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The Toronto Blue Jays are fatally flawed. I think it may be time to run up the white flag. Here's the thing, it's pretty common knowledge that the offense struggles in big moments. We documented yesterday how the 2008 Blue Jays' hitters struggle once a runner reaches third base:
Team BA OBP SLG 2B 3B HR BBJust for fun, earlier this week on The Hardball Times I charted Dave Winfield’s totals with (at least) runners on third in 1992:
Royals .311/.384/.422 15 0 5 32
Blue Jays .206/.328/.304 15 0 6 61
Angels .295/.400/.421 18 1 8 50
Mariners .272/.369/.356 19 0 4 42
Sit. BA OBP SLG(sigh)
--3 .448 .541 .828
1-3 .500 .593 .955
-23 .400 .444 .933
123 .455 .462 1.000
3, lt 2 out .475 .538 .775
3 2 out .432 .512 1.054
But I digress.
I went through the box scores to see how many times the Jays hit below the “Mendoza Line” with RISP this year and in 87 games, they hit less than .200 in 39 of them including 13 0-fers. They are 12-21 in one run games, 18-28 in two run games and at home, they are 0-5 in extra innings. Speaking of which--in 14 extra innings at the Rogers Centre, the Jays are batting .278. However, with RISP in drops to .105 and when they’ve had RISP and less than two out they’re hitting .111 and have stranded 21 base runners.
It has been too long to be considered a fluke and even if it is and they rebound, the team has yet another fatal flaw in the clutch--relief pitching. In my weekly MSN Canada column I discussed how, despite a solid ERA, the Jays’ bullpen loses it when things get tough.
For example, here is the bullpen’s line at home in extra innings:
W-L ERA IP ER H BB K WHIPSo the hitters haven’t been the only problem in extras. Now before you go all sample size on me, rest assured, this is only the tip of the iceberg and there’s a lot more data to come.
0-5 7.07 14 11 15 15 14 2.14
The game has evolved in that the starting pitcher’s role has simply become to keep his team in the game through at least six innings. In this regard, the Jays’ starting staff has held up its end of the bargain. It’s up to the bats and the bullpen to bring the game home. For the most part, the relievers’ job begins in the 7-8th innings. Since we’re talking about clutch ability among the bullpen, let’s see how the Jays’ staff stacks up in tie games in the late innings--when they’re needed most:
Team W-L ERA T7 T8 T9The 3.12 ERA, as I documented on MSN, hasn’t been really useful. How do they stack up against the rest of the AL?
Blue Jays 4-17 3.12 5-7 4-7 4-11
Team W-L ERA T7 T8 T9Take out the ERA component and the team most resembling the Blue Jays are the Indians who definitely have the worst bullpen in MLB.
White Sox 15-9 2.71 7-8 10-6 6-4
Blue Jays 4-17 3.12 5-7 4-7 4-11
Rays 16-8 3.16 10-4 9-2 6-4
Orioles 15-14 3.23 6-9 6-7 3-6
Athletics 13-9 3.38 4-6 2-5 6-3
Twins 16-10 3.45 6-4 7-4 3-4
Yankees 12-11 3.53 5-6 5-6 3-5
Mariners 10-13 3.74 3-7 4-7 6-1
Royals 9-11 3.89 5-4 4-2 2-4
Angels 8-11 4.02 9-3 7-5 4-5
Red Sox 13-15 4.08 6-5 4-5 4-2
Tigers 14-13 4.35 4-7 6-4 4-5
Rangers 18-18 5.03 7-6 5-4 6-4
Indians 8-16 5.03 4-9 3-12 2-8
Team W-L T7 T8 T9Is this another statistical fluke, a simple random variation or an anomaly? If it is--then that’s two flukes working against the Jays. What are the odds that a team with an upper-echelon bullpen (insofar as ERA goes) and a slightly worse than league average OPS+ (the Angels have a far worse OPS+) can so vastly underachieve in not just one, but two major clutch categories?
Blue Jays 4-17 5-7 4-7 4-11
Indians 8-16 4-9 3-12 2-8
Maybe it’s not an anomaly at all and simply a poorly constructed team that is far worse than the sum of its parts. If you were too look at the players on an individual basis it would be easy to conclude that’s it is a competitive club. However, as a collective unit they’re simply not up to the task. Here is a team that the raw numbers informs us is two BB out of second place in the AL in walks drawn, second in relief ERA and fifth in starter’s ERA (3.75) and not far from second place in the league (Angels: 3.62 ERA) but has the 11th best record in a 14 team league.
The Jays have won 23 of their 41 games by three or more runs, but when the game gets close the Jays generally come up short: 12-21 in one-run games, 18-28 in two run (or less) games, 3-7 in extra innings (0-5 at the Rogers Centre).
Again, the starting pitching has done its job but they’re rarely around in the crucial late innings. Once the starters are gone and the clutch situations that often decide games arise, the Jays’ roster shows its true colours. Yes, some of it is certainly on the players but it’s up to the organization to create an environment where the players can succeed. Clearly there is an expectation of failure that has crept into the club that manifests itself time and again. You won’t find it in the numbers (save the standings) but you’ll see it on the field.
That falls to the club’s architect--J.P. Ricciardi.
Best Regards
John