOS (OF); David DeJesus, KC (OF); Carlos Quentin, CHI (OF); Johnny Damon, NYY (OF); Magglio Ordonez, DET (OF)

PITCHERS

Justin Duchscherer, OAK; Felix Hernandez, SEA; Roy Halladay, TOR; Joe Saunders, LAA; John Danks, CHI; Francisco Rodriguez, LAA; Joe Nathan, MIN; Joakim Soria, KC; George Sherrill, BAL; Mariano Rivera, NYY

BDD Reporter Brian Joseph's Picks

STARTERS

C - Joe Mauer, MIN
1B - Kevin Youkilis, BOS
2B - Ian Kinsler, TEX
3B - Alex Rodriguez, NYY
SS - Derek Jeter, NYY
OF - Josh Hamilton, TEX
OF - Carlos Quentin, CHI
OF - J.D. Drew, BOS
DH - Milton Bradley, TEX
P - Cliff Lee, CLE

RESERVES

A.J. Pierzinski, CHI (C); Justin Morneau, MIN (1B); B.J. Upton, TB (2B); Brian Roberts, BAL (2B); Mike Lowell, BOS (3B); Evan Longoria, TB (3B); Michael Young, TEX (SS); Manny Ramirez, BOS (OF); Jermaine Dye, CHI (OF); Jose Guillen, KC (OF); Ichiro Suzuki, SEA (OF)

PITCHERS

Justin Duchscherer, OAK; Joe Saunders, LAA; Mike Mussina, NYY; Vincente Padilla, TEX; Roy Halladay, TOR; Ervin Santana, LAA; Scott Linebrink, CHI; Joe Nathan, MIN; Jonathan Papelbon, BOS: Francisco Rodriguez, LAA; Mariano Rivera, NYY

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Joe Hamrahi's Picks

STARTERS

C - Brian McCann, ATL
1B - Lance Berkman, HOU
2B - Chase Utley, PHI
3B - Chipper Jones, ATL
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF - Pat Burrell, PHI
OF - Matt Holliday, COL
OF - Xavier Nady, PIT
DH - Albert Pujols (1B), STL
P - Edinson Volquez, CIN

RESERVES

Geovany Soto, CHI (C); Russell Martin, LA (C); Adrian Gonzalez, SD (1B); Dan Uggla, FLA (2B); David Wright, NYM (3B); Jose Reyes, NYM (SS); Cristian Guzman, WSH (SS); Ryan Ludwick, STL (OF); Carlos Lee, HOU (OF); Ryan Braun, MIL (OF); Nate McLouth (OF)

PITCHERS

Tim Lincecum, SF; Ben Sheets, MIL; Dan Haren, ARI; Brandon Webb, ARI; Ryan Dempster, CHI; Cole Hamels, PHI; Aaron Cook, COL; Chad Billingsley, LA; Brad Lidge, PHI; Billy Wagner, NYM; Taylor Buchholz, COL

Gordon Berger's Picks

STARTERS

C - Russell Martin, LA
1B - Lance Berkman, HOU
2B - Chase Utley, PHI
3B - Chipper Jones, ATL
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF - Carlos Lee, HOU
OF - Ryan Braun, MIL
OF - Pat Burrell, PHI
DH - Albert Pujols, STL
P - Ben Sheets, MIL

RESERVES

Geovany Soto, CHI (C); Ryan Doumit, PIT (C); Adrian Gonzalez, SD (1B); Mark Teixera, ATL (1B); Ryan Howard, PHI (1B); Dan Uggla, FLA (2B); David Wright, NYM (3B); Aramis Ramirez, CHI (3B); Jose Reyes, NYM (SS); Cristian Guzman, WSH (SS); Ryan Ludwick, STL (OF); Jason Bay, PIT (OF); Matt Holliday, COL (OF)

PITCHERS

Brandon Webb, ARI; Aaron Cook, COL; Edinson Volquez, CIN; Cole Hamels, PHI; Tim Lincecum, SF; Brian Wilson, SF; Brad Lidge, PHI; Kerry Wood, CHI; Billy Wagner, NYM

Bill Baer's Picks

STARTERS

C - Brian McCann, ATL
1B - Lance Berkman, HOU
2B - Chase Utley, PHI
3B - Chipper Jones, ATL
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF - Nate McLouth, PIT
OF - Pat Burrell, PHI
OF - Jason Bay, PIT
DH - Adrian Gonzalez, SD
P - Edinson Volquez, CIN

RESERVES

Geovany Soto, CHI (C); Albert Pujols, STL (1B); Mark Teixera, ATL (1B); Dan Uggla, FLA (2B); David Wright, NYM (3B); Aramis Ramirez, CHI (3B); Jose Reyes, NYM (SS); Carlos Beltran, NYM (OF); Corey Hart, MIL (OF); Ryan Ludwick, STL (OF); Xavier Nady, PIT (OF); Kosuke Fukudome, CHI (OF)

PITCHERS

Tim Lincecum, SF; Ben Sheets, MIL; Dan Haren, ARI; Brandon Webb, ARI; Cole Hamels, PHI; Aaron Cook, COL; Brad Lidge, PHI; Billy Wagner, NYM; Jon Rauch, WSH; Kerry Wood, CHI; Takashi Saito, LA

Brian Joseph's Picks

STARTERS

C - Brian McCann, ATL
1B - Lance Berkman, HOU
2B - Chase Utley, PHI
3B - Chipper Jones, ATL
SS - Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF - Pat Burrell, PHI
OF - Ryan Ludwick, STL
OF - Xavier Nady, PIT
DH - Albert Pujols, STL
P - Tim Lincecum, SF

RESERVES

Geovany Soto, CHI (C); Russell Martin, LA (C); Adrian Gonzalez, SD (1B); Dan Uggla, FLA (2B); David Wright, NYM (3B); Ryan Theriot, CHI (SS); Cristian Guzman, WSH (SS); Matt Holliday, COL (OF); Jason Bay, PIT (OF); Ryan Braun, MIL (OF); Nate McLouth, PIT (OF)

PITCHERS

Edinson Volquez, CIN; Brandon Webb, ARI; Kyle Lohse, STL; Aaron Cook, COL; Ben Sheets, MIL; Cole Hamels, PHI; Ryan Dempster, CHI; Billy Wagner, NYM; Jon Rauch, WSH; Brandon Lyon, ARI; Brad Lidge, PHI

Angles shortstop prospect Hainley Statia made his second trip to the disabled list this year with a strained right hamstring. Los Angeles' eleventh-ranked prospect by Baseball America had come off the disabled list two days earlier with the same injury.

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Yankees right-hander prospect Dellin Betances returned from the disabled list to the Low-A Charleston RiverDogs rotation on Friday. New York's 13th-ranked prospect by Baseball America had not pitched for Charleston since May 26.

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Indians right-hander prospect Frank Herrmann was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo from Double-A Akron. Cleveland’s 26th-ranked prospect by Baseball America joined the Indians' organization as a non-drafted free agent in 2005 after pitching collegiately at Harvard.

The Toronto Blue Jays are fatally flawed. I think it may be time to run up the white flag. Here's the thing, it's pretty common knowledge that the offense struggles in big moments. We documented yesterday how the 2008 Blue Jays' hitters struggle once a runner reaches third base:

Team        BA  OBP  SLG  2B 3B  HR  BB
Royals    .311/.384/.422  15  0   5  32
Blue Jays .206/.328/.304  15  0   6  61
Angels    .295/.400/.421  18  1   8  50
Mariners  .272/.369/.356  19  0   4  42

Just for fun, earlier this week on The Hardball Times I charted Dave Winfield’s totals with (at least) runners on third in 1992:

Sit.         BA    OBP   SLG
--3         .448  .541  .828
1-3         .500  .593  .955
-23         .400  .444  .933
123         .455  .462 1.000
3, lt 2 out .475  .538  .775
 3 2 out    .432  .512 1.054   

(sigh)

But I digress.

I went through the box scores to see how many times the Jays hit below the “Mendoza Line” with RISP this year and in 87 games, they hit less than .200 in 39 of them including 13 0-fers. They are 12-21 in one run games, 18-28 in two run games and at home, they are 0-5 in extra innings. Speaking of which--in 14 extra innings at the Rogers Centre, the Jays are batting .278. However, with RISP in drops to .105 and when they’ve had RISP and less than two out they’re hitting .111 and have stranded 21 base runners.

It has been too long to be considered a fluke and even if it is and they rebound, the team has yet another fatal flaw in the clutch--relief pitching. In my weekly MSN Canada column I discussed how, despite a solid ERA, the Jays’ bullpen loses it when things get tough.

For example, here is the bullpen’s line at home in extra innings:

W-L   ERA  IP  ER   H  BB   K  WHIP
0-5  7.07  14  11  15  15  14  2.14 

So the hitters haven’t been the only problem in extras. Now before you go all sample size on me, rest assured, this is only the tip of the iceberg and there’s a lot more data to come.

The game has evolved in that the starting pitcher’s role has simply become to keep his team in the game through at least six innings. In this regard, the Jays’ starting staff has held up its end of the bargain. It’s up to the bats and the bullpen to bring the game home. For the most part, the relievers’ job begins in the 7-8th innings. Since we’re talking about clutch ability among the bullpen, let’s see how the Jays’ staff stacks up in tie games in the late innings--when they’re needed most:

Team        W-L  ERA   T7   T8   T9
Blue Jays  4-17 3.12  5-7  4-7  4-11

The 3.12 ERA, as I documented on MSN, hasn’t been really useful. How do they stack up against the rest of the AL?

Team       W-L   ERA   T7   T8   T9
White Sox 15-9  2.71  7-8 10-6  6-4
Blue Jays  4-17 3.12  5-7  4-7  4-11
Rays      16-8  3.16 10-4  9-2  6-4
Orioles   15-14 3.23  6-9  6-7  3-6
Athletics 13-9  3.38  4-6  2-5  6-3
Twins     16-10 3.45  6-4  7-4  3-4
Yankees   12-11 3.53  5-6  5-6  3-5
Mariners  10-13 3.74  3-7  4-7  6-1
Royals     9-11 3.89  5-4  4-2  2-4
Angels     8-11 4.02  9-3  7-5  4-5
Red Sox   13-15 4.08  6-5  4-5  4-2
Tigers    14-13 4.35  4-7  6-4  4-5
Rangers   18-18 5.03  7-6  5-4  6-4
Indians    8-16 5.03  4-9  3-12 2-8

Take out the ERA component and the team most resembling the Blue Jays are the Indians who definitely have the worst bullpen in MLB.

Team        W-L    T7   T8   T9
Blue Jays  4-17   5-7  4-7  4-11
Indians    8-16   4-9  3-12 2-8

Is this another statistical fluke, a simple random variation or an anomaly? If it is--then that’s two flukes working against the Jays. What are the odds that a team with an upper-echelon bullpen (insofar as ERA goes) and a slightly worse than league average OPS+ (the Angels have a far worse OPS+) can so vastly underachieve in not just one, but two major clutch categories?

Maybe it’s not an anomaly at all and simply a poorly constructed team that is far worse than the sum of its parts. If you were too look at the players on an individual basis it would be easy to conclude that’s it is a competitive club. However, as a collective unit they’re simply not up to the task. Here is a team that the raw numbers informs us is two BB out of second place in the AL in walks drawn, second in relief ERA and fifth in starter’s ERA (3.75) and not far from second place in the league (Angels: 3.62 ERA) but has the 11th best record in a 14 team league.

The Jays have won 23 of their 41 games by three or more runs, but when the game gets close the Jays generally come up short: 12-21 in one-run games, 18-28 in two run (or less) games, 3-7 in extra innings (0-5 at the Rogers Centre).  

Again, the starting pitching has done its job but they’re rarely around in the crucial late innings. Once the starters are gone and the clutch situations that often decide games arise, the Jays’ roster shows its true colours. Yes, some of it is certainly on the players but it’s up to the organization to create an environment where the players can succeed. Clearly there is an expectation of failure that has crept into the club that manifests itself time and again. You won’t find it in the numbers (save the standings) but you’ll see it on the field.

That falls to the club’s architect--J.P. Ricciardi.

Best Regards

John

- Mike Lowell doubled, hit a home run, and drove in 4 runs, and Kevin Youkilis went 2-for-4 with a triple and 2 RBI as the Red Sox beat the Yankees for the second day in a row, 6-4. Jacoby Ellsbury also had 3 hits for Boston.
- J.J. Hardy went 4-for-5 with a home run and 2 RBI, and Bill Hall singled, doubled, homered, and knocked in 3 runs as the Brewers offense rocked the Pirates, 9-1.
- Erik Bedard gave up one run over 5 innings, and Jose Lopez drove in 2 with a double as the Mariners quieted the Tigers, 4-1.
- Edwin Jackson allowed just one earned run on 4 hits in 8 innings, Carlos Pena homered and drove in 5 runs, and Carl Crawford went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI, a stolen base, and 3 runs scored as the Rays roughed up the Royals, 11-2. Evan Longoria also had 3 hits for Tampa Bay.
- Jack Cust had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI, and Joe Blanton pitched 7 strong innings to lead the A's to a 7-1 win over the White Sox. Wes Bankston and Emil Brown contributed 3 hits apiece for Oakland.
- Tim Hudson put together a solid outing, allowing just one run on 4 hits in 7 innings, and Kelly Johnson blasted a 2-run home run to lead the offense as the Braves beat the Astros, 6-2.
- Geovany Soto went 3-for-3 with a home run, and Carlos Zambrano tossed 6 shutout innings in his return to the mound for Chicago as the Cubs edged the Cardinals, 2-1. Braden Looper was the hard luck loser for St. Louis, giving up just 2 runs in 7 innings. Albert Pujols hit his 300 career home run in the 8th inning off Bob Howry.
- Bronson Arroyo shut down Washington for 6 innings, and Ken Griffey Jr. reached base 3 times and hit a 2-run home run as the Reds blanked the Nationals, 3-0.
- Andre Ethier singled, doubled, homered and drove in 3 runs, and Russell Martin doubled twice, had 2 RBI, and scored 2 runs to lead the Dodgers to a 10-7 victory over the Giants. Nomar Garciaparra added 2 hits and 2 RBI in his return for Los Angeles. Aaron Rowand had 3 hits and 2 RBI for San Francisco.
- Adam Jones and Brandon Fahey each collected 2 hits, 2 RBI, and scored 2 runs, and Freddie Bynum drove in 3 more runs as the Orioles hammered the Rangers, 10-4. Milton Bradley had 2 hits and 3 RBI for Texas.
- Jayson Werth picked up 2 hits and scored the winning run on a Shane Victorino RBI single in the bottom of the 9th as the Phillies walked off with a 3-2 thriller over the Mets. Johan Santana gave up 2 runs in 8 innings but didn't figure in the decision.
- Delmon Young went 3-for-4 with a home run, 4 RBI, and 3 runs scored, and Nick Punto doubled, homered, drove in 4 more, and crossed the plate 3 times to lead the Twins to a convincing 12-3 win over the Indians. Justin Morneau also had 2 hits and 2 RBI for Minnesota while Kelly Shoppach went 3-for-3 with a home run and 2 RBI for Cleveland.
- Jered Weaver threw another strong game for Los Angeles, allowing 2 runs in 7 1/3 innings, and Garret Anderson went 3-for-4 with a home run and 2 RBI as the Angels buried the Blue Jays, 8-2. Howie Kendrick singled, doubled, and drove in 3 runs for Los Angeles as well.
- Cha Seung Baek struck out 7 while allowing just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings, Jody Gerut reached base 3 times, and 5 different San Diego players drove in a run as the Padres hung on to beat the Diamondbacks, 5-1. Dan Haren pitched 7 strong innings but received no support from the Arizona offense.
- In an absolutely incredible game in Colorado, the Rockies came up with your average 18-17 walk-off win over the Marlins. I can't possibly do this game justice with a "short stop" so I'll just post the link to the boxscore Whew...Friday, July 4, 2008 - Rockies 18, Marlins 17

Friday's Scoreboard

 

American League

National League

Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Boston « 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 6 12 0 NY Yankees 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 6 1 W:J.Beckett(8-5) L:D.Rasner(4-7) S:J.Papelbon (25) HR: BOS- M.Lowell (13) NYY- None   Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Detroit 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 Seattle « 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 2 X 4 6 0 W:E.Bedard(6-4) L:K.Rogers(6-6) S:B.Morrow (6) HR: DET- M.Cabrera (12) SEA- R.Ibanez (10)   Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E Texas 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 4 8 0 Baltimore « 1 3 4 0 0 0 0 2 X 10 12 0 W:J.Guthrie(5-7) L:V.Padilla(10-5) HR: TEX- None BAL- None   Final 1 2 3 4