Proceed with caution with Bedard. Due to a decent 2006 season and an elite '07 season, his value is still extremely high despite not showing anything too impressive in '04, '05, or this season. Last season is aberrant, especially if you take a look at his K/9 rates. Going into '07, Bedard had never put up a K/9 above 8, yet in '07, he skyrocketed it to 10.93. That's nearly a 33% increase!
This season, his numbers are more in line with his career averages, even though he's pitched more than half of his starts in the most spacious ballpark in baseball, Safeco Field. In fact, there is a huge disparity in his home/road splits: Bedard has a 2.35 ERA at home in Seattle, and a 5.73 ERA on the road.
Bedard is having a mediocre season despite a BABIP at its lowest point in his six-year career. There's nothing abnormal with his peripherals other than his sudden conversion to fly ball proneness. In '07, 47.9% of batted balls off of Bedard were of the ground ball variety and 34.8% were fly balls; this season, only 40.3% are ground balls and 42.9% are fly balls. I think it's safe to assume that Bedard altered his pitching style to suit the large area in his home ballpark, and this is why his BABIP is so low -- the expected BABIP on ground balls is a bit higher than on fly balls.
The team believed to be behind the Brewers in the bidding for Sabathia was the Philadelphia Phillies, but it is a widely held notion that they don't even come close to the Brewers in Minor League depth. The Indians were considering taking "a larger volume of talent" from the Phillies, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
It's likely that the Mariners would entertain the same offers from the Phillies for Bedard, since they appear to be heading into rebuilding mode anyway. The Phillies' talent is mostly at the lower levels, which suits the Mariners just fine. Carlos Carrasco and Lou Marson would almost have to be locks in the deal, and that's far too high a price to pay. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays, also finalists in the Sabathia bidding, have better Minor League depth than the Phillies and might be even more susceptible to overpay for the overrated left-hander, since the Rays have a lot of competition in the AL East and the Dodgers could run away with the mediocre NL West.
The most alarming aspect of Bedard's season thus far is not the sudden change in batted ball tendencies, or the non-11 K-rate; it's his inability to pitch past the fifth inning. He's only pitched more than 5 innings seven times in his 15 starts in '08. He averages nearly 17 pitches per inning and, as a result, he's usually close to 100 by the time the end of the fifth inning rolls around. Bedard taxes the bullpen. The Mariners have three pitchers in the top-15 among American League relief pitchers in innings pitched: Sean Green (5th, 48 IP), Ryan Rowland-Smith (12th, 40.2 IP), and Mark Lowe (14th, 40.1 IP).
For teams like the Phillies, Rays, and Dodgers -- teams who have had great bullpen performances thus far -- it would be a frivolous burden on the bullpen to acquire a pitcher who is so obviously unlikely to take you past the fifth inning.
When all is said and done, it's a better decision to go after someone cheaper, like the Phillies did with Kyle Lohse last season. As Nick Underhill of I'm Writing Sports pointed out, the big trading deadline pitching acquisitions usually don't pan out too well anyway:
Outside of [Jeff] Weaver, Mike Torrez of the 1977 Yankees is the only other pitcher acquired at the deadline to win a World Series game, and since the strike only two pitchers acquired at the Deadline have won a postseason game: Oliver Perez for the 2006 Mets, and David Weathers for the 1996 Yankees.